Ukrainian War Developments

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foxmulder

Junior Member
I think west went so overboard with Russian sanctions that they missed the mark and Russian people are starting to unite. Sanction level is extraordinary. It is actually war at this point :) Banning Russians from sports, and confiscate assets of almost every Russian outside Russia... This is ww2 level. Amazing to watch though. Cancel culture at country level. Wonder the mid term effects of these. USA inflation might push double digits very soon.
 
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MortyandRick

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Registered Member
foxmulder said:
I think west went so overboard with Russian sanctions that they missed the mark and Russian people are starting to unite. Sanction level is extraordinary. It is actually war at this point :) Banning Russians from sports, and confiscate assets of almost every Russian outside Russia... This is ww2 level. Amazing to watch though. Cancel culture at country level. Wonder the mid term effects of these. USA inflation might push double digits very soon.
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Do you feel the Russians are uniting behind the current government or are these sanctions causing more resentment against Putin?
 
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ArmchairAnalyst

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Daring new ISW assessment:

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Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko

In more detail:
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March 10, 4:00 pm EST

The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date. There are as yet no indications that the Russian military is reorganizing, reforming, learning lessons, or taking other measures that would lead to a sudden change in the pace or success of its operations, although the numerical disparities between Russia and Ukraine leave open the possibility that Moscow will be able to restore rapid mobility or effective urban warfare to the battlefield.

Russian forces around Kyiv did not attempt to renew offensive operations on a multi-battalion scale on March 10 following the failure of limited efforts on March 8-9. Ukrainian forces badly damaged a Russian armored column in the Brovary area east of Kyiv, likely further disrupting Russian efforts to set conditions for offensive operations on the east bank of the Dnipro. Ukrainian resistance all along the Russian lines of communication from eastern Kyiv to the Russian border near Sumy continues to disrupt Russian efforts to bring more combat power to bear near the capital. The episodic, limited, and largely unsuccessful Russian offensive operations around Kyiv increasingly support the Ukrainian General Staff’s repeated assessments that Russia lacks the combat power near the capital to launch successful offensive operations on a large scale.

Key Takeaways
  • Russian operations around Kyiv remained largely stalled over the past 24 hours.
  • Ukrainian forces badly damaged a Russian armored unit east of the capital, likely disrupting Russian efforts to encircle or assault the city from the east.
  • Russian forces continue to struggle in efforts to seize Chernihiv city and to secure the long ground lines of communication from Sumy, which the Ukrainians still hold, to eastern Kyiv.
  • A new Russian invasion from western Belarus, with or without Belarusian ground forces’ support, appears increasingly unlikely.
  • Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and bombardment.
  • Russian efforts to bypass Mykolayiv and establish a reliable ground line of communication across the Southern Bug River to the north of Mykolayiv remain stalled.
  • Ukrainian air force and air defense operations continue to hinder Russian ground forces maneuver by likely limiting Russian close air support and exposing Russian mechanized forces to Ukrainian air and artillery attacks.
1646954364434.png

Immediate items to watch
  • Russian forces around Kyiv may undertake another operational pause to prepare for renewed efforts to encircle Kyiv from east and west and/or to seize the city center itself following their failures of the previous 48 hours;
  • Russian troops may drive on Zaporizhya city itself within the next 48-72 hours, likely attempting to block it from the east and set conditions for subsequent operations after Russian forces besieging Mariupol take that city;
  • Russian forces may attempt amphibious landings anywhere along the Black Sea Coast from Odesa to the mouth of the Southern Bug River in the next 24-48 hours.
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Note:
(from the detailed report):

Subordinate main effort along the west bank of the Dnipro.
(Russian that is)
 
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Phead128

Phead128

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Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
LawLeadsToPeace said:
Considering the fact that there are members here and many analysts claiming that China will get its a** kicked by the US due to the US’s combat experience in the Middle East, I don’t think it is common sense.
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Droning primitive savages or innocent civilians who can't fight back doesn't count as relevant combat experience against a near-peer competitor. If anything, an excessive focus on urban combat and asymmetric warfare will distract fighting a near-peer competitor in a conventional battlefield.
 
