Another ISW assessment:
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Fredrick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
In more detail:
March 6, 2:00 PM EST
The military situation on the ground has not changed significantly in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to mass for renewed offensive operations east and west of Kyiv, west of Kharkiv, and toward Mykolayiv-Odesa but have not yet initiated new large-scale ground attacks. Russia has increased aerial and artillery/rocket attacks on civilian positions and infrastructure, including known evacuation corridors. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a second counter-attack in two days, this time near Mariupol. The Ukrainian air force and air defense forces continue to operate, inflicting damage on Russian ground forces and disrupting Russian air and missile operations.
Key Takeaways
Immediate items to watch
Note:
The Ukrainian General Staff also noted that Russian forces illegally present in the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria are on high alert, although it also claimed that their morale is poor and they do not want to fight in Ukraine.[17] ISW has no independent verification of either claim. Russia has maintained three battalions in Transnistria for decades despite the opposition of the Moldovan government. Those battalions have historically had low readiness levels and are unlikely to be able to conduct effective mechanized maneuver operations on their own. The Ukrainian General Staff may be reporting on them because of indicators they are seeing that the Russians intend to use them in conjunction with an attack on Odesa. ISW has no independent indicators to support such an assessment, although it would be logical.
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Fredrick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
In more detail:
March 6, 2:00 PM EST
The military situation on the ground has not changed significantly in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to mass for renewed offensive operations east and west of Kyiv, west of Kharkiv, and toward Mykolayiv-Odesa but have not yet initiated new large-scale ground attacks. Russia has increased aerial and artillery/rocket attacks on civilian positions and infrastructure, including known evacuation corridors. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a second counter-attack in two days, this time near Mariupol. The Ukrainian air force and air defense forces continue to operate, inflicting damage on Russian ground forces and disrupting Russian air and missile operations.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces spent the past 24 hours largely regrouping and preparing for renewing offensive operations around Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Mykolayiv.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reports the presence of a large concentration of Russian forces west of Kharkiv that it assesses will launch a wide offensive southwest toward the Dnipro River, although no such offensive has begun as of this publication.
Immediate items to watch
- Russian operations northwest of Kyiv may resume attacks on the city and/or attempts to encircle it to the west in the next 24-48 hours;
- Russian forces east of Kyiv may resume their drive likely intended to envelop Kyiv from the east;
- Russian forces may attempt amphibious landings anywhere along the Black Sea Coast from Odesa to the mouth of the Southern Bug in the next 24-48 hours.
Note:
The Ukrainian General Staff also noted that Russian forces illegally present in the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria are on high alert, although it also claimed that their morale is poor and they do not want to fight in Ukraine.[17] ISW has no independent verification of either claim. Russia has maintained three battalions in Transnistria for decades despite the opposition of the Moldovan government. Those battalions have historically had low readiness levels and are unlikely to be able to conduct effective mechanized maneuver operations on their own. The Ukrainian General Staff may be reporting on them because of indicators they are seeing that the Russians intend to use them in conjunction with an attack on Odesa. ISW has no independent indicators to support such an assessment, although it would be logical.
