PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[solarz]

The most likely scenario, for me, is that sometime before 2049 the people of Taiwan, in a referendum, vote for Reunification. No one gets killed, and no one can really complain. All China has to do is keep developing and this should happen naturally.

I don't think that's likely at all. Long before sentiment in Taiwan turns pro-reunification, the US/DPP will have orchestrated something to force China's hand.

 

[Andy1974]

I don't think that's likely at all. Long before sentiment in Taiwan turns pro-reunification, the US/DPP will have orchestrated something to force China's hand.

Well this is a power that China handed them by defining it’s red lines, the decision to be “forced” or not, still lies with China.

 

[solarz]

Well this is a power that China handed them by defining it’s red lines, the decision to be “forced” or not, still lies with China.

Regardless, China is not going to have the luxury to wait until then.

 

[Andy1974]

Regardless, China is not going to have the luxury to wait until then.

Well then, it’s just as well they are prepared for every eventuality.

 

[zxy_bc]

Here is my take:

The most likely scenario, for me, is that sometime before 2049 the people of Taiwan, in a referendum, vote for Reunification. No one gets killed, and no one can really complain. All China has to do is keep developing and this should happen naturally.

If there is to be an invasion, I doubt that some scenarios here are realistic.

Why would China destroy infrastructure, fabs or any other valuable civilian assets? They want reunification, not destruction. They want to integrate Taiwan, not have to rebuild it. I think they would focus on the Taiwanese military and leadership

EW, Cyber, Sabotage, Spy’s and (Taiwanese) Traitors could disable a lot of the Taiwan military effectiveness at the right moments. China must have a lot of human assets in Taiwan. Perhaps they could stage a coup? Also a bloodless way to end the situation.

Otherwise, as many noted, China will need to get “boots” on the ground as quickly as possible, but perhaps not in the traditional sense. The trajectory of UGV, UUV, and UAV surely means they will be doing the most dangerous work, in the most dangerous places, like beaches or minefields. Perhaps the PLA soldiers will be doing the initial landing from the comfort of some shipping container somewhere.

I think we will see some pretty unconventional tactics due to advances in technologies. I would like to see innovations in underwater or even underground delivery of forces as well as direct deployment from the mainland as an alternative to the 071 and 075 fleet which is at considerable risk from AShM missiles launched by bombers far out at sea as well as subs, mines, torpedos etc.

Only in the event of resistance, some bottleneck or hold up, should China really pound the localized resistance. The war would only be won once Taiwan is on board and in a better situation than before the war. As someone said, this reunification is era defining.

China will want to show how they preserved as many lives as they could, while at the same time going for a rapid finish, which makes me think they will focus on the political leadership by going for decapitation strikes at zero hour followed by Sabotage, Cyber, EW, Information/Propaganda and immediate boots on ground delivered by surprise tactics.

This gives a shot at immediate victory, at very low cost in lives. Money isn’t important, these weapons have been bought and paid for with the intention of using them in this scenario, China likes using their weapons and uses them up in training happily.

Highly unlikely. Taiwanese media is just a translation machine of CNN, BBC and any other English language media sources. As long as the English world continue to pump "Chinese inevitable collapse", "the totalitarian regime of Chinese oppression" and other subliminal anti-CCP messages, there will not be any pro-reunification sentiment. (DDP has also already sealed the route for Taiwanese to work or study in mainland by imposing numerous security and political surveillances on those that returned from mainland) Taiwan by 2049 would be more likely become the old DPP-KMT Martial Law Taiwan 2.0.

