Chinese Economics Thread

hans_r

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First of all, if we're talking BSJZ, then why are use using China's 75%? Those are modernized places and not the average, unfortunately. Secondly, what is the point of comparing all teenagers rather than teenagers who went to school? The ones that go to school are the ones that determine a nation's future. China's BSJZ has a higher sheer number and a higher average in that sheer number. This is probably your stupidest argument yet. In addition to you not showing a substantially higher high school attendance rate in MA compared to BSJZ, even if it were assumed to be true, the situation would still be way more Chinese students counted on a way higher average among those counted. There's nothing that would swing in favor of the US.
Because aggregates matter - people that don't participate in education still exist and live in the country - they just won't be productive workers.
Read what study? You didn't cite jack shit.
Ahh you missed the link originally. TL;DR, US students don't give any effort into low-stakes tests but students in China do so PISA scores for the US are biased downwards and scores for China are unbiased (and this is known because when you pay students for good test scores, US student performance increases but it doesn't in China)
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No, you said irreparable damage. If it goes up again, that's not irreparable damage. Take my link and drag the years out; China's still going up with COVID being a blip. Even the US with its multiple recessions dones't just go down in one direction.
Yes, indeed. Take the moving average of GDP growth. It's been going down.
Take what?? You can't cite things? What forecast level? Who did the forecast? Real life, real economy with recessions vs no recessions is where I'm at.
The US Article IV IMF report in 2019 forecast the US economy to be ~8.2% larger in end 2022 than it was in start 2019 and the US GDP level in 2022 will be ~7.5% larger (penciling in ~2.5% Y/Y growth for 2022). Largely on track, if you use CBO estimates from 2019, the US is a tad above estimated levels.
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Meanwhile, as it relates to China, the IMF forecasted China's economy to be ~26% larger in end 2022 than it was in start 2019 and assuming 4% growth in China for 2022, China's economy will be 21% larger in end 2022 than in start 2019 or 5% smaller than forecast. What's more: since the IMF has historically underestimated GDP growth in China (see the back pages of the report); the actual harm of fanatical zero-COVID on China is substantially larger than 5%
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Zero COVID has sent China's GDP growth and GDP levels on a permanently lower trajectory and barely dented the United States; any supply shock (such as fanatical zero COVID) tends to send GDP growth forever lower (
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).
Was the student too "sleepy?" LOL Here's the caveat; if the thinks that he's too stupid to pass the class anyway or if the teacher is out to get him and will fail him anyway, he will not make an effort. Then you ask him if he wanted to succeed and he says yes, but you call him a liar because you can't let his free answer ruin your image of what you want to believe.
Nah, it was mostly an example of when revealed preferences with any level of cost(participating in political activities) speak more meaningfully to intent and degree than survey based approaches ever could (passing/hating the other political party.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Because aggregates matter - people that don't participate in education still exist and live in the country - they just won't be productive workers.
No. We need restaurant workers, cleaners, factory workers, etc... We can't have everyone become a PhD and say they're either the boss or they don't work. For the nth time, society is led and guided by the top echleons, and China's top scores higher than America's top and there's more of them. There's no way for you to escape that reality. You are spinning away so hard you're asking about the kids who are not in high school in a competition for kids in high school... between 2 places where almost everyone goes to high school. It's so sad...

But also, you haven't even proven a significant increase in high school participation in MA.
Ahh you missed the link originally. TL;DR, US students don't give any effort into low-stakes tests but students in China do so PISA scores for the US are biased downwards and scores for China are unbiased (and this is known because when you pay students for good test scores, US student performance increases but it doesn't in China)
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Study shows that with incentives, scores rose in the US but not really in China, but even with the risen scores, America is still far behind China. Also, the incentive in the US was $1 a question and in China, it was 1 RMB a question. That's an absolute joke to Chinese kids; you can hardly eat a bowl of noodles for the money you'd earn on this test. Try giving American kids a quarter a question; they might be too insulted to take it. I find it hilarious that America was so stung by the results that it wrote 18 pages of excuses and this is certainly not the only one. Winners win. Losers make excuses... many many excuses.
Yes, indeed.
Yes, what? Didn't ask a question, didn't agree with you.
Take the moving average of GDP growth. It's been going down.
That's cus China's still in COVID. Irreparable means that even afterwards, it cannot recover and China has shown recovery even mid COVID. It's just not complete because COVID isn't over. "Irreparable" has been proven wrong over and over and not just by China.
The US Article IV IMF report in 2019 forecast the US economy to be ~8.2% larger in end 2022 than it was in start 2019 and the US GDP level in 2022 will be ~7.5% larger (penciling in ~2.5% Y/Y growth for 2022). Largely on track, if you use CBO estimates from 2019, the US is a tad above estimated levels.
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Meanwhile, as it relates to China, the IMF forecasted China's economy to be ~26% larger in end 2022 than it was in start 2019 and assuming 4% growth in China for 2022, China's economy will be 21% larger in end 2022 than in start 2019 or 5% smaller than forecast. What's more: since the IMF has historically underestimated GDP growth in China (see the back pages of the report); the actual harm of fanatical zero-COVID on China is substantially larger than 5%
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LOLOL You slapping yourself is so funny. America suffered 2, upcoming 3 recessions with over 1 million deaths to grow 7.5% while China suffered 5K deaths, with no recessions to grow 21% in the same timespan... and you want to convince us that China had the wrong policy to COVID compared to the US??

