J-XY/J-35 carrier-borne fighter thread

[Andy1974]

J-35/J-31/J-XY will be the first world-class military aircraft China offers to the world. It will be technologically advanced and relatively expensive too. It would also represent a milestone of sort in China's arms export.

It's the first aircraft that has been conceived and designed from start for both Chinese military and export market. It will be at the cutting-edge of what China needs and what much of the world militaries desire.

We've seen that China has steadily exported more advanced defense platforms these days, many of them currently in service with PLA, including 054A, 039, J-10C, as well as a whole suite of missiles and munitions. J-35/J-31/J-XY would be yet another step up. It would significantly raise the profile of China as a major arms exporter.

But the sales of an advanced stealth aircraft would have strategic and geopolitical implications. The potential customers and market are therefore rather limited. China's traditional arms clients are mostly third-world developing countries, such as Pakistan, Algeria, Egypt, Thailand etc. For more advanced and expensive equipment such as J-35/J-31/J-XY, you need relatively wealthy clients. Take into account all the international politics, Middle East countries are probably the most likely and promising targets. We know UAE has suspended the purchase of F-35 from the US due to the latter's intervention into UAE's relationship with China. Saudi Arabia is yet another traditional customer for Chinese arms (missiles, drones etc.) and appears to expand the scope of their arms import from China lately. Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries, are also in the process of rebalancing their relationship with the US/West and starting to tilt more towards China and the East. It's not difficult to imagine they would consider more advanced arms purchase from China to strengthen the relationship. Finally, Iran might also be a customer in the longer term.

Meanwhile, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the relatively poor performance of Russia military may also have negative impact on the prospect of future Russian military export with some of its traditional client countries.

All these bode well for the prospect of future J-35/J-31/J-XY export and it would be wise for China to invest more efforts to developing and cultivating these relationships.

China said they will not create security imbalances, rather solve them.

What I think this means is they would not sell J-35 to Pakistan for example, because those countries aren’t really threatened by fifth gen’s. If India got the F35 then the sale would happen, to balance the security situation.

Saudi, and the GCC are very much threatened by F-35s in their neighborhood, hence the vital need for J-35 to balance the security situation, a key tenet of the GSI.

 

[tphuang]

For the past 50 years, only America has been able to offer high end military hardware across the board and high tech civilian stuff. Now, they have competition in China. China is now able to not only offer missiles and UAVs but military hardware across the board. They are also able to offer 5g infrastructure, cloud infrastructure, AI infrastructure, cyber technology and all the modern tech that a country like Saudi Arabia would want. Ever since America withdrew from Afghanistan, Middle Eastern countries have been looking for someone to fill that security void. The Russians are clearly unable to fill that role. That's why they are turning to China in droves.

I continually read that on top of the UAV/anti-drone/missile sales, they are also about to sell combined arms brigade to Saudi Arabia. It's quite possible they will sign off on this when Xi visits the Gulf in December. When you buy a whole system/network like that, then you are dependent on China to provide your defense infrastructure and operational philosophy and to advise you on how to train and fight. The only thing missing in that entire package is a 5th generation aircraft. So make no mistake that if Saudi Arabia is buying this much from China, they are also likely going to buy 5th gen from China. I would expect Algeria, UAE and other muslim countries to follow suit. When you are making this kind of security arrangement with China, then you are allying yourself with China. That's why you see some freaked out American officials throwing around threats in the Middle East right now. The allure of petro-yuan and gas-yuan is a very big deal. Energy exporting countries that align themselves with China is a big deal. Having Muslim world align themselves with China is a big deal. There is rumors of Saudis possibly allowing Chinese oil companies to invest in Aramco. That's a huge deal.

We've started the debate of whether or not China will order land version of J-35. I think they have to. If you are going to export it, then other countries expect you to also be operating it. I don't think just ordering 500 naval version is sufficient.

I'm expect J-35s to join service by 2025 and export to start shortly after that. If they are going to export so much of the other stuff to Middle Eastern countries, then they need to also be exporting 5th gen as soon as possible. That also means having Middle Eastern countries buying L-15s and holding regular training exercises with PLAAF.

 

[TK3600]

For the past 50 years, only America has been able to offer high end military hardware across the board and high tech civilian stuff. Now, they have competition in China. China is now able to not only offer missiles and UAVs but military hardware across the board. They are also able to offer 5g infrastructure, cloud infrastructure, AI infrastructure, cyber technology and all the modern tech that a country like Saudi Arabia would want. Ever since America withdrew from Afghanistan, Middle Eastern countries have been looking for someone to fill that security void. The Russians are clearly unable to fill that role. That's why they are turning to China in droves.

