China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

Kalec

Junior Member
Registered Member
Based on the material you provided, I think they're under by a considerable margin.
Their report is kinda missing the forest for tree.

For example they are emphasizing the dual-use capability of DF-26 and giving them 54 nuclear warheads but it is very likely to be much more exaggerating than reality. Possibly because arm control nerdies are naturally discouraging all sort of dual use IRBM and hyping its threat.

Meanwhile they still believe that each brigade only operates around 6 launchers/missiles.
In their report, they count 12 DF-31 brigades and 3 DF-41 brigade as well as 90 DF-31 series missiles and 28 DF-41 missiles. Te be honest here that it is just illogical, how it is possible that DF-41 brigade is operating with more ICBM launchers than DF-31 brigades?

My estimation:
MissileNo. of brigadeNo. of missileNuclear warheads
DF-21A0Retired0
DF-265 or 6240/20 nuclear capable20
DF-5A166
DF-5B21248
DF-31 series9108108
DF-41 series784252
JL-2 series6 SSBNs7272
H-6NN/A10-2010-20
TotalN/A312526

2030 Prospect:
MissileNo. of brigadeNo. of missileNuclear warheads
DF-265 or 6240/20 nuclear capable20
DF-5B21248
DF-5C336216
DF-31 series35454
DF-4114168500
JL-2/JL-3 series8 SSBNs9696
Silo ICBM (DF-41)3320960
H-20N/A2020
TotalN/A708/688 if not counting DF-261914

Actually there is a lot of wiggle room on 2030 Prospect, for instance there could be a heavy solid ICBM to bring another 960 warheads into arsenal and enable MIRV capability on SLBM by reducing yield of each warheads.
 

clockwork

Junior Member
Registered Member
2030 Prospect:
MissileNo. of brigadeNo. of missileNuclear warheads
DF-265 or 6240/20 nuclear capable20
DF-5B21248
DF-5C336216
DF-31 series35454
DF-4114168500
JL-2/JL-3 series8 SSBNs9696
Silo ICBM (DF-41)3320960
H-20N/A2020
TotalN/A708/688 if not counting DF-261914
Not too bad of a conservative estimate for delivery system capacity with reasonable MIRV assumptions. Now when this can be realized just depends on production rate of the actual warheads (fissile material + assembly) and rockets. I'm decently bullish on both factors, I think this is probably doable by 2028 ish, maybe even earlier. That'd be much faster than US estimates, I'm not sure why they still don't want to admit that and instead say "1500 by 2035".
 

Taiban

Junior Member
Registered Member
Their report is kinda missing the forest for tree.

For example they are emphasizing the dual-use capability of DF-26 and giving them 54 nuclear warheads but it is very likely to be much more exaggerating than reality. Possibly because arm control nerdies are naturally discouraging all sort of dual use IRBM and hyping its threat.

Meanwhile they still believe that each brigade only operates around 6 launchers/missiles.
In their report, they count 12 DF-31 brigades and 3 DF-41 brigade as well as 90 DF-31 series missiles and 28 DF-41 missiles. Te be honest here that it is just illogical, how it is possible that DF-41 brigade is operating with more ICBM launchers than DF-31 brigades?

My estimation:
MissileNo. of brigadeNo. of missileNuclear warheads
DF-21A0Retired0
DF-265 or 6240/20 nuclear capable20
DF-5A166
DF-5B21248
DF-31 series9108108
DF-41 series784252
JL-2 series6 SSBNs7272
H-6NN/A10-2010-20
TotalN/A312526

2030 Prospect:
MissileNo. of brigadeNo. of missileNuclear warheads
DF-265 or 6240/20 nuclear capable20
DF-5B21248
DF-5C336216
DF-31 series35454
DF-4114168500
JL-2/JL-3 series8 SSBNs9696
Silo ICBM (DF-41)3320960
H-20N/A2020
TotalN/A708/688 if not counting DF-261914

Actually there is a lot of wiggle room on 2030 Prospect, for instance there could be a heavy solid ICBM to bring another 960 warheads into arsenal and enable MIRV capability on SLBM by reducing yield of each warheads.
7 DF41 may not be fully operational today while I agree with your other estimates
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Their report is kinda missing the forest for tree.

