Ukrainian War Developments

[ArmchairAnalyst]

Not a bad theory.

Just one problem

Nobody likes the French.

Why would anyone in Europe want to see this happen? No one likes the French.

If the French invaded western Ukraine and met up with the Russian army somewhere on some farm there, then that would be fine.

If the French was leading some ragtag European/NATO army, no way José.

The French army would have to march through Germany, then Poland to get to Ukraine. Not looking at the map right now, lol, so I could be wrong.

Since I am an old-timer, going to stick with the old-time view. Actually, already forgot the old-time view, because things seemed like they have changed, but it has not. It takes a while to remember something that was suppose to be obsolete. LOL!

This is a replay of the causes and start of World War One, except WW1 engulfed the whole continent. This war, is just a mini-WW1.

And let's keep it that way.

China is doing the right thing. China should shut up and do not inflame the situation.

Support Russia at all costs. After all, China is not alone in supporting Russia. A lot of countries still buying gas from mother Russia.

Nothing like World War 1 imo.
Bascially a re-enactment of conflict during the Cold War so far. Same players. Same principles.

 

[Helius]

Most of us expect Ukraine to lose, I think. At the same, I believe very few expected the Russians to display such operational mismanagement where their supply convoy after supply convoy keeps getting wrecked, leaving their front-line combat units low on food,ammo and fuel to the point that equipment they've lost more have been captured than destroyed in battle.

Allegedly near Mykolaiv. Destroyed and abandoned Russian artillery. I counted 7 intact pieces of artillery that were abandoned and will now be in the hands of Ukrainians:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t7wjyb

There're a million different ways to explain the Russian convoys and abandoned/destroyed equipment that you see in these bite-sized clips, especially so when they're put out by Ukrainian PR.

Many of us have already posited so many scenarios from the fast op tempo of Russian advancement necessitating abandoning non-functional equipment; to staging the same abandoned/destroyed column from different angles/locales to make it look like it is happening everywhere; to using old war footage and pass it off as current; to downright faking friendly losses as the enemy's either by painting over it/using digital manipulation or straight-up lying... it goes on and on.

Or you could just apply Occam's Razor and go with the assumption that the Russian forces are grossly mismanaged, and there's certainly evidence to support that, too.

We're 10 days into the war, but it goes without saying the fog of war very much still applies.

 

[Stealthflanker]

If anyone wants daily updates from someone who has live action in Ukraine (

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), follow this page:

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. (posts are in russian)

I wish Vkontakte get their shit together.. like fukin site banned me out few minutes after i registered in it. like WTF bro.. i just got in and the first comment i made was in Su-34 photo. and they said i cannot recover my account as there is no pictures in it. dafaq.

My earliest account there also got closed over "suspicious activity" and also irrecoverable.
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Other than that.. Russia seems not to deploy any Tu-22 yet. I guess there is no target there that worth the bomber or KH-32.

 

[Abominable]

Looks like the attempted colour revolution in Russia was a failure before it began. After days of spamming both western and Russian social media about a planned "demonstration", these are the numbers of arrests from Russian sources:

Moscow - 150 people (more for prevention, people don’t really crowd)
St. Petersburg - 200
Novosibirsk - 200
Khabarovsk - 20
Yekaterinburg - 200

No videos or footage of the protest in western or Russian media.

Meanwhile there's a 1,000 vehicle convoy of anti-vax truckers arriving in Washington....

 

[Temstar]

"High precision" dumb bombs.

According to discussions in China about the high loses of RuAF, it's due to preference for dropping iron bombs over PGM. I say preference because apparently KAB-500L is not really that expensive, certainly not compared to losing planes like this. Yet according to the same source the majority of KAB-500L ever produced ended up being exported to PLAAF to equip Su-30MKK. RuAF insists that with good training and bomb sights like SVP-24 they can drop iron bombs just about as accurately as laser guided bombs.

Does this actually work or a myth? Or does it only work when you drop bombs at low altitude making yourself vulnerable to MANPADS?

 

[siegecrossbow]

According to discussions in China about the high loses of RuAF, it's due to preference for dropping iron bombs over PGM. I say preference because apparently KAB-500L is not really that expensive, certainly not compared to losing planes like this. Yet according to the same source the majority of KAB-500L ever produced ended up being exported to PLAAF to equip Su-30MKK. RuAF insists that with good training and bomb sights like SVP-24 they can drop iron bombs just about as accurately as laser guided bombs.

Does this actually work or a myth? Or does it only work when you drop bombs at low altitude making yourself vulnerable to MANPADS?

Even with dumb bombs you can still use computerized targeting to increase accuracy. You still need to fly fairly low though.

 

[foofy]

Nazi won’t let them out.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500465122837422081

 

[asif iqbal]

the question is can Russia take Kiev and the other largers cities before the Western counter attack kicks in

once the supplies of ATGM + MANPADS are in the thousands Russian Air Force will suffer too much

without air cover those convoys will be at the mercy of the Anti-tank teams which so far are doing a devastating job

the Western counter attack will proceed within next few days which means Russia does not have alot of time

 

[sferrin]

 

[asif iqbal]

Visible in this video- an active Pantsir SAM systems guards a Russian convoy inside of Russia. Russia is starting to realize that they don’t have air superiority.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500254122745946114