PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

[tphuang]

Hold on... let me get this straight...

Are you saying you want an exact ORBAT and strike capacity for an enemy's 1st strike capability?

Well... I don't what to tell you man.

Don't need to be that specific. There is a basic question when we talk about mass drones strike of range, launch platforms and such. Just saying you are using massive drone strike doesn't work if it costs too much money, if they can't fly 1500 km or are easy to pick up and intercept.

How many F-117s did you see on the books before 1991?

And that was nothing compared to the priority of a 1st strike on China scenario.

This strike would be a matter of existential importance for Pax Americana.

They're not gonna show you their cards.

Yet we know about hypersonic program and b21.

The MGM-140 ATACMS which Taiwan has. It's in-range and in-scope.

In this scenario, Taiwan would not be against mainland since it's between us and china. Taiwan's choice would be to get itself flattened or stay neutral or ally up with mainland.

I've already mentioned how this might work at least twice on this thread. I'm not gonna keep repeating myself, nor am I gonna deal with points already dealt with.

Except it does not work.

If that's your conclusion, you're welcome to it.

I hope the Chinese military comes to a very different conclusion and makes sure to strike first.

Do not assume that you'll be able to absorb the 1st strike and still win.

Even an amateur on the street can knock out a professional fighter if he lands the first shot.

And the US is not an amateur.

You think Taiwan can knock out china with the first shot? If not, then obviously you need certain level of force to talk out china.

Us can do major damage against china with a first shot, but not with missiles. It would be with nuclear sub fleet.

Since china would be able to retaliate at the same time, it would not even be just a one punch scenario.

 

[Mohsin77]

Just saying you are using massive drone strike doesn't work if it costs too much money, if they can't fly 1500 km or are easy to pick up and intercept.

Again, I already dealt with this multiple times. It doesn't need to be 1500km, there are unconventional vectors available. I don't know if you missed what I said, or you misunderstood it. But I'm not gonna repeat it. I just don't have the time man. This is already too much time I've spent on this already.

Yet we know about hypersonic program and b21.

Horrible argument. This is just a basic fallacy. Just because you know X, you can't assume you know Y. Especially when I already gave you the (very relevant) example of the F-117's unveiling during the 1991 War. And yet, you're stubbornly and dogmatically refusing to accept that you're not omnipotent. No one has perfect intel on the enemy, especially if that enemy is counting on a 1st strike pre-emptive solution. You're literally asking the other guy to show you his cards so you can plan your move. And you're assuming what he shows you is what he's actually holding, and then basing your entire strategy on that. Good luck with that.

In this scenario, Taiwan would not be against mainland since it's between us and china.

..... ?!

The scenario is the US pre-empting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with a 1st strike. How are you assuming Taiwan will stay neutral in this?!

 

[Blitzo]

Do not assume that you'll be able to absorb the 1st strike without critical damage. Even an amateur on the street can knock out a professional fighter if he lands the first shot. And the US is not an amateur.

This bolded part I think is the most important take away from the post, and one which I really don't see why people are trying so as to argue against.

Even leaving aside the military capabilities each side can bring to bear, the sheer geography of where the first stage of conflict would occur -- being in China's backyard, where the US has the capability to hit targets on Chinese home soil while the PLA only has the capability to hit US forward deployment areas and bases -- that if the US is the first one to fire a shot, then the PLA is already at a disadvantage.

Mitigating that disadvantage and considering the capabilities the PLA would need to do so, are all very valid questions.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

I don't think there will be surprise at all . The China seaboard is heavily defended with HQ 9A&B, S300, S400 Sam and long range radar manned 24X7 and the coverage is complete. Before it went dark Sean O'Connor has article on the SAM coverage of eastern seaboard. Most strategic airfield, factory, dam, railway hub, communication hub, military headquarter, port etc will be heavily defended with SAM. There are is just too much target. Most of US missile are subsonic and detecting it should be no problem. People here is just day dreaming as is attacking China is a cake walk.

Any attack on China mainland will invite massive retaliatory attack on US bases all over Asia and they are all vulnerable and there are not many of them. Sure they can disperse it but without weapon storage and maintenance facility they cannot sustain high tempo of bombing. The geography actually favor China Since Chinese bases are numerous number in hundred and they spread out over the huge landmass with support just nearby!

 

[tphuang]

Again, I already dealt with this multiple times. It doesn't need to be 1500km, there are unconventional vectors available. I don't know if you missed what I said, or you misunderstood it. But I'm not gonna repeat it. I just don't have the time man. This is already too much time I've spent on this already.

I just disagree with your scenarios. Doing drone swarms isn't as simple as people make it out to be.

Horrible argument. This is just a basic fallacy. Just because you know X, you can't assume you know Y. Especially when I already gave you the (very relevant) example of the F-117's unveiling during the 1991 War. And yet, you're stubbornly and dogmatically refusing to accept that you're not omnipotent. No one has perfect intel on the enemy, especially if that enemy is counting on a 1st strike pre-emptive solution. You're literally asking the other guy to show you his cards so you can plan your move. And you're assuming what he shows you is what he's actually holding, and then basing your entire strategy on that. Good luck with that.

