Miscellaneous News

[Lethe]

And what is your suggestion? Invade Ukraine in 2014 instead with a much weaker economy? That coup was going to happen no matter what.

I don't know if there were alternate courses of action available that could have better secured Russia's interests at lower cost. But certainly I think that if you are going to make the decision to go to war, you should not half-ass the enterprise as they have done and are still doing. Russia should have at least two million troops in Ukraine right now, rotating from armed forces numbering at least ten million. The only compelling explanation I can see for Moscow's failure to mobilise resources to match their rhetoric is that the current regime in Moscow does not believe that it would survive the attempt, which is to say that they have failed to sell the citizenry on the importance of the enterprise, which is itself suggestive. Moscow is still trying to run this war like one of the west's "wars of convenience", with little impact on the home front. The only works when the power disparities are much greater than the (at best) 4:1 ratio Russia enjoys over Ukraine.

 

[Biscuits]

There is no such thing as defacto recognition of independence, because Taiwan is defacto independent with its own govt, military, currency, foreign policy. What is in dispute is dejure independence, and it's not something that even symbolic routine visits can formalize without triggering war. There are limits to what a one-day handshake and photo op can do...what Taiwan truly needs is security guarantee, not useless photo ops. US can't give that is a sign of US weakness too.

Independence comes from international recognition. Hezbollah has its own army and spokespeople, foreign policy etc does that make them de facto independent?

Even according to the core documents of the ROC itself, it clearly says that their aim is to win the Chinese civil war, not to establish an independent state on Chinese territory. In that sense, even the DPR or LPR is more de facto independent, because at least their mini-constitutions claim to be independent from Ukraine, whereas ROC doesn't even do that vis a vis China.

That makes them a group that seeks the overthrow of the country's legal authority and potentially a springboard for foreign invaders. Neither de facto nor de jure independence exist.

 

[CMP]

I don't know if there were alternate courses of action available that could have better secured Russia's interests at lower cost. But certainly I think that if you are going to make the decision to go to war, you should not half-ass the enterprise as they have done and are still doing. Russia should have at least two million troops in Ukraine right now, rotating from armed forces numbering at least ten million. The only compelling explanation I can think of for Moscow's failure to mobilise resources to match their rhetoric is that the current regime in Moscow does not believe that it would survive the attempt, which is to say that they failed to sell the citizenry on the importance of the enterprise, which is itself suggestive.

Regardless, Russia is achieving China's purpose. They have proven to the world that holdings in USD and USD-denominated assets are readily frozen and stolen, thus kicking off global de-dollarization. Furthermore they are serving as a strategic distraction for the US in particular and the West in general (not unlike the GWOT did). This gives more strategic breathing space to China in Asia. Lastly, their market has been turned over to China, which bolsters China's economic power and ability to fight the West on equal or superior terms.

So long as Russia doesn't lose, it doesn't especially matter for China if they win. If Russia gets into a position where a strategic loss seems likely, China will find a way to intervene indirectly via arms transfers from Iran, North Korea, The Stans, etc. Otherwise, an unending conflict serves China's interests just fine. It also gives China diplomatic leverage to take a leadership role in settling a peace, as they did for Iran and KSA.

 

[pmc]

I disagree; from Russia's perspective having Finland join NATO is a catastrophe, but it is embedded within the larger catastrophe of Moscow's failure in Ukraine. Being powerless to prevent it, the next best thing is to pretend that it is somehow not particularly important.

Ukraine was one of the closest country to Turkey and also a grain supplier. by taking down Ukraine Russia has removed that option from Turkey. Look up history of Arab flight embargo on Qatar for inciting seditions and Turkish troops movement and Iran opening airspace for Qatar. having two hostile countries like Turkey and Iran are too much for Arabs. Russia can take care of Europe once Ukraine and Turkey are out of picture. The longer the conflict the more confidence Russia has in business with Turkey.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1224319061003309056

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[Atomicfrog]

U.S Colonel MacGregor who is a frequent commentator about the Ukraine war on youtube and most of the time I agree and respect his comments in the subject, raised my eyebrows while acknowledging that China had the upper hand in a land war, in naval matters the PLAN was too scared to sail too far out of home waters in a combat situation because their ships/subs weren't that good and the men were undertrained.

PLAN in the first island chain is undefeatable but doing a power projection like the US is doing with their carrier fleets on the other side of the globe is another thing.

PLAN don't have the infrastructures abroad to do what the US navy is doing. For example, they cannot go camp with a strong enough force in the gulf of Mexico for half a year presently and do detterence. That I would talk is sailing far from home.

Saying that Chinese equipment/military are not good is standard US bravado... I'm sure than an old India colonel would say the same about India navy...

 

[CMP]

U.S Colonel MacGregor who is a frequent commentator about the Ukraine war on youtube and most of the time I agree and respect his comments in the subject, raised my eyebrows while acknowledging that China had the upper hand in a land war, in naval matters the PLAN was too scared to sail too far out of home waters in a combat situation because their ships/subs weren't that good and the men were undertrained.

He's Army, not Air Force and Navy, and he exited the service a very long time ago (2004). He has no idea how much China has taken the lead since last he had access to actual military intel. He was senior advisor to ACTING sec def for only 3 months, and likely did not have his strategic and military technical understanding (vis a vis China) updated during that very short term. That's barely enough time to onboard and offboard.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

He's Army, not Air Force and Navy, and he exited the service a very long time ago (2004). He has no idea how much China has taken the lead since last he had access to actual military intel.

So, when he last had actual direct access to high level military intel in 2004, already back then he recognized that China would have an upper hand in a land war?

More seriously, while access to direct high level military intel was probably lost in 2004 for him, he likely has been able to 'follow up' on intel from 'friends/former collegues etc.' although since he was from the army, most likely he is only really getting intel in regards to the army, and way less accurate or good intel in regards to airforce and navy.

I suppose that still is kind of a admission/view that the PLAGF might have an upper hand if it came to blows with the US Army, although that's kind of an ugh... not that realistic scenario.

 

[Fatty]

I don't get the hate for Macron. He is by far the most pro-China EU leader (besides Orban maybe). I watched the press conference of Xi and Macron and Macron was very positive and sincere. He hailed China's role in the Iran-Saudi peace deal, he welcomed the Silk road initiative, he hailed the many economic agreements signed, he stressed the necessity to elevate bilateral relations, he talked about the need for European autonomy, etc.
Of course he brought the Ukraine issue and human rights but not in a condescending tone. I think the meeting went really well.

It’s because he is Fr*nch

 

[pmc]

That french minister tweeted they separated with those photos, implying she probably got a ride. Also is that the subway? I thought that was the shuttle train in the airport.

he is Mayor of a town in France and he has 20 hours flight time on this Journey.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643644404509360131

 

[pevade]

Is that a garden I see in the middle of the table?

German flag where? LMAO