Ukrainian War Developments

[taxiya]

Because approx. 81,5% of the world isn't Chinese meaning China can't achieve its current geopolitical goals by itself without others. And because its main adversary the US is that much more adapt on the world stage with a very firm grip indeed.
You can't play the game of global domination by being inward-looking.

The United States was very inward-looking, lack of world influence and short of numbers in arms before joining WWII even though its GDP had a big margin over all other industrial nations. Yet it played the game well after it stepped in. With the material ground work there, one can play well any time when one hop in the game. It is just matter of opportunity, for the US WWII is that opportunity, for China it has not come yet, Ukraine crisis isn't it, it is just one of the many preludes.

 

[taxiya]

Is that for a ceasefire or for complete peace?
If its the second, then this is a big defeat for Russia

The post says
IF THESE CONDITIONS ARE MET, THEN RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTION WILL ‘STOP IN A MOMENT’ - SPOKESMAN

Looks like a ceasefire. But I don't see much difference between ceasefire and complete peace (a treaty like settlement). Any extra items in a possible peace treaty can not be harsher than already presented.

 

[FriedButter]

idk if it’s been mentioned yet but LPR and DPR is actually a lot bigger. They only controlled like 50% of their claimed land. So the terms to recognize them will also mean they will double their controlled land and Ukraine will lose quite a sizeable chuck (seems like 5%) off the Eastern side.

 

[Atomicfrog]

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They can give the south bit west of Odessa to the Republic of Moldavia. Access to maritime transport would be a great gift for a new Neighbors to keep him friendly.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Russia is already stepping back on their demands. Russia is in desperate need of an exit strategy which also saves Putin’s face. But that’s not in the interest of Ukraine. With the enormous losses and the collapsing economy in Russia Ukraine has no reason to give Russia anything.

Such disillusioned thinking clearly ignores the realities on the ground and is only going to prolong the suffering and bloodshed.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

The Facebook post is there, but the link to Gulagu.net is gone. Just the name of the site makes me skeptical; I find it unlikely that an FSB agent would post anything there. This is likely disinformation.

I have no doubt that plenty of Russians, both officials and the general public, are frustrated with the pace of this war and the successes Ukrainian resistance has had. However, that's far from considering the war a "total failure."

The other reason why I am skeptical about this post is that agents don’t do this kind of work. Analysts do, and they are specialized at a certain field. This “leak” is all over the place since it talks about things ranging from economics to tactical and strategic planning. This seems more like a rant by a layman like us.

 

[Strangelove]

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U.S. Sends Delegation To Venezuela As It Mulls Over Russia Oil Import Ban​

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- Mar 07, 2022, 8:00 AM CST
The United States government has sent a group of officials to Caracas amid discussions of a ban on Russian oil imports.

 

[Abominable]

Google Translate of the FB post:

