PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[Suetham]

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List of Taiwan targets for China's bombers revealed​

Taipei's Zhongzheng and Zhongshan districts would be heavily bombarded in first wave​

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Amid China's show of force last weekend featuring eight bombers and reports that this is a "dress rehearsal" for war, China affairs analyst Ian Easton has provided a list of the major potential Taiwan targets of Chinese warplanes in the event of an attack, including in the heart of Taipei.

On Saturday (Jan. 23), the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) flew

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over Taiwan's air identification defense zone (ADIZ), including one Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft, four J-16 fighter jets, and eight Xian H-6K bombers. This was followed the next day by an intrusion into the ADIZ by

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, including two Y-8 anti-submarine planes, two SU-30 fighter jets, six J-10 jet fighters, four J-16s, and one Y-8 reconnaissance plane.

On Tuesday (Jan. 26), Forbes cited Bernard Cole, a professor at the National War College in Washington, D.C., as

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that the sorties represented a "dress rehearsal" for a future assault on Taiwan. “It does demonstrate the PLAAF’s ability to put together a multi-plane strike, which we would likely see in the event of a hot war against Taiwan,” said Cole.

When asked to comment on which Taiwanese locations would likely be targeted by China's fleet of over 200 H-6 bombers in the event of an all-out war, Easton provided a list of targets acquired from internal PLA military documents labeled for "military use only" and published in

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"The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan's Defense and American Strategy in Asia." According to Easton, who is a fellow at the Project 2049 Institute, the first wave of attacks would be aimed at Taiwan's "important command and control centers, early-warning radars, airstrips, and air defense batteries."

These attacks would be carried out by missiles as part of SEAD, or "suppression of enemy air defenses" as well as special operations forces (SOF) on the ground. These operations would also include the use of high-powered microwave and laser weapons to destroy computer hardware and electronic systems to weaken defenders' "information domination and situational awareness."

Once the SEAD and SOF operations have been completed, China would dispatch its H-6 bombers and fighters to fire missiles and bombs at an even wider variety of targets across the country. Easton said that during these initial attacks, the PLA will carry out "key point strikes" designed to quickly take out Taiwan's government, with the Presidential Office likely "the first to be hit."

Other key government structures include the Executive Yuan, Legislative Yuan, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Economic Affairs, among others. Easton said that because these buildings will be well defended, spies will be planted in advance to pinpoint the locations of key leaders and weaknesses in the buildings and bunkers beneath them.

After Taipei's Zhongzheng District is heavily bombarded, the next area of focus will be the area of Dazhi near the Grand Hotel, Dominican International School, and Miramar Entertainment park, as the vast Heng Shan Military Command Center lies beneath. Outside of Taipei, the top military bases in China's sights include the Army Command Headquarters in Taoyuan's Longtan District, the Six Army Headquarters in Taoyuan's Zhongli District, the 10th Army Headquarters outside Taichung, and the Eighth Army Headquarters in Kaoshiung's Qishan District.

Because Taiwanese generals will be taking shelter in underground bunkers with complex networks of tunnels, the PLAAF plans to drop bunker-busting bombs. The bombers will also hone in on Taiwan's fuel supplies and power grid, striking every oil refinery, pipeline, power plant, and transformer in sight.

Easton wrote that PLA manuals send mixed signals with Taiwan's nuclear power plants, with one admonishing PLA officers not to bomb them, while another expresses confidence that China's air-to-ground missiles can be accurate enough to only take the plants offline, while not causing a catastrophic meltdown. With air superiority well in hand by this stage, Chinese bombers will destroy the remnants of fighter squadrons and mobile missile batteries.

The last wave of bombing that Easton wrote, referred to by the PLA as "final strikes," would consist of wiping out the rest of Taiwan's military forces and then taking aim at civilians to "terrorize the island into submission." To pave the way for invasion forces, bombers would destroy the country's transportation infrastructure, communications network, defense industries, supply depots, logistics centers, airports, and radio and TV stations.