I warned you not to slap yourself; I told you reality matters, not projections, but you did it anyway.
Zero COVID has sent China's GDP growth and GDP levels on a permanently lower trajectory and barely dented the United States; any supply shock (such as fanatical zero COVID) tends to send GDP growth forever lower (
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).
Projections don't matter; reality matters. And China is still in Zero COVID; for you to say anything "permanent," Zero COVID has to have been removed without a coupled rebound from China. You're trying to call the game early cus you're scared of what's coming up.
Nah, it was mostly an example of when revealed preferences with any level of cost(participating in political activities) speak more meaningfully to intent and degree than survey based approaches ever could (passing/hating the other political party.
Nah, it's that you can't handle the truth so you need to change other people's very clear words to make a more comfortable truth for yourself.
 
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hans_r

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No. We need restaurant workers, cleaners, factory workers, etc... We can't have everyone become a PhD and say they're either the boss or they don't work. For the nth time, society is led and guided by the top echleons, and China's top scores higher than America's top and there's more of them.
Nah, you haven't proven that. All we've proven with the PISA back and forth is that aggregate measures (such as mean PISA scores) between comparable subgroup populations are largely similar. Other evidence points against your hypothesis of younger cohorts being standard deviations above the rest - China has lower rates of bachelor degree attainment than the United States and similar levels of STEM degree attainment in youth cohorts.
LOLOL You slapping yourself is so funny. America suffered 2, upcoming 3 recessions with over 1 million deaths to grow 7.5% while China suffered 5K deaths, with no recessions to grow 21% in the same timespan... and you want to convince us that China had the wrong policy to COVID compared to the US??

I warned you not to slap yourself; I told you reality matters, not projections, but you did it anyway.
Indeed. China has a much lower GDP per capita which itself lends it to faster catch-up growth. China has both grown substantially slower in the 2020-2022 period than the immediate preceeding period and slower to comparable Asian Tiger economies at similar levels of development. Meanwhile, the US has grown at similar rates in 2020-2022 and grown faster to comparable DMs/high-income economies.