18+ One of the insiders from the special services of the Russian Federation, I will publish without edits and censorship, because this is hell: “I’ll be honest right away: I have hardly slept all these days, almost all the time at work, my head is a little floating, like in a fog. And from overwork, sometimes I already catch states, as if all this is not real.
To be honest, the Pandora's box is open - a real global horror will begin by the summer - global famine is inevitable (Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain in the world, this year's harvest will be smaller, and logistical problems will bring the catastrophe to a peak point).
I can't tell you what guided those at the top when deciding on the operation, but now they are methodically lowering all the dogs on us (the Service). We are scolded for analytics - this is very in my profile, so I will explain what is wrong.
Recently, we have been increasingly pressed to customize reports to the requirements of management - I once touched on this topic. All these political consultants, politicians and their retinue, influence teams - all this created chaos. Strong.
The most important thing is that no one knew that there would be such a war, they hid it from everyone. And here's an example for you: you are asked (conditionally) to calculate the possibility of human rights protection in different conditions, including the attack of prisons by meteorites. You specify about meteorites, they tell you - this is so, reinsurance for calculations, nothing like this will happen. You understand that the report will be just for show, but you need to write in a victorious style so that there are no questions, they say, why do you have so many problems, did you really work badly. In general, a report is being written that when a meteorite falls, we have everything to eliminate the consequences, we are great, everything is fine. And you concentrate on tasks that are real - we don’t have enough strength anyway. And then suddenly they really throw meteorites and expect that everything will be according to your analytics, which was written from the bulldozer.
That is why we have a total piz_ets - I don’t even want to pick another word. There is no protection from sanctions for the same reason: well, it’s quite possible that Nabiullina will be sewn up with negligence (rather, the switchmen from her team), but what are they to blame for? No one knew that there would be such a war, so no one prepared for such sanctions. This is the reverse side of secrecy: since no one was told, then who could calculate what no one told about?
Kadyrov is going crazy. And the conflict almost started with us: perhaps even the Ukrainians threw in misinformation that it was we who handed over the routes of Kadyrov's special forces in the first days of the operation. They were covered there on the march in a terrible way, they had not yet begun to fight, but they were simply torn to pieces in some places. And off we go: it was the FSB that leaked the routes to the Ukrainians. I do not have such information, I will leave 1-2% for reliability (it cannot be completely ruled out either).
Blitzkrieg failed. It is simply impossible to complete the task now: if Zelensky and the authorities were captured in the first 1-3 days, they seized all the key buildings in Kyiv, they gave them the order to surrender - yes, the resistance would subside to the minimum values. In theory. But what's next? Even with this ideal variant, there was an unsolvable problem: with whom to negotiate? If we demolish Zelensky, well, with whom should we sign agreements? If with Zelensky, then after we demolish it, these papers are worth nothing. Opposition Platform for Life refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk is a coward, he fled. There is a second leader there - Boyko, but he refuses to work with us - even his own people will not understand him. They wanted to return Tsarev, so even our pro-Russians turned against him. Return Yanukovych? But as? If we say that it is impossible to occupy, then any of our authorities will be killed there in 10 minutes, as we leave. Occupy? Where are we going to get so many people? Commandant's offices, military police, counterintelligence, security - even with minimal resistance from the locals, we need 500 thousand or more people. Not counting the supply system. And there is a rule that by covering the poor quality of management with quantity, you only spoil everything. And this, I repeat, would be with the ideal option, which does not exist.
What now? We cannot announce mobilization for two reasons:
1) Large-scale mobilization will undermine the situation inside the country: political, economic, social.
2) Our logistics are already overstretched today. We will drive a many times larger contingent, and what will we get? Ukraine is a hefty country in terms of territory. And now the level of hatred towards us is going through the roof. Our roads simply won't be able to handle such supply caravans - everything will come to a standstill. And we won't manage to pull it out - because it's chaos.
And these two reasons fall out at the same time, although even one is enough to break everything off.
Losses: I don't know how many there are. Nobody knows. For the first two days there was still control, now no one knows what is going on there. You can lose large units in communication. They can be found, or they can dissolve due to being attacked. And there, even the commanders may not know how many of them are running around somewhere nearby, how many died, how many are in captivity. The number of deaths is definitely in the thousands. Maybe 10 thousand, maybe 5, or maybe only 2. Even at the headquarters they don’t know for sure. But it should be closer to 10. And now we don’t count the LDNR corps - they have their own accounting.
Now, even if Zelensky is killed, taken prisoner, nothing will change. There is Chechnya in terms of hatred towards us. And now even those who were loyal to us are against it. Because it was planned from above, because we were told that there would be no such option, unless we were attacked. Because they explained that it was necessary to create the most credible threat in order to peacefully agree on the right conditions. Because we were initially preparing protests within Ukraine against Zelensky. Excluding our direct entry. Intrusions, to put it simply.

Even if we were to assume this is true - and this is highly likely to be CIA disinformation. Why would we listen to the opinion of an FSB agent on a military operation? That would be like asking an FBI agent how the Iraq war was going. He can have a personal opinion but being FSB doesn't qualify it in any way.

The same applies to his fears about the sanctions being imposed. As an FSB agent this is a matter that is out of his jurisdiction.

The fact he's supporting Ukrainian numbers for Russian deaths makes me also question this. You can call Putin a liar, but Ukraine has zero ability to kill 10,000 Russian soldiers. Either he's ignorant of the true number and is fearing the worst, or this whole post is fabricated. While Russia has been destroying entire bases and city blocks, all Ukrainian military successes have been at the company level at best. Put it this way, there's a reason why Ukraine stopped reporting the number of its own deaths after day one.

Chechens only make up 5% of currently deployed personnel but been a strong focus of Ukrainian and American disinformation. Their numbers are less than those deployed from Russia's eastern regions. Despite this we've had multiple Chechen commanders who have been reported killed but have turned up alive and laughing about reports of their death. The expression "living in their heads rent-free" comes to mind.

So all in all, this sounds like something a Ukrainian would want to hear rather than something an FSB agent would say.

The only credible part from this is that the FSB is highly compromised.

 

[taxiya]

Russia is already stepping back on their demands. Russia is in desperate need of an exit strategy which also saves Putin’s face. But that’s not in the interest of Ukraine. With the enormous losses and the collapsing economy in Russia Ukraine has no reason to give Russia anything.

What was Russia's earlier demands from Ukraine?

 

[tokenanalyst]

Such disillusioned thinking clearly ignores the realities on the ground and is only going to prolong the suffering and bloodshed.

1-The president begging for countries to risk a nuclear war for them.
2- The puppet masters already planning for an evacuation of the leadership.

Those are not good signs of a winning army.

The worst thing is that this delusions are closing the door for a resolution were Ukraine will be able to keep most of their territorial integrity by just satisfying Russia security needs, at time passes without a resolution means that every square kilometer that Russians occupy could mean territory that the Ukrainians will never get it back.