Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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B.I.B.

Captain
Well, to be fair the 5-axis multi-prong lightning attack would have succeeded if the troops, logistics were sustained matching the initial strategic surprise it achieved for a very brief period of time (48hrs) but due to reasons you have articulated in your prior posts regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Putin went in with too few troops to accomplish his goals.
Plus he didn't go in hard. A U.S. operation would most likely have seen weeks of bombardment with nothing spared.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Plus he didn't go in hard. A U.S. operation would most likely have seen weeks of bombardment with nothing spared.
Agreed because at the end of the day the destruction and mayhem being done in Ukraine is pretty much the same in the eyes to all the Ukrainian victims. And the same amount of financial destruction was going to be exacted by the west would be of similar nature as well. Only Putin knows and his inner circle as to why they went in the way they did.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Agreed because at the end of the day the destruction and mayhem being done in Ukraine is pretty much the same in the eyes to all the Ukrainian victims. And the same amount of financial destruction was going to be exacted by the west would be of similar nature as well. Only Putin knows and his inner circle as to why they went in the way they did.
One guess is that Russia isn't going into Ukraine purely for reasons of national security but because it actually is conquering for the old school reason of conquest: to gain national wealth and weakening the enemy.

Taking 1/5 of Ukrainian population and land is devastating for Ukraine to be sure but it is also a huge gain for Russia if the conquered regions don't rebel, and from what it looks like, they aren't rebelling. Ukraine by itself is 1/4 Russian population, 1/8 Russian GDP. Gaining 1/5 of that would mean Russia increasing 5% in population, 2% in base GDP, while weakening Ukraine by 20% in population and GDP.

Viewed in this context, going lighter near the frontier and heavy in the rear is expected: Russia wants the Donbass, Kherson, Kharkiv if possible, etc. as productive regions of Russia. They don't want a bombed out wasteland near them that they'd have to pay to rebuild and where the population has fled or is rebelling.

This is yet another way that Russia and China differ. China is already so productive within it's own borders that it doesn't need to conquer or loot. China already won its wars of conquest long ago against Xiongnu, Xianbei, Mongols, etc. This means that China doesn't need to care too much about enemy infrastructure or rebellions.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Agreed because at the end of the day the destruction and mayhem being done in Ukraine is pretty much the same in the eyes to all the Ukrainian victims. And the same amount of financial destruction was going to be exacted by the west would be of similar nature as well. Only Putin knows and his inner circle as to why they went in the way they did.

Well we have to keep in mind that Russia is effectively "liberating" Ukrainian-held territories for the DPR and LPR. These are people who probably have friends and family in the war-affected areas (yes, even Kiev, maybe especially Kiev). So if Russia started to do NATO-style bombing, it would be ruining relations with DPR and LPR. Right now, these two republics are supplying critical manpower to hold on to the territories the Russian military is taking.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well we have to keep in mind that Russia is effectively "liberating" Ukrainian-held territories for the DPR and LPR. These are people who probably have friends and family in the war-affected areas (yes, even Kiev, maybe especially Kiev). So if Russia started to do NATO-style bombing, it would be ruining relations with DPR and LPR. Right now, these two republics are supplying critical manpower to hold on to the territories the Russian military is taking.
I understand your logic but what I am failing to understand from Putin’s strategic perspective is why didn't he or couldn't he made the commitment that "if you're going to take Vienna, take f..ng Vienna" in this case decapitate the heads of snake in Kyiv that controls the political and military organ while simultaneously destroying or conducting denazification campaign as the Russians call it rather than what it appears as piece meal operation or in the eyes of American Vietnam veterans "A Rolling Thunder Operation" which obviously didn't turn out well for the U.S.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Ukrainian af is still effective even today so no more words.
where it is effective?
Ukrainian af is still effective even today so no more words.