LawLeadsToPeace

LawLeadsToPeace

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Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
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Temstar said:
https://imgur.com/AgJQB5L
Журналист Владимир Бойко сообщает, что бойцы полка полиции «Миротворец» расстреляли автомобиль «Тойота», который не остановился на блокпосту.
За рулем был, по информации Бойко, Дмитрий Демьяненко, экс-заместитель начальника Главного управления СБУ в Киеве и Киевской области.
Это произошло сегодня около 18:00 в Дарницком районе Киева

Journalist Vladimir Boyko reports that fighters of the Mirotvorets police regiment shot a Toyota car that did not stop at the checkpoint. According to Boyko, Dmitry Demyanenko, a former deputy head of the SBU's Main Directorate in Kyiv and the Kyiv region, was behind the wheel. It happened today around 18:00 in the Darnytskyi district of Kyiv

Here is the car afterwards
https://imgur.com/ra7LcVR

Looks like all is not well inside Kiev.
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Looks like the cops got opened fire upon by the person in the car when they tried to open the Toyota's door. Regardless, I concur. Kyiv's leadership seems to be increasingly unstable.
Phead128 said:
Droning primitive savages or innocent civilians who can't fight back doesn't count as relevant combat experience against a near-peer competitor. If anything, an excessive focus on urban combat and asymmetric warfare will distract fighting a near-peer competitor in a conventional battlefield.
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I would say it is more of the asymmetric aspect and the lack of focus on scenarios in which there is a lack of supporting air cover and artillery. Urban combat overlaps both conventional and unconventional warfare.
 
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Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
I agree 100% on all your points. So for your last point on subregions are you referring to a "People's Republic of Eastern Ukraine" (East of Dnieper river) that is defacto independent puppet that invites Russian troops as "peacekeepers"? Or are you only referring to the small areas of DNR/LNR? I think only DNR/LNR is really not worth all this sanctions, but partitioning Ukraine into West Ukraine vs East Ukraine (independent puppet regime) along Dneiper river is a great prize and worthy of all the sanctions. West Ukraine is rendered a failed state without access to Black Sea coast, while Eastern Ukraine can be defacto Russian ally.
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First of all, you may call DNR/LNR as "puppet states" of Russia, but they have been fighting (with the help of Russia, I admit) for 8 years right now. The level of organization, command structure, local population support, local governance, mobilization of fighting-age people from the local population in a procedural manner, etc. all of these are already in place and successfully forged over the last 8 years.

Now if you think Russia can just take the whole "Eastern Ukraine" and somehow make it into a obedient and working puppet state that is all of a sudden loyal/friendly to Russia, just as an immediate aftermath of a supposed successful "Blitzkrieg" (as termed by you) by Russia on Ukraine, is beyond absurd. It's easy to destroy a structure, but it takes time, resources and effort to build one up.

Remember, neo-nazism are not a objective material finite thing. It's an ideology, it's a set of beliefs. No war Putin can throw at Ukraine with the limited resources he has can really eradicate an ideology. Even if Putin annihilate all the ultra-nationalist forces in Ukraine right now like the Aidar or Azov, it STILL does NOT mean that such ideology can be eradicated. However, Putin's hammering on these groups/military-forces can still work very effective in a much larger and ongoing effort of "denazification" of Ukraine.

Putin's punishing blows on these neo-nazi forces can greatly reduced their confidence, and drag them from under the radar of the media focus of the world community. You already see Indians, Chinese, Pakistanis and people from many Muslim countries becoming sharply aware of their resentment for colored people. Given that the US and the West has already been somewhat embarrassed about the like of Aidar and Azov in their own home media in the West, so much so as resulting in a 2018 us congress bill to forbid direct US military aid towards these groups. Now that Putin is focusing on them, it's already a media victory for Putin, in my opinion.
 
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