When asked what weapons Taiwan has in its arsenal that could survive the massive first wave and strike back, Easton said the country's road-mobile Hsiung Feng cruise missiles "could easily survive and engage in counter strikes on enemy ships, amphibious staging areas, and airbases."

He said Taiwan's arsenal of short-range air defense missiles are "highly survivable." Examples include Tien Chien (Sky Sword, 天劍) missiles mounted on the Antelope air defense system, the Avenger Air Defense System, Sparrow missiles, Hawk missiles, and Stinger missiles.

He said that the Patriot-3 and Tien Kung III (Skybow III, 天弓三) launchers are somewhat mobile but "challenging to move and hide because they are so large and complex."

The following are locations where the PLA would likely strike early on in the war:

Northern Taiwan​

Taoyuan​

• Luzhu District

Taipei​

• Zhongzheng District
• Zhongshan District

New Taipei​

• Tamsui District
• Linkou District
• Xindian District
• Jinshan District
• Nangang District
• Sanzhi District

Hsinchu​

• Wufeng Township

Yilan​

• Su-ao Township

Central Taiwan​

Taichung​

• Taiping District
• Dadu District
• Ching Chuan Kang Air Base

Miaoli​

• Zhunan Township

Chiayi​

• Chiayi Airbase

Eastern Taiwan​

Hualien​

• Meilunshan

Taitung​

• Zhiben

Southern Taiwan​

Tainan​

• Xinhua District
• Jiali District

Kaohsiung​

• Renwu District
• Alian District
• Linyuan District
• Xiaogang District

Pingtung​

• Pingtung Airbase

Lienchiang County​

• Dongyin Township

Of particular note is the

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in Hsinchu's Wufeng Township because it houses PAVE PAWS early warning radar. The system can detect and monitor threats up to 5,000 kilometers away.

 

[caohailiang]

Plus US had to gather 5th Gen fighters in order to punch through J20s and overwhelm J11/J16/J10 series.

If the US do in fact decide to go hot, then some fighters are also needed to fend of possible H6 series, armed with long range cruise missiles, AShMs attacks, as well.

Two J20 brigades, and i assume the one in Anshan(together with bulk of other NTC units) will be tied down at home for contingency against S.Korea, that leaves just 1 brigade of J20 to the southeast front

let's say if US only forward deploy 2 F-22 squadrons and 2 F-35A squadrons from Alaska, plus the F-35B stationed in Iwakuni, and the 2 F-35a squadron in JSDF, those are more than 140 gen5 fighters, let's say in a very successful scenario where half of them are destroyed on the ground by PLARF, still US/Japan side would enjoy a 3:1 ratio in terms of gen5 fighters.

 

[solarz]

These guys surveyed young Taiwanese people on what they would do if the PLA invaded. The choices were:

A. Join the army and fight to the end
B. Don't worry, America will help us
C. We have no chance of winning
D. Surrender to protect our families

Most people choose C and D. A few chose B.

Not a single person chose A.

 

[Mohsin77]

It's not that the US is getting weaker over time. That is possible, but most likely it will continue to grow slowly at around 2% per year.

I'd rather plot the curves of US power vs the rest of the world over time:

I'd start the plot back in 1945. That would show a rise to peak in 1960 which would make the inflection point clearer. Overall, I think the Peak-Era of US power was between the 1940s to early 1990s.

China only spends 1.7% of GDP, so this figure would have to double to match the 3.5%-4% that the US regularly spends.

Chinese production costs don't equal US production costs. So this figure has to be normalized. Additionally, a large part of US defense spending goes to supporting its deployment and logistics infrastructure all over the world. China doesn't have that problem. Moreover, a significant part of US spending over the past 20 years has gone to COIN-related efforts.

All of this comes into play in the Taiwan scenario, and it partly explains why the Pentagon is losing its wargames.