VDV soldiers in Kyiv airport were facing heavy air attack but Russian af seems had never existed in the world for them.
there is no evidence of Ukraine airforce use near Kyiv.. They cannot even shoot a IL-76. there is no cockpit videos for air to air missions.
Ukraine airforce is for flag waving or one way sucide missions. if Ruaf does not have complete air dominance they will not use External fuel tanks on Choppers. Only Russia use 3000L fuel tanks in attack aircraft. you only use big fuel tanks when you have confidence for loitering in the area and not bothered by decrease performance.
This is the most effective military campaign in modern times when you look at its objective. Taking farmland for organic production. Minimum manpower has occupied hydro electric dam, the biggest nuclear power, complete sea blockade. The only reason they took tough action on Mariupol is to protect the Crimean bridge. The rest they will take time. by enhancing the roles of Ukranian farmers and unleash them on liberals in cities. This strong military performance force EU to accept Rubles as payment and give much enhance leadership role in global south.
 

SEAD

Junior Member
Registered Member
there is no evidence of Ukraine airforce use near Kyiv..
Both VDV and Ukraine soldiers described courses of battle in very detail, while their descriptions perfectly matched early videos. could you stop your comment until doing a survey?
 
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Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
This is yet another way that Russia and China differ. China is already so productive within it's own borders that it doesn't need to conquer or loot. China already won its wars of conquest long ago against Xiongnu, Xianbei, Mongols, etc.
Aside from the Kanto plains, Han river valley, and Red river delta, China has expanded the Empire to the extreme outer limits of natural defensive boundaries in East Asia (Himalayans in Southwest, Jungles in South, Deserts in Northwest, Frozen Tundra in North, and Ocean in East). Those remaining regions China made tributary instead. China is probably the most successful land empire in human history given the breath, depths, latitude and quality of fertile land it contains. US is a contender, but they bulldozed primitive savages, whereas China had to contend with the most powerful land empires in history (e.g. Mongols, Xiongnu, Muslims) etc...Russia also bulldozed savages in land that even Mongols/Chinese did not want.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Both VDV and Ukraine soldiers described courses of battle in very detail, while their descriptions perfectly matched early videos. could you stop your comment until doing a survey?
there will be alot of video evidence if Ukraine airforce was remotely effective. that poor performance led to drop the idea of MIG-29 and no further training regarding airpower.
VDV wont comment unless MOD clear them. you basically relying on unsubstantiated hearsey. i doubt Ukraine airforce has training of tacking individuals from air. they are basic air defense force.
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Franklin

Captain
Could you at least provide what are the similarities that China shares with Russia militarily aside from the most obvious examples like military hardwares and what not. Are you proposing that both share the same military doctrine from strategy to tactics? Does the PLA have the same strategic constraints with respect to fully utilizing it's forces piecemeal similar to what the Russians did calling their military campaign "special operations" for strategic considerations and also logistical reasons.

You have to at least provide key specific areas of similarities because what you have written is nothing but vague generalities which is only true superficially which can lead others into wrong assumptions.

Anyway, I am very much interested into what they are and looking forward to your response.
The Chinese military has been heavily influenced by the Russian military atleast since 1949. The reforms that the PLA announced in 2015 are in large part influenced by the Russian "New Look" reforms started in 2008. The new five theatre commands of the PLA today have more in common with the four Russian theatre commands than the 11 US global combatant command structure.

China today may have better weapons and more training than the Russian military because of a larger high tech industrial base and more financial resources. There is today also a lot more American influence in the Chinese military. But Russian influence is still very much there.

Just to name a few.

*The PLA air born troops are a weaker version of the VDV because China doesn't have the heavy airlift capabilities of the Russians yet.

*The Chinese tanks still uses autoloaders where the munition is stored in a carousel under the floor of the turret. Which is a known weakeness of Russian tank design. If a shell or rocket penetrates the armour then the whole storage may blow. That make the Type 96 no more survivable than the T-72.

*A rigid command structure that doesn't allow initiative from below. This maybe the biggest problem of the PLA today!

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