I continually read that on top of the UAV/anti-drone/missile sales, they are also about to sell combined arms brigade to Saudi Arabia. It's quite possible they will sign off on this when Xi visits the Gulf in December. When you buy a whole system/network like that, then you are dependent on China to provide your defense infrastructure and operational philosophy and to advise you on how to train and fight. The only thing missing in that entire package is a 5th generation aircraft. So make no mistake that if Saudi Arabia is buying this much from China, they are also likely going to buy 5th gen from China. I would expect Algeria, UAE and other muslim countries to follow suit. When you are making this kind of security arrangement with China, then you are allying yourself with China. That's why you see some freaked out American officials throwing around threats in the Middle East right now. The allure of petro-yuan and gas-yuan is a very big deal. Energy exporting countries that align themselves with China is a big deal. Having Muslim world align themselves with China is a big deal. There is rumors of Saudis possibly allowing Chinese oil companies to invest in Aramco. That's a huge deal.

We've started the debate of whether or not China will order land version of J-35. I think they have to. If you are going to export it, then other countries expect you to also be operating it. I don't think just ordering 500 naval version is sufficient.

I'm expect J-35s to join service by 2025 and export to start shortly after that. If they are going to export so much of the other stuff to Middle Eastern countries, then they need to also be exporting 5th gen as soon as possible. That also means having Middle Eastern countries buying L-15s and holding regular training exercises with PLAAF.

I can see an argument made that sufficient demand for export create economy of scale, and that is attractive to Chinese airforce. However there are precedent of American F-18 being used only for naval yet have good export success.

 

[Blitzo]

I can see an argument made that sufficient demand for export create economy of scale, and that is attractive to Chinese airforce. However there are precedent of American F-18 being used only for naval yet have good export success.

That precedent does exist, but we should recall in the case of the standard F-18, nearly 1500 were produced the vast majority being for the US itself.

Even in the case of the super hornet, the US have operated over 600 itself with only a few dozen for overseas customers.


Ultimately, if the PLAAF weren't pursuing a land based J-XY/35 variant for themselves to begin with, then perhaps the standard carrier based J-XY/35 would make sense as the basis for an export product just because it wouldn't make sense to develop a dedicated land based airframe for export.

But seeing as the PLAAF are pursuing a land based variant for themselves, this is a bit of a moot point.

 

[stannislas]

Ultimately, if the PLAAF weren't pursuing a land based J-XY/35 variant for themselves to begin with, then perhaps the standard carrier based J-XY/35 would make sense as the basis for an export product just because it wouldn't make sense to develop a dedicated land based airframe for export.

uhmm, I think there was a documentation or something in last or last last airshow??? said that FC-31 and J-35 are seperate design team now, so i guess the export the version could be based on FC-31 V2.0? just like JF-17. For example some middle east country are willing to pay for the development cost, I guess SAC would be happy to custome design a 5th gen fighter for them

 

[Blitzo]

uhmm, I think there was a documentation or something in last or last last airshow??? said that FC-31 and J-35 are seperate design team now, so i guess the export the version could be based on FC-31 V2.0? just like JF-17. For example some middle east country are willing to pay for the development cost, I guess SAC would be happy to custome design a 5th gen fighter for them

We don't know. There's nothing concrete yet.

If they do build a dedicated standalone variant for export customers that is structurally different to any PLA domestic variant, then more power to them, but it also makes me doubt that SAC/AVIC would do development for it wholly on their own dime and would likely want a prospective buyer invested into the project.

I suppose if the Gulf states really are buying it, then they would have the money to fund development of such a variant... but then questions arise like:
- who would own the IP if AVIC/SAC wants to offer the developed-export variant to other customers around the world?
- would China be happy to use the important aerospace engineering resources at SAC for developing a bespoke export variant instead of just telling prospective customers to buy an export variant derived from the PLAAF's land based variant instead?
- all of the funding complexities and contract negotiations for such a complex project, with nation/s that China has not had a history of long term strategic partnership with for being able to base such a project on (such as say Pakistan when the JF-17 project emerged)

 

[stannislas]

- who would own the IP if AVIC/SAC wants to offer the developed-export variant to other customers around the world?

Let's see, the current arrangement for the JF-17 is that Pakistan is responsible for production and AVIC is responsible for R&D and exporting some key components of the JF-17, so even if Pakistan wanted to sell the JF-17 to someone else, China would have to agree and support it, and I think it would be the same for exporting the FC-31, so it wouldn't be a problem.

- would China be happy to use the important aerospace engineering resources at SAC for developing a bespoke export variant instead of just telling prospective customers to buy an export variant derived from the PLAAF's land based variant instead?

Well, we now have the carrier based J-35, which is almost 100% sure to enter the PLANAF in the near future, and the FC-31 V2.0, which is still looking for export. For export, lets assume it will be a land based version as the countries that currently have carriers do not need to buy stealth fighters from China, so it will have to develop from the FC-31 V2.0.

