PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[drowingfish]

To sum it up, the US intends for the First Island Chain (FIC) to become a missile wall directly aimed at China's core. The wall is going to be bristled with hundreds of long-range missile launchers dotted along the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan and the Philippines.

These long-range missiles will be deployed for:
1. Attacking PLAN warships from very huge distances away, effectively turning them into sea-denial weapons to prevent PLAN warships from even leaving their naval bases;
2. First-strikes against PLA military bases, stations and installations along the Chinese coastline and the inland regions of China, considering the range, which effectively reduces the strategic depth that the PLA could use; and
3. Most importantly, directly attacking the industrial sites and transportation infrastructures along the Chinese coastline and the inland regions of China, thus aiming to significantly impact China's war effort and war-waging potential.

In short, this wall wants to firmly lock China from even accessing the China Seas, let alone the WestPac. This is not yet excluding the possibility where these missiles could be employed as weapons of terror against the Chinese civilian population.

Besides, there is also the problem where the US Marines are working to disperse along the FIC using quick-action task forces, where they can set up temporary bases anywhere along the FIC to house and operate F-35Bs and long-range missile launchers. This would also complicates China's war-fighting effort, as more resources have to be put into finding and eliminating them on-time.

Hence, this situation (the proliferation of long-range missiles along the FIC) will become a huge, potent and acute strategic-level threat against China. This is with the background knowledge where in case China initiates AR over Taiwan, the US is definitely going to push those along the wall i.e. Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines into becoming war damage sponges for the US against China.

Something seriously needs to be done in order to promptly and effectively address this acute problem for China. Things ain't looking good TBH...

lmao i have been saying all along that those ventures around guam and all that meant nothing cuz in a real conflict it would be questionable if the Chinese navy could get out of FIC, people didnt believe me XD. the only way a Chinese carrier group could be penetrate FIC would be if it transited into the pacific before the war, and hopes that it doesnt run out of supply before a corridor can be established for resupply.

 

[TK3600]

current- China is still a coastal power. Can defeat Taiwan if no inference at all.
2035- China is a mature power. Has a higher chance of claiming Taiwan even with inference.
2050- China is at prime time. Can push everyone back including U.S to Hawaii line.

5th gen jet- China is behind many years.
6th gen jet- China is almost neck to neck with the U.S
7th gen jet- maybe China will debut theirs first.

2050 is a much better time to reclaim Taiwan since China got the Brics support, Brics currency or alternative currency, nominal GDP surpassed U.S by 25% or more. 7th gen fighter jet and weapons.

Zzzz 2050 China will have double the nominal gdp of USA, and maybe even moved past its prime lol.

I would rate current 2023 China as stronger than US comprehensively. This factors in stability, economics, and leadership quality. This is evident by the fact US can't even jump start production of artillery shell in short notice. However I would not rate China as stronger militarily. The US cold war era legacy too strong. Most of US military power is based on that legacy, including bulk of its detroyer fleet, most of their carriers, and the kick start of 5th gen fighter. What China needs is to make sure that cold war legacy is obsolete, because current US cannot match the production speed of China, and soon not even quality of production. But these post war production is a minority of US military power, it is important to wait out the cold war stuff retirement and all of a sudden US has to rebuild their entire force again, and they cant. See the 300 ship navy plan and the struggle.

USA is really a lot similar to Russia in some sense. Its current power is feeding on its past. They are too corrupt to wake up until they run into a little rude awakening. China's job is to make sure should US wake up they will not have the chance to catch up leisurely like Russia in Ukraine.

 

[Overbom]

If a colour revolution on Taiwan finishes the ROC, then the Philippines is unlikely to allow US forces to begin an unprovoked attack on China from bases there and make itself a target.

That's some high-grade hopium. When the boss is going to attack the vassals don't have the right to disagree. Philippines, although in the periphery, its still empire territory after all

 

[Overbom]

China is a great power now, and it has a leader in Mr Xi who actually has it behaving like a great power, all it needs now is for the Chinese people to also believe that the PRC is a GREAT POWER.

You have to show that national reunification and national security will have zero compromise and watch the neighbours fall in line, you have to show will.

Wake me up when military spending per gdp reaches 3%. Until then, all this behaving like a super power or all that, its just a smokescreen. Superpowers are first defined by their military capabilities before anything else.

Even now, no one is saying that China is a superpower, even with its huge economy. There is a reason for that. If you are not the undisputed military overlord of your region then you dont even have the qualifications to even enter the conversation of being a superpower

 

[Serb]

current- China is still a coastal power. Can defeat Taiwan if no inference at all.
2035- China is a mature power. Has a higher chance of claiming Taiwan even with inference.
2050- China is at prime time. Can push everyone back including U.S to Hawaii line.

5th gen jet- China is behind many years.
6th gen jet- China is almost neck to neck with the U.S
7th gen jet- maybe China will debut theirs first.