I also can't base my personal analysis on just assuming either side has miracle weapons that have never been unveiled.

..... ?!

The scenario is the US pre-empting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with a 1st strike. How are you assuming Taiwan will stay neutral in this?!

So, I think in a Taiwan scenario. The best case scenario is Taiwan/China coming together on an alliance without a war.

Politically, the next best scenario is if in the middle of intense negotiation between Taiwan & China, US pre-empting an attack on China. That would not be a popular thing to do domestically in America. There will be a lot of pressure from US public to pull out if it does not go well initially. You are much less likely to see a determined America fighting till the end if they initiated the attack. Just politically world wide, China can portray itself as victim here.

As for Taiwan, it would be absolutely natural in this case for Taiwanese to assess their options based on the initial happening. Keep in mind that the Taiwanese public really doesn't want a war and most of them are only willing to pick up the arms if China invaded them unfairly. Let's say in the initial exchange, China suffers some losses, but destroys all the US military bases along first chain of island (possibly sinks a carrier). What is Taiwan's move in this scenario? I think facing total destruction is probably the last thing they want here. Taiwanese people see themselves as a pawn in a much bigger conflict between US and China. They are going to pick the best path for themselves, not America.

 

[Mohsin77]

I just disagree with your scenarios.

Fair enough. We can end it here without an agreement.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Let me be clear here. I think us military is doing a good job coming up with solutions for a hard to solve problem they face. Using cheaper, attritable drones to complement manned aircraft is where aerial warfare is going. But you have to find a balance of cost vs capabilities. The capabilities that this simulation require is very high. You can get long endurance ucav like predator drones that can fly for a long time, but they are not stealthy and can't fly fast enough to catch up with your fighter jet and they don't carry enough ammunition to threaten advanced surface to air missiles. They can also be struck down by anti drone systems pretty easily.

Underestimating cost of capable ucavs seem like a mistake these war scenarios constantly make. The other question is where are these ucavs taking off from? Carriers can only carry so many. The air fields are far away.

On the flip side, we do know that Chinese drones are a lot cheaper. A lot of them can be used in similar attacks against us bases or even us carriers if they get too close. There are a whole lot of j6 and j7 that can be converted into suicide drones. Depending on how much they want to spend on modifications, they can really make such suicidal drones hard to deal with. They are very cheap, effective and attritable. I don't see how even a surprise attack from us military could take out most of such drones. Also, they can utilize much smaller suicide drones for just Taiwan itself. Of course, Taiwan would probably do the same to landing soldiers. So I think pla is just as capable as launching mass drones attack as us military, possibly even more so. Operating close to its own borders offer many advantages. There are too many possible targets for us military to go after for them to significantly degrade China's ability to strike back and destroy ships and bases within first chain imo. I haven't even brought up the more expensive option of china building its own fleet of more capable and stealthy attack drones.

a J-7 drone with even primitive LOS navigation to an AWAC controller, 2x IR missiles and a few 250 kg bombs would still be a higher performance drone than any currently deployed UCAV. it is also a sufficient threat that they'll need to actually shoot it down. Not an expert but maybe it can even be equipped with a special Luneberg lens to mimic a J-10 or J-16 radar return. That means that enemy forces will need to get a visual lock on them, as wasting BVR radar guided missiles on these types of drones isn't worth it, forcing them to expose themselves. It's unlikely for an enemy to be able to beat China in drone swarms.

 

[vincent]

Politically, the next best scenario is if in the middle of intense negotiation between Taiwan & China, US pre-empting an attack on China. That would not be a popular thing to do domestically in America. There will be a lot of pressure from US public to pull out if it does not go well initially. You are much less likely to see a determined America fighting till the end if they initiated the attack. Just politically world wide, China can portray itself as victim here.

As for Taiwan, it would be absolutely natural in this case for Taiwanese to assess their options based on the initial happening. Keep in mind that the Taiwanese public really doesn't want a war and most of them are only willing to pick up the arms if China invaded them unfairly. Let's say in the initial exchange, China suffers some losses, but destroys all the US military bases along first chain of island (possibly sinks a carrier). What is Taiwan's move in this scenario? I think facing total destruction is probably the last thing they want here. Taiwanese people see themselves as a pawn in a much bigger conflict between US and China. They are going to pick the best path for themselves, not America.

The moment China and US go at each other, I expect PLA to knock out all air defence systems, all air fields, all fuel depots, and all power generations on the island because PLA can never be sure if the Taiwanese will not provide aerial info around the island to the Americans

 

[tphuang]

The moment China and US go at each other, I expect PLA to knock out all air defence systems, all air fields, all fuel depots, and all power generations on the island because PLA can never be sure if the Taiwanese will not provide aerial info around the island to the Americans

The moment US launches missiles at China, China will be have to first deal with the immediate threat of US military. Where it goes from there depends on how successful their initial responses are.

 

[gelgoog]

Does China have any system equivalent to S-500 which can do theater level defense?
That would be important to blunt any attack with US hypersonic weapons like Dark Eagle once it becomes available.