The harshest sanctions imposed on Russia are the theft of its foreign currency reserves. Ten years ago the SWIFT sanctions would cause panic, not anymore. All the other sanctions are punctual and really do not cause THAT much harm to Russia's economy.
The companies which are fleeing Russia are leaving valuable assets behind which the Russia government will soon make it keep running under new ownership. Unless I am mistaken, it seems to me that all branches of McDonald's, Burger King, Starbucks, etc... etc... are functioning full steam with the benefit of not having to pay for royalties to the franchiser.
In the first few days, there was panic with people queing around the block to draw against their bank accounts.
But let's analyze a little bit about the harshest of those sanctions, the theft of the FX reserves. How do they affect the Russian economy.
Those reserves are, for all practical purposes, the equivalent of an individual's savings account. He has accumulated those savings throughout a given period in order to maybe use them in a rainy day. But mind you, those are SAVINGS!!! They are not to be used on a daily basis. On a daily basis you use your regular paycheck. You use whatever you earn on a weekly, quarterly, or monthly basis. You actually don't NEED your savings. They were just quietly sitting there at the bank. You don't die if you lose your savings.
If you have accumulated savings (or reserves in the case of countries) , it means that you earn MORE THAN YOU SPEND.
So, again, if a country accumulates reserves it means that it is exporting more than it is importing. It means your "salary" covers all you monthly expenses and there is a little to be kept aside at the end of the month.
Well, Russia was acccumulating reserves with gas prices much much lower than today's prices. It was accumulating reserves with oil prices much, much lower than today's prices.
What conclusion can one arrive at?
Well, if Russia exported considerably more than it imported when it was selling gas and oil and wheat and minerals at much, much lower prices one can confidently say it is in a better situation today than it was before its reserves were stolen, i.e., its saving capacity today is much higher than it was before the war, befores being stolen and before commodities prices shoot sky high.
In fact, with the incredibly high prices Russia's commdities are being sold, it should not have any difficulties weathering the rough time it will face in the coming months.
It is certainly hard to face hardship such as a divorce, a car accident or fire in your home when you have no money in your pocket. But if you are granted a huuuugggeee salary increase, your life can quite quickly be rearranged.
It will have supply chain problems in those items that were imported. Russians will have a hard time buying Gucci and Dior bags or garments They may not be able to buy shortly any Louboutin shoes. They will also have difficulty buying German, French or Italian cars. They may not be able to open bottles of champagne in their restaurants or drink French, Italian or German wines. But... come on! They can live withou that without needing to starve or go naked.
More importantly, if you have a steady increased income, as a country, you will very shortly develop a very, very, very solid industrial park in order to substitute imports.
One of the ways countries can develop their industrial base is to replace imports.
If you are cash rich, this will not be a problem.
Mind you, Russia is self sufficient in energy, in food and has a highly educated population.
They will substitute imports very, very quickly and this will absorb a hell of a lot of people.
I can bet that in just a few months its economy will hire any and all people who may be un-employed because of the shock and aw of the sanctions and in a few months it will be running at full employment.
IF YOU HAVE A VERY HIGH INCOME FROM IMPORTS, you can develop very rapidly your country and absorb all people at working age by means of replacing imports.
Being self sufficient in energy and food. Exporting your products at a much, much higher price ... and being forced to replace imports. You have a recipe for exceptionally high GDP growth.
Meanwhile, Europe.... need I say anything?
