H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
What's the point of delivering dumb bombs stealthily? Any high value target is too heavily defended for that so you need standoff munitions. For low value targets once you gain air supremacy, unstealthy strikers, drones and helicopters can wipe ground targets.
I do not mean dumb bombs. I mean satnav guided bombs. Sure, they're pricier than a dumb bomb, but they're still some 40 times cheaper than a missile with even better guidance, engine and wings.

I don't see it as black or white issue. In fact, I see a huge gray area in between. Maybe 10 or 20% of the guided munitions you use in the campaign, even in its early stage, will be high cost standoff munitions. And those will indeed be used to soften up the defenses a bit, but they will not come even close to removing them completely. Removing defenses completely takes weeks or months or years, depending on the exact war. Often time you will not even know just how well defended each target is.

Plus, in most situations there will be many more requirements overlapping within the same timeframe. China will not be able to afford going methodically and first establishing air superiority in the air. then getting rid of all the SAMs, then starting to hit other ground targets en masse. It will be an overlap of all three in most situations almost from day 1. There will be huge political and geostrategic motives to conduct the air campaign quickly, without waiting for perfect conditions that would yield minimal casualties.

Needs of a weeks long air campaign against a mid class opponent country is for tens of thousands of guided weapons. Only part of those will be standoff missiles, due to simple small inventory issues. (which are again there due to cost) I shudder to think what a campaign against a larger enemy would entail - there could be a need for well over a 100 thousand guided bombs within a single year. (I hate to be vague but since the rules of SDF forbid political discussions it's not wise to use actual country names as that usually leads to further offtopic discussions)
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I do not mean dumb bombs. I mean satnav guided bombs. Sure, they're pricier than a dumb bomb, but they're still some 40 times cheaper than a missile with even better guidance, engine and wings.

I don't see it as black or white issue. In fact, I see a huge gray area in between. Maybe 10 or 20% of the guided munitions you use in the campaign, even in its early stage, will be high cost standoff munitions. And those will indeed be used to soften up the defenses a bit, but they will not come even close to removing them completely. Removing defenses completely takes weeks or months or years, depending on the exact war. Often time you will not even know just how well defended each target is.

Plus, in most situations there will be many more requirements overlapping within the same timeframe. China will not be able to afford going methodically and first establishing air superiority in the air. then getting rid of all the SAMs, then starting to hit other ground targets en masse. It will be an overlap of all three in most situations almost from day 1. There will be huge political and geostrategic motives to conduct the air campaign quickly, without waiting for perfect conditions that would yield minimal casualties.

Needs of a weeks long air campaign against a mid class opponent country is for tens of thousands of guided weapons. Only part of those will be standoff missiles, due to simple small inventory issues. (which are again there due to cost) I shudder to think what a campaign against a larger enemy would entail - there could be a need for well over a 100 thousand guided bombs within a single year. (I hate to be vague but since the rules of SDF forbid political discussions it's not wise to use actual country names as that usually leads to further offtopic discussions)
its just such a narrow use case - for when you're already winning - for a highly specialized plane. if you're already winning and there's some minor air defense left, unstealthy fast strikers like J-16 are fine. This was shown by use of Su-25 and F-15E in previous conflicts even in presence of air defense. And if you really need the payload, just have optional hardpoints... but always have the primary mission - high value missile striker - in mind.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I do not mean dumb bombs. I mean satnav guided bombs. Sure, they're pricier than a dumb bomb, but they're still some 40 times cheaper than a missile with even better guidance, engine and wings.

I don't see it as black or white issue. In fact, I see a huge gray area in between. Maybe 10 or 20% of the guided munitions you use in the campaign, even in its early stage, will be high cost standoff munitions. And those will indeed be used to soften up the defenses a bit, but they will not come even close to removing them completely. Removing defenses completely takes weeks or months or years, depending on the exact war. Often time you will not even know just how well defended each target is.