To know how much fanatical zero COVID matters to harming economic growth - you would need to know how much GDP would be without zero COVID and how much it would be with zero COVID. IMF forecasts tend to be largely accurate with fairly consistent biases (overestimating US growth, underestimating China's growth); so when China's actual performance undershoots IMF performance, that's more than enough evidence of mass economic wreckage and lost growth that fanatical zero COVID has caused.
Projections don't matter; reality matters. And China is still in Zero COVID; for you to say anything "permanent," Zero COVID has to have been removed without a coupled rebound from China. You're trying to call the game early cus you're scared of what's coming up.
If zero-COVID is the goal; then the shock will be permanent. Viruses do not automatically decrease in mortality and virulence over time and being a hypochondriac to one case (when flu still has *shocking* cases and deaths) means zero COVID will be the policy until the end of time.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Nah, you haven't proven that.
Proven what? Everything I said is given in numbers. Everything you said is an attempt to trick an uneducated person into thinking the official numbers are wrong.
All we've proven with the PISA back and forth is that aggregate measures (such as mean PISA scores) between comparable subgroup populations are largely similar.
No we've not proven anything because you don't know the meaning of proof. This is not a perfect experiment with lab rats; they are humans and with such, one who doesn't like the results can find an endless rabbithole of excuses for failure, as you are doing and as the study you've cited is doing. The fact is that China's 4 provinces averaged higher than America's highest state and China's Shandong kids haven't even come out to play. Give that test to Shandong kids and they'll ask why your pre-test multiple choice tutorial has 25 questions when most have 1 LOL America's A Squad loses handily to China's B Squad. The US doesn't even reach boss level when facing China.
Other evidence points against your hypothesis of younger cohorts being standard deviations above the rest
That was never my hypothesis. Don't use words you don't understand. All students in PISA were 15 years old.
- China has lower rates of bachelor degree attainment than the United States and similar levels of STEM degree attainment in youth cohorts.
When I make claims, I cite the sources. You don't because it is your imagination. Chinese STEM production far outstrips any other country, more than the US, Japan, and EU combined.
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I said you slap yourself and you say indeed, eh?
China has a much lower GDP per capita which itself lends it to faster catch-up growth. China has both grown substantially slower in the 2020-2022 period than the immediate preceeding period and slower to comparable Asian Tiger economies at similar levels of development.
Was the world under a pandemic when the tigers slowed down? Did the tigers ever lay a technological challenge to the US or even stand independently? No. They were small; they were submissive and they were given everything. China is everything that they can never be.
Meanwhile, the US has grown at similar rates in 2020-2022 and grown faster to comparable DMs/high-income economies.
There are no comparable economies to China or the US. The US grew at a third the pace of China suffering 2 recessions and a million deaths while China coasted through it putting the economy behind people's lives. That's the only thing that's truth instead of imagination.
To know how much fanatical zero COVID matters to harming economic growth - you would need to know how much GDP would be without zero COVID and how much it would be with zero COVID.
You'd have to know what the world would be like without COVID. You'd have to know how many people would died and what China's economy would be like if it just let the plague take over. We will never know but judging by every other economy, the harm done by Zero COVID is negative. China saves lives and preserves growth while others lose lives and go into recession.
IMF forecasts tend to be largely accurate with fairly consistent biases (overestimating US growth, underestimating China's growth); so when China's actual performance undershoots IMF performance, that's more than enough evidence of mass economic wreckage and lost growth that fanatical zero COVID has caused.
IMF's forecasts in 2019 has nothing to do with what happens after COVID shocks the world. You live in the world of imagination because the world of truth hurts you too much.
If zero-COVID is the goal; then the shock will be permanent.
Zero COVID is not the goal; it is the tool to prevent deaths and to keep the economy growing as much as possible given the former. It is what Westerners want China to abandon so they can see the carnage that took over their countries take over China. You will not have the chance; your invitation is rejected. As I said before, other miserable Western nations can be your company but not China.
Viruses do not automatically decrease in mortality and virulence over time and being a hypochondriac to one case (when flu still has *shocking* cases and deaths) means zero COVID will be the policy until the end of time.
Viruses do get milder just like every pandemic that has gone away by itself in history before even vaccines were invented. You are as ignorant on biology as you are on China.
 
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hans_r

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When I make claims, I cite the sources. You don't because it is your imagination. Chinese STEM production far outstrips any other country, more than the US, Japan, and EU combined.
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That infographic counts 2-yr and 4-yr degree issuance for China and only 4-yr degree issuance for the US. China's Ministry of Education highlights that there were ~1.7 million STEM 4-yr degrees issued in China which is around 7-9% of any Chinese birth cohort. ~430K 4-yr STEM degrees in the United States which are again, around 7-9% of any given US birth cohort. Lower 4-yr college degree attainment in China compared to the US can be done by comparing NBS 1% population surveys with the American Community Survey's Social and Economic Supplement
I said you slap yourself and you say indeed, eh?

