The Italian government must decide by the end of the year on the future of the memorandum. The renewal is automatic unless one of the two parties notifies the other of the intention to withdraw. Translated: it is to leave that Rome must make a move, not to stay. It is one of the most cumbersome legacies of the agreement signed four years ago by Joseph Conteon which also weighs the accusation of poor coordination with the allies in Europe and across the Atlantic – which Giorgia Meloniprime minister, is trying to avoid today.
As summarized in the recent news regarding Taiwan and trade with China, two currents are being defined on the renewal of the memorandum: one at the Farnesina, the other at Palazzo Chigi. The first preaches prudence, arguing that a step back from the Silk Road could unleash a harsh reaction from Beijing like those it had, with coercive measures, against Australia (right on the Silk Road) and Lithuania (on Taiwan) . The memorandum, supporters of this line argue, would in fact be a dead letter given, as stated in the document signed in 2019, it “does not constitute an international agreement from which rights and obligations under international law may derive”.
Therefore, renewing it would be the best choice as it is less risky. The second defines the comparisons with Lithuania and Australia as excessive (Italy is a G7 country and such an answer would get a very harsh counter-reaction from the club, is the reasoning) and is determined to carry out what Meloni promised in electoral campaign (and therefore before the bilateral with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping in November, on the sidelines of the G20 in Bali, Indonesia): in an interview with the Taiwanese news agency Cna, he defined that agreement as a “big mistake” adding that “if I find myself having to sign the renewal of that memorandum tomorrow morning, I would hardly see the political conditions”.
Palazzo Chigi wants to make a decision before mid-May, when Meloni will meet the other leaders of the G7 in Hiroshima, a club in which Italy is the only member to have joined Beijing’s expansionist project. Another test for Italy’s international role and posture.
