H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)

[Deino]

…. But I think any expectation earlier than late 2027 is too optimistic.

Really, only that late ???

 

[Kalec]

The bid commissioned tests of cockpit and the wing. So there could have been a full size model with cockpit on the ground somewhere in the hangar.

I mean it is obviously related to H-20, a hatch door design for a bomber or transporter.

 

[Deino]

The bid commissioned tests of cockpit and the wing. So there could have been a full size model with cockpit on the ground somewhere in the hangar.

I mean it is obviously related to H-20, a hatch door design for a bomber or transporter.

Am I missing an image?

 

[sunnymaxi]

We learned that the project 718 was endorsed in 2010. The endorsement had happened in 2008. The pre-endorsement stage had started in 2007. The maiden flight happened in early 2011 and the introduction happened in early 2017. We haven't got any official news about the H-20 yet. We had teasers (which means the PLAAF may have endorsed a project to become the H-20). I guess the H-20 is where the J-20 was during late 2009 and early 2010. Of course, if there is extra secrecy (highly likely) and extra digitalization of testing and design (almost certain) it may be at a further stage. But I think any expectation earlier than late 2027 is too optimistic.

don't you think, as compare to 2010's and 2022 AVIC changed a lot. in terms of capabilities and aviation infrastructure. this time project won't take much time like J-20.

 

[taxiya]

We learned that the project 718 was endorsed in 2010. The endorsement had happened in 2008. The pre-endorsement stage had started in 2007. The maiden flight happened in early 2011 and the introduction happened in early 2017. We haven't got any official news about the H-20 yet. We had teasers (which means the PLAAF may have endorsed a project to become the H-20). I guess the H-20 is where the J-20 was during late 2009 and early 2010. Of course, if there is extra secrecy (highly likely) and extra digitalization of testing and design (almost certain) it may be at a further stage. But I think any expectation earlier than late 2027 is too optimistic.

I understand that your estimation is based on the example from J-20's endorsement date to date of maiden flight and introduction. 2008, 2011, 2017.

However, "The Next" teaser in 2018 is unique to H-20, so I highly doubt that you can map that teaser in the time line. Remember the airforce chief 马晓天 revealed in 2016 that H-20 was under development. We may not know what R&D stage he meant, but it means that the teaser isn't any special in telling where H-20 is in the time line.

Even if we take the teaser as PLAAF endorsement, it was 2018, using J-20 as a reference (maiden flight 3 years after endorsement), H-20's maiden flight can be any time after 2021.

 

[Blitzo]

I guess the H-20 is where the J-20 was during late 2009 and early 2010. Of course, if there is extra secrecy (highly likely) and extra digitalization of testing and design (almost certain) it may be at a further stage. But I think any expectation earlier than late 2027 is too optimistic.

When you say "any expectation earlier than late 2027 is too optimistic" are you referring to maiden flight or initial entry into service?

Because I don't see how you can say "H-20 is where the J-20 was during late 2009 and early 2010" and not expect it to make its maiden flight within a year.

 

[latenlazy]

Why do people think adding the folding vertical stabilisers are about combat manoeuvring? The thing is a bomber, if it needs to dogfight it’s dead already.

If folding vertical stabilisers are indeed a feature, they would have been added for take-off and landings.

The B49 first (US) flying wing bomber design had a lot of flight control issues due to the inherent flight characteristics of the design, much of that was ‘solved’ by FBW control systems, but I would not be surprised if the B2 had significant limitations and restrictions in terms of things like weather conditions and runway length it could safely operate from.

China has always been very obsessive about all its weapons systems being able to operate at the high altitudes of Tibet.

I would not be surprised if the folding tails were needed to meet that operational requirement. It would also have a lot of other benefits like allowing the H20 to take off and land at many more airports and under much more adverse weather conditions.

Given the precision manufacturing capabilities already demonstrated by China, I think it’s not unreasonable to think they can design the folding mechanism to give minimal to no adverse RCS impact compared to a traditional design, at least from radars looking skywards at it. That would mean the only real cost beyond money to such a design would be weight, and not a lot of it. Seems like a good trade-off to me.

Not combat maneuvering. Evasive maneuvering. Anyways I don’t think any of us know for sure what the point of the folding tails are.

 

[latenlazy]

We learned that the project 718 was endorsed in 2010. The endorsement had happened in 2008. The pre-endorsement stage had started in 2007. The maiden flight happened in early 2011 and the introduction happened in early 2017. We haven't got any official news about the H-20 yet. We had teasers (which means the PLAAF may have endorsed a project to become the H-20). I guess the H-20 is where the J-20 was during late 2009 and early 2010. Of course, if there is extra secrecy (highly likely) and extra digitalization of testing and design (almost certain) it may be at a further stage. But I think any expectation earlier than late 2027 is too optimistic.

Eh. China’s development process or technological base today isn’t the same as it was in 2008. And at the very least a lot of the aerodynamics related developments for bombers are not nearly as challenging or extensive as for fighters.

 

[drowingfish]

The official name of J-20 was Project 718 demonstrator at that time, when the prototype NO. 2001 made it maiden flight on Jan.11, 2011.

I think he is implying H-20 is about to take its maiden flight but still long way to go to enter IOC phase.View attachment 96006

it might not be a good comparison, it took Y-20 3 years from first flight to IOC, taking C919 about 5. I think H-20, assuming it is quite complex, is likely closer to C919. so if it flies this year, IOC in 2026-2027. if this is a critical piece for Taiwan then no attempt on Taiwan before 2029.

 

[latenlazy]

it might not be a good comparison, it took Y-20 3 years from first flight to IOC, taking C919 about 5. I think H-20, assuming it is quite complex, is likely closer to C919. so if it flies this year, IOC in 2026-2027. if this is a critical piece for Taiwan then no attempt on Taiwan before 2029.

H-20 isn’t necessary for Taiwan. It can be a difference maker against the US if the US intervenes.