For example they are emphasizing the dual-use capability of DF-26 and giving them 54 nuclear warheads but it is very likely to be much more exaggerating than reality. Possibly because arm control nerdies are naturally discouraging all sort of dual use IRBM and hyping its threat.

Meanwhile they still believe that each brigade only operates around 6 launchers/missiles.
In their report, they count 12 DF-31 brigades and 3 DF-41 brigade as well as 90 DF-31 series missiles and 28 DF-41 missiles. Te be honest here that it is just illogical, how it is possible that DF-41 brigade is operating with more ICBM launchers than DF-31 brigades?

My estimation:
MissileNo. of brigadeNo. of missileNuclear warheads
DF-21A0Retired0
DF-265 or 6240/20 nuclear capable20
DF-5A166
DF-5B21248
DF-31 series9108108
DF-41 series784252
JL-2 series6 SSBNs7272
H-6NN/A10-2010-20
TotalN/A312526

2030 Prospect:
MissileNo. of brigadeNo. of missileNuclear warheads
DF-265 or 6240/20 nuclear capable20
DF-5B21248
DF-5C336216
DF-31 series35454
DF-4114168500
JL-2/JL-3 series8 SSBNs9696
Silo ICBM (DF-41)3320960
H-20N/A2020
TotalN/A708/688 if not counting DF-261914

Actually there is a lot of wiggle room on 2030 Prospect, for instance there could be a heavy solid ICBM to bring another 960 warheads into arsenal and enable MIRV capability on SLBM by reducing yield of each warheads.

so silo DF-41 ICBM brigade is about 107 missile each ?

Why would China reduce the number DF-31 series, DF-31B/C is still potent and modern to deal with regional countries, including India and Australia
 

Kalec

Junior Member
Registered Member
7 DF41 may not be fully operational today while I agree with your other estimates
To my count, 641, 644, 645, 651, 652, 664 is very likely to be DF-41 brigade and 647 is a potential candidate. You are right that they might not be fully operational but the estimation won't change that much in overall warheads count.

The main indicator is the 23m garage to house the 21m DF-41.
For example, 652 brigade garrison here.
_5G6}KGD0BKY57_~]2CTBJP.png

so silo DF-41 ICBM brigade is about 107 missile each ?

Why would China reduce the number DF-31 series, DF-31B/C is still potent and modern to deal with regional countries, including India and Australia
Yumen 120 silos, Hami 110 silos, Ordos 90 silos.

DF-26/27 could deal with regional nuclear demand and it doesn't count in arm control meanwhile DF-31 definitely will be counted as launcher/missile in arm control and not very potent on MIRV and survivability.
 

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
FAS has published its 2023 China nuclear report, bring warhead count from 350 to 410 though not entirely accurate and having many errors.

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According to the discussion on Weibo, the survey report is basically of no reference value.
This is just a simple statistics of the number of missiles appearing at the military parade.
他甚至不愿意让载具数量能被12整除
They(or "he",this should be a clerical error) don't even want the number of vehicles divisible by 12
 

Kalec

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am not sure of the ICBMs deployed in those new silos will be DF-41s. The USDoD seems to indicate that the silo-based ICBMs would be DF-31 series instead of DF-41.
It is funny that DOD went from "they never deploy more than 50 DF-31 over two decades." to "Massive DF-31 silo so it can't reach Florida."

Also the silo diameter is around 4.3 to 4.5 meters, enough room for a variety of ICBM in theory.


Silo lid is around 4.5m if the width of truck is 2.5m based on recent satellite image.

For comparison, MM silo has a diameter of 3.7m and enough for a 2.34m Peacekeeper when cold launched. Generally a smaller silo is cheaper and more blast-resist than a larger silo, so I personally believe PLARF will load heavy ICBM into them instead of 2m-class DF-41, which a 4.3m silo is an overkill for ICBM in its size.
1678834624960.png
 

David78

Just Hatched
Registered Member
It seems the estuary of the Tumen river could potentially be a good location for China' SSBN base. What difficulties have stopped China from building a base there?
 
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