 

[zxy_bc]

The economic packages provided to Taiwan are not just to "spawn pro-reunification sentiment among the Taiwanese population" (As most of them don't even realize how dependent their economy is towards mainland) It's a smart economic strategy to allow valuable high tech Taiwanese firms relocate their assets to policy-welcomed and tax-friendly mainland regions, as well as in the event of a possible military liberation, maintaining the normalcy of live in Taiwan after the liberation. (Since if Taiwanese economy prior the liberation was already semi- or even fully mainland dominated, after liberation the Taiwanese economy would not receive any massive investment pullouts or living standards decline either)

 

[Mohsin77]

What more, China may not even need to waste cruise missiles on Taiwan’s air bases. Many of its MLRS can hit Taiwan from mainland China. If they need a little more range, load them onto empty container or similar ships and fire them as far from the Chinese coast as needed to bring them within range. With MLRS, they can spam the air fields all day long hourly and not bat an eye in terms of munitions expenditure.

I love this move.

I'd bet you the Chinese Navy is already preparing this surprise tactic.

You better hope you didn't reveal classified intel lolz.

#OPSEC !

 

[Mohsin77]

Long before sentiment in Taiwan turns pro-reunification, the US/DPP will have orchestrated something to force China's hand.

Can't un-ring that bell.

Let's say they trigger the conflict and the opening salvos don't go their way.

So, what's the next step in their escalation ladder?

 

[solarz]

Can't un-ring that bell.

Let's say they trigger the conflict and the opening salvos don't go their way.

So, what's the next step in their escalation ladder?

If the public sentiment was turning against them, they might very well feel they've got nothing to lose.

 

[drowingfish]

That comment was made about returning US aircraft.

You might want to look up Taurus cruise missiles. There is no physics law that demand bunker busters must be gravity bombs.

It is also a bit pointless talking about theoretical maximum when the far more important factor is time.

How long do you think it will take to get 280 aircraft in and out of those mountains hideouts? How long do they dare to keep those doors open during combat, knowing a cruise missile could come barrelling in at any time? I mean once they have repaired the damaged taxi way in front of the tunnel, they will know the PLA is going to be sending in more missiles to take them out. How easy would it be for a TV guided, man-in-the-loop weapon to be steered down the open tunnel?


These mountain bases are nothing new, and I am sure the PLA would have a whole laundry list of means to deal with them.

What more, China may not even need to waste cruise missiles on Taiwan’s air bases. Many of its MLRS can hit Taiwan from mainland China. If they need a little more range, load them onto empty container or similar ships and fire them as far from the Chinese coast as needed to bring them within range. With MLRS, they can spam the air fields all day long hourly and not bat an eye in terms of munitions expenditure.


I think it’s going to take more tbh. Morden SAMs are better at evading ARMs, and Taiwan is much more densely defended than Iraq. But costs won’t come into the equation when it comes to war. The only consideration is munitions numbers and availability. When it comes to war, it costs what it costs. Generals are not going to care how much money missiles and bombs costs but rather they manage munitions expenditure rates against replenishment rates and expected numbers needed for key objectives.


I think you are way too obsessed with those mountain bases. They are at best a minor factor, since the entrances serve as natural bottlenecks, so even if they do manage to get planes airborne or will only be a handful at a time at most, which would not be enough to be anything more than a new annoyance at best, and target practice for the PLAAF fighters most likely.

But in reality, any planes Taiwan managed to get into them before the bombs hit will most likely stay there until the PLA comes to claim them.

I think the obssession with not letting a single ROCAF aircraft takeoff stemmed from the days when ROCAF held qualitative advantage over PLAAF. Given the current balance of power in the air, as well as the accuracy of ballistic missiles, PLARF can afford to shift some of their focus to the destruction of other core capabilities rather than being pre-occupied with bombarding runways. if a few ROCAF fighters make it in the air it really isn't a big issue, since they will not have adequate support and guidance.

neither is it too difficult to suppress a majority of ROCAF's runways. take the two easter coast airports for example. lets assume that an initial barrage of 30 missiles hits each airport and disables them as repair teams attempt to repair, PLARF only has to harrass those engineers with 3-5 missiles at an hour intervals to render further damage and prevent any work from being done (since engineers will have to reassess after each barrage). this means 50 missiles will be able to suppress a single airport for 7-8 hours, that is a lot of time for a modern air force to do a lot of damage. and this is all discounting all other PLA assets.