Was the world under a pandemic when the tigers slowed down? Did the tigers ever lay a technological challenge to the US or even stand independently? No. They were small; they were submissive and they were given everything. China is everything that they can never be.
Yes, and? Technology improves economic growth. If China is the master of technology (it is not, just look at the lack of Chinese firms on any league table of high tech industries), then China's growth rates would be higher compared to the Tigers which have no technology. Yet, China's growth rates are lower. Underperforming the Tigers, whom you think themselves are unimpressive.
There are no comparable economies to China or the US. The US grew at a third the pace of China suffering 2 recessions and a million deaths while China coasted through it putting the economy behind people's lives. That's the only thing that's truth instead of imagination.
National size and GDP growth have no relation with each other.
You'd have to know what the world would be like without COVID. You'd have to know how many people would died and what China's economy would be like if it just let the plague take over. We will never know but judging by every other economy, the harm done by Zero COVID is negative. China saves lives and preserves growth while others lose lives and go into recession.
The harm is done by the reaction to COVID, not by COVID itself. you see this in subnational US data - the GDP of states that didn't lockdown are booming, the states that did are not booming
IMF's forecasts in 2019 has nothing to do with what happens after COVID shocks the world. You live in the world of imagination because the world of truth hurts you too much.
Indeed. 2019 IMF forecasts offer a rough-ish hypothetical of a world without COVID. The US economy is largely where it would be without COVID; China's economy is much smaller which shows indeed, the effect of fanatical zero COVID.
Viruses do get milder just like every pandemic that has gone away by itself in history before even vaccines were invented. You are as ignorant on biology as you are on China.
Smallpox went away, Hepatitis A went away, CMV went away...oh right
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
That infographic counts 2-yr and 4-yr degree issuance for China and only 4-yr degree issuance for the US.
Where did you get this from?
China's Ministry of Education highlights that there were ~1.7 million STEM 4-yr degrees issued in China which is around 7-9% of any Chinese birth cohort. ~430K 4-yr STEM degrees in the United States which are again, around 7-9% of any given US birth cohort. Lower 4-yr college degree attainment in China compared to the US can be done by comparing NBS 1% population surveys with the American Community Survey's Social and Economic Supplement
And the result is that China has much more than the US. Some more good stuff for you:
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Yes, and? Technology improves economic growth. If China is the master of technology (it is not, just look at the lack of Chinese firms on any league table of high tech industries), then China's growth rates would be higher compared to the Tigers which have no technology.
That's a retarded thing to say. What does it mean to have technology and not have technology? It's not a spectrum, not a binomial. There is no such thing as a master of technology.
Yet, China's growth rates are lower. Underperforming the Tigers, whom you think themselves are unimpressive.
Already wrote this. Tigers don't fight; they are given things for their submission. China fights to grow against the wishes and powers of the collective West. It's the difference before begging for food and hunting for food.
National size and GDP growth have no relation with each other.
Not true. Small countries just like small businesses can boom easily buoyed by much larger entities. Large businesses need much more to be lifted. If you own a small lemonade business, a contract with Costco could give you 1000% growth in a year. If you're Tropicana, Costco might lift you by 5% or so. But China is not that; China actually fights for growth wrestling it away from enemies rather than being buoyed by anyone.
The harm is done by the reaction to COVID, not by COVID itself. you see this in subnational US data - the GDP of states that didn't lockdown are booming, the states that did are not booming
As I see in what? You didn't cite shit. The only thing I see is that the US grew 7.5% in a time when China grew by ~21%. With the saved lives, that's good enough for me don't need more than that. China doesn't let people die for money and we still beat the US.
Indeed. 2019 IMF forecasts offer a rough-ish hypothetical of a world without COVID. The US economy is largely where it would be without COVID; China's economy is much smaller which shows indeed, the effect of fanatical zero COVID.
Once again, you live in an imaginary world; imaginary worlds don't matter. The real world is that China grew faster while still saving lives. That's good enough for us. Don't need 4.5 million deaths with 26% growth (even though in the real world, it would probably mean multiple recessions instead of higher growth); this is much better. No sale for you.
Smallpox went away, Hepatitis A went away, CMV went away...oh right
Oh right, you realized you're uneducated? Spanish Flu went away. Swine flu went away. Things don't have to be extinct to "go away." Avoid them when they can cause mass deaths, and when they can't anymore, live with them. At 2,600 deaths a week in a population a quarter the size of China's, we'll pass. Zero COVID + outgrowing the US for us. Thanks
 
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Abominable

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It looks like the Germans have finally said it out loud. The war in Ukraine and covid are contributing factors, but the main reason why the EU/west won't have economic growth any time soon is because Asia isn't. By Asia they actually mean China.

RT the only news publication to correctly interpret what Schulz said. It shows how dead journalism is now in the west.

Now, we will see pressure on China from the west to open up it's economy and reverse it's zero COVID policies.
 

ansy1968

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It looks like the Germans have finally said it out loud. The war in Ukraine and covid are contributing factors, but the main reason why the EU/west won't have economic growth any time soon is because Asia isn't. By Asia they actually mean China.

RT the only news publication to correctly interpret what Schulz said. It shows how dead journalism is now in the west.

Now, we will see pressure on China from the west to open up it's economy and reverse it's zero COVID policies.
Bro then China hold the cards, we may see further kowtowing as Xi ignore the EU bureaucrats and negotiate directly with individual EU state, the Chinese version of Salami slicing. ;)
 
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