 

[AndrewS]

I'd rather plot the curves of US power vs the rest of the world over time:

I'd start the plot back in 1945. That would show a rise to peak in 1960 which would make the inflection point clearer. Overall, I think the Peak-Era of US power was between the 1940s to early 1990s.

You're looking at relative decline. That's fair enough, but I think best to always make that clear versus absolute decline.

 

[Dante80]

You're looking at relative decline. That's fair enough, but I think best to always make that clear versus absolute decline.

I think that the main point to take from this is that when the status quo is apparently shifting in your favor, you have the luxury to ride the wave. Realpolitik dictates that, and -as a bonus- the Chinese society is self-organized in a way that shields it from the need to distract/regulate itself via strife and the fruits of imperialism.

So...I guess that the master plan for the rational actor would to work diligently, strengthen his position, and wait for the chips to fall. Of course, this is a crude over-generalization, sorry for that.

 

[plawolf]

Kadena/Naha are easy targets, not only because they are very close to China, but also because they are isolated set of targets. Once PLARF disable the runway, there is a few hour window in which PLAAF can first clear whatever are still flying in the sky, then use cruise missile or PGM to hit everything on the ground including stranded aircrafts.

Why bother clearing the skies? Keep the runways out of commission for a few hours and gravity kills any hostile planes in the air neat as you please. Then your strike assets go in to kill anything of value on the ground.

I dont think above can be replicated with cases like Hamamatsu/Komatsu/Nagoya, because they are too far away for Chinese tactical aircrafts to reach, while there are too many well-defended targets if you plan to strike with just ballistic missile and KD20.
Think of this in a reverse manner, do you think US side can easily destroy in-land PLAAF bases? i think the reason would apply both ways.

Please read what I wrote, and look at a map for goodness sake.

Hamamatsu is 2000km from Taiwan, Komatsu and Nagoya are a hair closer at around 1,900km.

Trying to launch a strike package from them targeting the Taiwan strait is unrealistic unless you plan on it being a one way trip from the get go.

Those are also nice big juicy static targets perfect for Chinese ballistic missile retaliation. And no, American BMD interceptors have not demonstrated anything like a credible defensive capability against even big standard pure ballistic DF21 class weapons. They might shoot a few down, but it stretches credulity to suggest they can shoot them all down. And those air bases are not designed to take hits like Chinese Air Force bases. Even a few hits will cause massive damage and probably knock those bases out of operation for sometime, especially if they hit sensitive areas like fuel silos, major hangers and the like.

LRASM might not have the number required, what about anti-ship tomahawk?

Easier to shoot down that target drones.

 

[Mohsin77]

You're looking at relative decline. That's fair enough, but I think best to always make that clear versus absolute decline.

We choose metrics based on relevance.

For example, if you're just starting an exercise routine, then you compare your present against your past-self to see a progression. But if you're playing sports, then you're competing against others, and that's what you need to measure against.

Geopolitics is competition, so I think my metric is more relevant.

 

[AndrewS]

Why bother clearing the skies? Keep the runways out of commission for a few hours and gravity kills any hostile planes in the air neat as you please. Then your strike assets go in to kill anything of value on the ground.

That works for exposed airbases where standard bombs/missiles can hit everything of value on the ground.

But Taiwan has 2 mountain airbases on the East Coast, which are supposed to have enough space to house 280 fighters. That would comprise the entire fighter complement of the Taiwanese Air Force. And if you have to rely on standoff weapons, they don't have the punch to permanently disable the mountain entrances and exits.

And if a runway can be repaired in 3 hours, it also means fighter jets can sortie out.
So the runways would need to be hit again (by some means) within 3 hours to prevent repair crews from working and to crater the runways again. Alternatively the mountain exits/entrances could be hit instead, but smaller warheads likely won't have much effect.

If these 2 mountain airbases have to be hit every 3 hours with a standoff strike, it's doable, but it will absorb a lot of resources.