Plus, in most situations there will be many more requirements overlapping within the same timeframe. China will not be able to afford going methodically and first establishing air superiority in the air. then getting rid of all the SAMs, then starting to hit other ground targets en masse. It will be an overlap of all three in most situations almost from day 1. There will be huge political and geostrategic motives to conduct the air campaign quickly, without waiting for perfect conditions that would yield minimal casualties.

Needs of a weeks long air campaign against a mid class opponent country is for tens of thousands of guided weapons. Only part of those will be standoff missiles, due to simple small inventory issues. (which are again there due to cost) I shudder to think what a campaign against a larger enemy would entail - there could be a need for well over a 100 thousand guided bombs within a single year. (I hate to be vague but since the rules of SDF forbid political discussions it's not wise to use actual country names as that usually leads to further offtopic discussions)

So while I agree that consideration would ideally certainly be made to allow for effective carriage of nonpowered, direct attack PGMs, I think ultimately they are (as I wrote at the bottom of the last page) likely secondary or even tertiary payload priorities for the likes of H-20 and JH-XX.

To be in a situation where you are interested in using aircraft like H-20 for dropping direct attack PGMs, you have probably already won the hard part of the high intensity conflict.




its just such a narrow use case - for when you're already winning - for a highly specialized plane. if you're already winning and there's some minor air defense left, unstealthy fast strikers like J-16 are fine. This was shown by use of Su-25 and F-15E in previous conflicts even in presence of air defense. And if you really need the payload, just have optional hardpoints... but always have the primary mission - high value missile striker - in mind.

Depending on the distance of the enemy, depending on the variety and quantity of targets that you are seeking to outright eliminate, and depending on the extent with which you can allow the enemy (or other third parties) to detect and track your bomber/strike sorties, it could be very conceivable where the use of stealth bombers to conduct bombing raids with PGMs makes sense.

I think it is fair to say that it makes sense for H-20 and a notional JH-XX to be designed in a way to accommodate an effective payload of direct attack PGMs -- but simultaneously, that the priority payload type driving the design and configuration of each aircraft's weapons bays will likely be relatively large standoff missile systems.


For example, B-2 is capable of carrying 16 JASSMs internally -- relatively large powered cruise missiles -- but are also capable of carrying up to 80 230kg class bombs that includes PGMs.
In the case of H-20, I imagine something similar will be possible, but obviously with the primary configuration likely to be carrying large powered cruise missiles rather than unpowered PGMs.
 

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
I expect the H-20 to be primarily used as stand off weapons platform. But I also expect smaller planes
(be they GJ-11, a strike configured J20 or a brand new JH7 successor) to utilize cheap guided bombs with very little stand off range MORE than bigger stand off platforms in the class of KD-88. Of course, each of the mentioned types would utilize them to a different degree, but even for the potential JH7 successor (if it even happens) I see the need of using smaller and cheaper guided bombs with very little stand off range being used in over 50% of all missions.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
I believe 4 missiles is a possible loadout. Nowhere did I say it can carry 1 missile only.

H-6 will not be able to approach within 600 km of a highly defended target because adversary CAP detection radius can extend over 1000 km. Nor will 600 km be sufficient. PLAAF and PLAN do not yet have 600 km cruise missiles. I made extremely conservative estimates using only munitions that actually exist and assuming the lowest possible performance. A H-6K loadout is still only 6 cruise missiles as well.

A hypothetical flying wing H-20 may be able to approach within 400 km to launch missiles - maybe 6. But let's just say it misses or the missiles get shot down. Now you have enemy CAP that knows the launch position looking for you. Sure the missiles can do a roundabout path, but then you need to approach closer which does not solve the survival problem. If the H-20 is spotted on IR tracking or a close up radar, it's done. How many H-20 can you afford to lose?

Meanwhile a very conservative JH-20 that assumes absolutely zero technical advancement that we don't already know about can approach within 400 km, launch payload, and escape easily. It'll be stealthy while approaching. Even if detected, it'll be able to outrun CAP aircraft, especially at the edges of their engagement envelopes and after ditching its strike payload.

