China Flanker Thread III (land based, exclude J-15)

[Blitzo]

Do pardon me on my lack of knowledge, I just joined this forum last year.

That's fine, I was just wondering what your understanding was.

So to confirm -- yes, J-11Bs have been out of production for years. The only land based Flanker variant in active production in the last half decade or more, is the J-16.

WRT these two points - Around when in the future do you guys envision that the J-20Ss (i.e. dual-seat variant of the J-20) would kick the J-16 out of the production line, like how the J-20 has essentially kicked the J-11 out of production several years ago?

Since with a twin-seater design, the J-20S could also fullfill the same role as the J-16 is fullfilling now (and can be fullfilled with a larger body and more onboard power) when it comes to roles e.g. enhancing greater networking between squadrons and regions in a battlefield, C&C wingman UAVs and UCAVs, smaller but agile AWACS, and electronic warfare.

Plus with the upcoming J-35/J-31, which I do believe that a twin-seater variant would be available as well to replace the J-15S and J-15D.

The twin seat J-20AS will do a different role to the J-16, even though both are twin seaters. One is 5th gen and one is 4.5th gen.

Also keep in mind that production of all J-20 airframes will also have a limit to how many can be produced per year, and that will be divided between single seat and twin seat variants.


Or putting it another way, I do not expect there to be any sort of direct relationship between J-20AS production and J-16 production. It's not like increased production of one will lead to reduced production of the other.
When J-16 production begins to slow down and stop, it will be because the PLA as a whole will be putting the brakes procurement of 4.5th gen aircraft and transitioning to a more 5th gen aircraft procurement stage.



I also wouldn't say that J-20 directly kicked out J-11B production.
It's more that J-16 kicked out J-11B production.
J-20 created a whole new category for itself that nothing else (so far) could touch.

 

[by78]

More high-resolution close-up photos of J-16.

 

[by78]

 

[by78]

Two cool images of J-11B and BS.

 

[drunkmunky]

is the J16 really THAT much more technologically advanced though to bring the flanker chassis out of the 4th gen moniker? Is it THAT much of an evolution from the J11BS that it can be called 4.5?

 

[Blitzo]

is the J16 really THAT much more technologically advanced though to bring the flanker chassis out of the 4th gen moniker? Is it THAT much of an evolution from the J11BS that it can be called 4.5?

Yes, that has been the consensus for going on nearly a decade now.

And based on what we know and can surmise from J-16, it seems reasonable.

 

[HeroOftheFerelden]

Three more J-16 serial numbers

J-16 No. 56 (the tail number should be 70596),
the young pilot may come from the 99th Brigade(trained by the pilot from the 98th), but the J-16 behind was from the 98th Brigade


J-16 No. 87 (the tail number should be 70897)


The footage above and a few other presentations were shot in front of the maintenance hangar at Baishiyi AB of the 98th Brigade


Back to the large hargar at Hotan AB, J-16 No. 45, safe to say it's from the 99th Brigade, so the tail number should be 71405


What the 99th Brigade(formerly the 99th Regiment of the 33th Division) used to fly

 

[gelgoog]

This is a quantum leap forward from J-7 to J-16.

 

[HeroOftheFerelden]

J-16 with tail number 71303 from the 99th Brigade at Hotan AB

 

[Deino]

J-16 with tail number 71303 from the 99th Brigade at Hotan AB
View attachment 98647

Thanks a lot mate, now all I need is a clear image of the J-15B