For China, I think they are willing to repeat the VT-4/VT-5/JF-17 thing again with the FC-31 V2.0 and they know it will be easier to sell the equipment if its name appears on the PLA's service list, that's why the VT-4 is also known these days as the 99AE type... So we may have seen a land-based stealth aircraft called the J-35SE exported to Saudi in the future, but in fact he was developed from the FC-31 V2.0

- all of the funding complexities and contract negotiations for such a complex project, with nation/s that China has not had a history of long term strategic partnership with for being able to base such a project on (such as say Pakistan when the JF-17 project emerged)

well, china sold DF-3 and DF-21 to Saudi despite they are the US alian, if Xi's visit in December brings a huge RMB-oil deal, I think it is very likely, as the Saudis may then face a threat to US security that they have never faced before

 

[Blitzo]

Let's see, the current arrangement for the JF-17 is that Pakistan is responsible for production and AVIC is responsible for R&D and exporting some key components of the JF-17, so even if Pakistan wanted to sell the JF-17 to someone else, China would have to agree and support it, and I think it would be the same for exporting the FC-31, so it wouldn't be a problem.

Yes, and there is no indication China would have the same relationship for an export J-XY/35 variant.

Well, we now have the carrier based J-35, which is almost 100% sure to enter the PLANAF in the near future, and the FC-31 V2.0, which is still looking for export. For export, lets assume it will be a land based version as the countries that currently have carriers do not need to buy stealth fighters from China, so it will have to develop from the FC-31 V2.0.

For China, I think they are willing to repeat the VT-4/VT-5/JF-17 thing again with the FC-31 V2.0 and they know it will be easier to sell the equipment if its name appears on the PLA's service list, that's why the VT-4 is also known these days as the 99AE type... So we may have seen a land-based stealth aircraft called the J-35SE exported to Saudi in the future, but in fact he was developed from the FC-31 V2.0

well, china sold DF-3 and DF-21 to Saudi despite they are the US alian, if Xi's visit in December brings a huge RMB-oil deal, I think it is very likely, as the Saudis may then face a threat to US security that they have never faced before

I'm not saying it is impossible, but I am saying that it isn't quite as straight forward as some people are making it out to be.

And I think that if the gulf states want a 5th gen medium weight fighter, the most practical solution and one that involves least risk, least cost, least duplication of effort for all parties involved, would be simply an export variant of the PLAAF's land based variant.


I really cannot see what sort of unique structural modifications the gulf states might want that the PLAAF's land based variant would be unable to meet, that would be worth the cost of fronting up the full development of a whole variant of a 5th gen fighter.

 

[stannislas]

I really cannot see what sort of unique structural modifications the gulf states might want that the PLAAF's land based variant would be unable to meet, that would be worth the cost of fronting up the full development of a whole variant of a 5th gen fighter.

Of course, if PLAAF had a land-based J-35 right now, then with some minor modification, its export version would be in the most cost-effective state you mention. But the reality is that only the carrier based varient of the J-35 is currently in development under the PLANAF's specs, the only road-based varient is the export oriented FC-31.

To convert into a land-based varient, the J-35 would need to be stripped of all its naval-specific equipments, as well as the reinforcement structures used for take off and land on aircraft carriers, this is no less difficult than redesigning a configuration.. The FC-31, on the other hand, would require a lot of additional equipments to reach the level of the J-20 and J-35, which is also not a very simple task of course, but much simpler than reverting the J-35 to its original land-based state and changing the airframe structure from scratch.

There are rumors say that the development of the J-35 will progress at a similar pace to the 003, and the J-35 will complete its final tests on the 003. This will bring the J-35's IOC time to around 2025. My view has always been that the PLAAF's procurement of the J-35 Air Force varient will largely depend on the actual performance of the J-35, especially after J-20 production rate reach 70+ per year, and likely to get even higher these days. If, hypothetically, the PLAAF were to finally go through with its evaluation and decide to procure a certain number of land-based varient, the time would come in 2027 or 2028 in any case. For the export customer, if they decide to buy a stealth fighter from China earlier, say 2025, then they might get a medium-sized stealth fighter even prior to the PLAAF, and this may lead into airforce version been developed from this varient.

So, in terms of timing and workload, the odds are that the export version is highly unlikely to be derived from the current J-35, but may well actually be developed from the FC-31, either as an Air Force version and then as a export varient, or as a export version and then as an Air Force version.

 

[Deino]

By the way, besides all these speculations about a dedicated export, a twin-seater and/or a PLAAF version, are there any news about the J-35? Was a third prototype spotted already and even more any conclusions about the two "whatever they are" at Huangdicun? Are the mock-ups only (IMO most likely) or true prototypes?

PS ... allegedly a new image