Again, my estimate was very conservative: Al-31/WS-10C class engines, F-111 level aerodynamic performance, payload only a tiny bit higher than a standard J-11, using the most conservative size for internal weapons bay, assuming shaping and manufacturing techniques already proven to exist. Any advancement would make it far deadlier.
You talked about 30% bigger than a J11... I was responding about that figure. Remember that Tu-22 cannot even carry one long range missile internally but can still manage to carry shorter range Kh-15S in a rotary launcher. You need a way bigger plane than 30% more than a j-11 or you need a lot of them to do saturation. Would you risk launching small missiles while within the kill zone of a carrier group with your top of the line bomber or you would prefer to shot bigger ones at a safer zone of 800 km or 1000km? I would say that a H-6k lobbing missiles at 1000km have probably more chance of surviving than a stealth bomber at 200km...
 

FangYuan

Junior Member
Registered Member
You talked about 30% bigger than a J11... I was responding about that figure. Remember that Tu-22 cannot even carry one long range missile internally but can still manage to carry shorter range Kh-15S in a rotary launcher. You need a way bigger plane than 30% more than a j-11 or you need a lot of them to do saturation. Would you risk launching small missiles while within the kill zone of a carrier group with your top of the line bomber or you would prefer to shot bigger ones at a safer zone of 800 km or 1000km? I would say that a H-6k lobbing missiles at 1000km have probably more chance of surviving than a stealth bomber at 200km...

Exactly

We are not in the ww2 era, where a plane is forced to fly into enemy airspace and drop bombs. The development of missile technology allows to accurately strike the enemy from thousands of kilometers away.

Stealth aircraft is not a cure for all diseases. The effectiveness of stealth aircraft is greatly reduced when encountering an enemy whose technological level is too high or too low. To counter a military superpower that has many advanced technologiesy, stealth aircraft will have to face a lot of early warning aircraft, anti-stealth radar and high, medium and short range defense systems... .. Against backward enemies, the use of stealth aircraft is wasteful and ineffective: That's what happens in the middle east and afganistan

For each enemy, each war situation is different, different solutions are needed. The correctness here is a combination of stealth and non-stealth aircraft, dumb and smart bombs, long-range and short-range missiles, high tech and low tech
 
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Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
We are not in the ww2 era, where a plane is forced to fly into enemy airspace and drop bombs. The development of missile technology allows to accurately strike the enemy from thousands of kilometers away.
Only if you know where to hit.
One of the main purposes of the manned bomber is precisely to be able to strike(or do other stand-in activities) even when you don't.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
For land targets, look at the cost difference between the different JASSMs, which we can use as representative of powered standoff missile costs

JASSM
400km range: $0.5M
900km range: $1.0M
1900km range: $1.5M

If you look at the geography of the 1st Island Chain, a 900km range sino-JASSM launched from a truck can reach all the land targets that a JH-XX could reach. Plus the missiles can receive their own fighter escort like a JH-XX strike package would

And a JH-XX some 30% larger than a J-11 is going to cost like $150M. So a JH-XX is going to have to launch like 300 missiles before it works out cheaper than launching JASSM missiles from trucks. That's over 35 missions for a JH-XX to fly without being shot down.

I also think a 400-500km missile range is just too close to the AWACs and fighter defences. It risks having the launch platform shot down. Plus the incoming missiles can also be tracked and shot down.

Hence for land-attack, trucks launching powered missiles looks like a better option than a brand new JH-XX design

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So I see China going ahead with GJ-11s and H-20s.

They are more relevant and versatile because they have broadband stealth which allows them to penetrate deep and launch stealthy glide missiles (100km range) like the JSOW ($0.3M) or SDB ($40K).

At the same time, GJ-11s and H-20 can still launch powered missiles if required, and credibly launch these within 400km of a target
 
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