So I reckon they would come under this sort of continuous attack until the local air defences have been degraded enough for deep penetrator bombs to be dropped against the mountain exits/entrances. Given that Desert Storm used 2000 SEAD missiles, something along the lines of 500 Harpies and 500 HARMs should be more than enough for a Taiwan campaign. So call it 1000 missiles at $800K each.

Then the next step would be getting fuel-air explosives detonated inside the tunnels.

Even after an attack, there are still likely to be undamaged aircraft inside these mountain airbases because the tunnel structures may be separated internally, so follow up attacks would be required.

Looking further into the future, GJ-11 and H-20 stealth bombers should be able to evade any air defences over Taiwan.
So they could drop deep penetrator bombs or MOABs against underground targets or mountain exits/entrances.

 

[plawolf]

That works for exposed airbases where standard bombs/missiles can hit everything of value on the ground.

That comment was made about returning US aircraft.

But Taiwan has 2 mountain airbases on the East Coast, which are supposed to have enough space to house 280 fighters. That would comprise the entire fighter complement of the Taiwanese Air Force. And if you have to rely on standoff weapons, they don't have the punch to permanently disable the mountain entrances and exits.

You might want to look up Taurus cruise missiles. There is no physics law that demand bunker busters must be gravity bombs.

It is also a bit pointless talking about theoretical maximum when the far more important factor is time.

How long do you think it will take to get 280 aircraft in and out of those mountains hideouts? How long do they dare to keep those doors open during combat, knowing a cruise missile could come barrelling in at any time? I mean once they have repaired the damaged taxi way in front of the tunnel, they will know the PLA is going to be sending in more missiles to take them out. How easy would it be for a TV guided, man-in-the-loop weapon to be steered down the open tunnel?

And if a runway can be repaired in 3 hours, it also means fighter jets can sortie out.
So the runways would need to be hit again (by some means) within 3 hours to prevent repair crews from working and to crater the runways again. Alternatively the mountain exits/entrances could be hit instead, but smaller warheads likely won't have much effect.

If these 2 mountain airbases have to be hit every 3 hours with a standoff strike, it's doable, but it will absorb a lot of resources.

These mountain bases are nothing new, and I am sure the PLA would have a whole laundry list of means to deal with them.

What more, China may not even need to waste cruise missiles on Taiwan’s air bases. Many of its MLRS can hit Taiwan from mainland China. If they need a little more range, load them onto empty container or similar ships and fire them as far from the Chinese coast as needed to bring them within range. With MLRS, they can spam the air fields all day long hourly and not bat an eye in terms of munitions expenditure.

So I reckon they would come under this sort of continuous attack until the local air defences have been degraded enough for deep penetrator bombs to be dropped against the mountain exits/entrances. Given that Desert Storm used 2000 SEAD missiles, something along the lines of 500 Harpies and 500 HARMs should be more than enough for a Taiwan campaign. So call it 1000 missiles at $800K each.

I think it’s going to take more tbh. Morden SAMs are better at evading ARMs, and Taiwan is much more densely defended than Iraq. But costs won’t come into the equation when it comes to war. The only consideration is munitions numbers and availability. When it comes to war, it costs what it costs. Generals are not going to care how much money missiles and bombs costs but rather they manage munitions expenditure rates against replenishment rates and expected numbers needed for key objectives.

Then the next step would be getting fuel-air explosives detonated inside the tunnels.

Even after an attack, there are still likely to be undamaged aircraft inside these mountain airbases because the tunnel structures may be separated internally, so follow up attacks would be required.

Looking further into the future, GJ-11 and H-20 stealth bombers should be able to evade any air defences over Taiwan.
So they could drop deep penetrator bombs or MOABs against underground targets or mountain exits/entrances.

I think you are way too obsessed with those mountain bases. They are at best a minor factor, since the entrances serve as natural bottlenecks, so even if they do manage to get planes airborne or will only be a handful at a time at most, which would not be enough to be anything more than a new annoyance at best, and target practice for the PLAAF fighters most likely.

But in reality, any planes Taiwan managed to get into them before the bombs hit will most likely stay there until the PLA comes to claim them.