2050 is a much better time to reclaim Taiwan since China got the Brics support, Brics currency or alternative currency, nominal GDP surpassed U.S by 25% or more. 7th gen fighter jet and weapons.

This is a very crazy take because even American extremists and imperial hubris militarists don't think like that anymore.

 

[Paradigm]

I've read arguments and counter-arguments about when US will (still a yes, no, maybe in my book) be starting a war with China. Nowhere have I seen anyone talking about the continuing trend of "enemies", ... and allies dumping US treasuries by the hundreds of billions and counting. Couple that with what seem to be an inevitable recession that's going to make 2008 look like a hiccup. That has got to be the most important equation when talking about a shooting war.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

To sum it up, the US intends for the First Island Chain (FIC) to become a missile wall directly aimed at China's core. The wall is going to be bristled with hundreds of long-range missile launchers dotted along the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan and the Philippines.

These long-range missiles will be deployed for:
1. Attacking PLAN warships from very huge distances away, effectively turning them into sea-denial weapons to prevent PLAN warships from even leaving their naval bases;
2. First-strikes against PLA military bases, stations and installations along the Chinese coastline and the inland regions of China, considering the range, which effectively reduces the strategic depth that the PLA could use; and
3. Most importantly, directly attacking the industrial sites and transportation infrastructures along the Chinese coastline and the inland regions of China, thus aiming to significantly impact China's war effort and war-waging potential.

In short, this wall wants to firmly lock China from even accessing the China Seas, let alone the WestPac. This is not yet excluding the possibility where these missiles could be employed as weapons of terror against the Chinese civilian population.

Besides, there is also the problem where the US Marines are working to disperse along the FIC using quick-action task forces, where they can set up temporary bases anywhere along the FIC to house and operate F-35Bs and long-range missile launchers. This would also complicates China's war-fighting effort, as more resources have to be put into finding and eliminating them on-time.

Hence, this situation (the proliferation of long-range missiles along the FIC) will become a huge, potent and acute strategic-level threat against China. This is with the background knowledge where in case China initiates AR over Taiwan, the US is definitely going to push those along the wall i.e. Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines into becoming war damage sponges for the US against China.

Something seriously needs to be done in order to promptly and effectively address this acute problem for China. Things ain't looking good TBH...

TELs on the 1st island chain are not the same as TELs in mainland China! the survivability of TELs rests with their mobility and their ability to cover and conceal themselves after firing. There is no room for maneuver on a small island, there is barely any cover. Meanwhile in mainland China there are something like 10k+ 2 lane tunnels that can be used as TEL bases, along with forests, urban cover, mountains, etc.

imagine Russia put Iskanders on Snake Island. Are they as effective as Iskanders driving around in the forest near Belgorod? Not even close. Likewise launchers on Ryukyu islands are useless. Taiwan is both too small and too close. Putting missiles there just means that they get wiped in the first strike.

Philippines is the big threat since it is far away enough where a first strike can't effectively hit them before they launch, you can't intercept them in boost phase, and has substantial cover in jungle, mountain and urban areas. Luckily, Philippines only covers the southern axis. To solve this problem will require some diplomatic wisdom and accepting the fact that there'll be hits getting through, you just have to hit them even harder.

This of course rests on the assumption of effective enemy IRBMs. this does not exist. subsonic cruise missiles just do not react fast enough in a second strike scenario, and flying over the ocean means no terrain masking.

 

[Overbom]

I've read arguments and counter-arguments about when US will (still a yes, no, maybe in my book) be starting a war with China. Nowhere have I seen anyone talking about the continuing trend of "enemies", ... and allies dumping US treasuries by the hundreds of billions and counting. Couple that with what seem to be an inevitable recession that's going to make 2008 look like a hiccup. That has got to be the most important equation when talking about a shooting war.

Nobody talks about that because that's a long term problem whereas the Taiwan issue could easily result at a war in this decade

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Wake me up when military spending per gdp reaches 3%. Until then, all this behaving like a super power or all that, its just a smokescreen. Superpowers are first defined by their military capabilities before anything else.

Even now, no one is saying that China is a superpower, even with its huge economy. There is a reason for that. If you are not the undisputed military overlord of your region then you dont even have the qualifications to even enter the conversation of being a superpower

The public budget is just a number. What are the actual results on the ground?

 

[Rafi]

Wake me up when military spending per gdp reaches 3%. Until then, all this behaving like a super power or all that, its just a smokescreen. Superpowers are first defined by their military capabilities before anything else.

Even now, no one is saying that China is a superpower, even with its huge economy. There is a reason for that. If you are not the undisputed military overlord of your region then you dont even have the qualifications to even enter the conversation of being a superpower

Yeah I call BS China is already a superpower, when the world hegemon, has serious doubts about prevailing in a conflict then you are defo a superpower, and I think in the modern age, a total aggregate of national power makes you a superpower.