Chinese semiconductor industry

[Overbom]

Chinese don't want Samsung.

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(<1% of market). They are only leaving the semiconductor fabs and R&D facilities,

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Market demand is very flexible for consumer products. 3 nm is already going to be far more expensive than 7 nm, while 7 nm with 3D packaging is likely to have similar performance, maybe a little more battery consumption. Then add a little tariffs for Trump reasons, and they're now unaffordable. ez pz. Consumers can't tell the difference and one phone is double the price of another, easy choice.

If local demand is covered by Chinese phone manufacturers then thats a win for China.

Now if they are expanding their R&D centers in China then thats another win as these facilities contribute to the innovation ecosystem

 

[krautmeister]

Apple uses Chinese components because Chinese parts are of high quality at the right prices. If China imposes sanction on Apple, this would send Apple and foxconn into disarray, the US stock market into a tailspin. This would put big political pressure on the US hegemon.

It is unimaginable for the US consumers who will realize that their Apple stores are running out of inventory.

The price to pay for China is small comparatively, if the big bully is forced to cancel all sanctions.

The problem with this kind of tactic is that you're assuming the Americans are logical actors who will act in their own self interest. The Americans are ideologues, whose domestic and foreign policy are dominated by irrational ideologues of one persuasion or another. Nothing about them indicates rationality. It's all about ideology, all about emotions and all about feeling good about themselves. At best, it is sometimes about profits and money but in most cases their ideology trumps everything else. That's why you have cliques among their political and civil society elites who will implement policies that harm themselves MORE than it harms their targets. Look at what they did sanctioning China's semiconductor industry. This stupid policy is going to result in them losing their control over the world semiconductor industry while strengthening China's. China is the world's biggest market. ANY and ALL sanctions on China will fail because unlike all of the US past targets, China can and will eventually recreate any and all sanctioned items, this is just a matter of time. It's only the hubris and ingrained racism inherent in so-called American exceptionalism that prevents them from seeing the light. It is also this hubris and ingrained racism that will be their downfall.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

If local demand is covered by Chinese phone manufacturers then thats a win for China.

Now if they are expanding their R&D centers in China then thats another win as these facilities contribute to the innovation ecosystem

yep, local demand is more than covered. In fact, all Samsung phones remaining in China aren't even made by Samsung (not even in Korea), they're just rebranded local OEM phones.

Even Samsung factories in Vietnam rely on

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It is likely that at least 30-40% of the value of a Samsung phone is made in China at this point.

 

[antiterror13]

Good news bro; hopefully China can reduce the gap from 2 generation to just 1 generation due to the TSMC 3nm delay combined SMIC acceleration with N+2 this year, and hopefully China can start trial with 5nm by next year, otherwise the 2 generation gap will continue;

2 gaps will continue until China can develop EUVL machine, perhaps in 2025

 

[Overbom]

2 gaps will continue until China can develop EUVL machine, perhaps in 2025

As long as China has mastered 28nm and 14nm then that should be game over for the vast majority of Western IC exports.

 

[Topazchen]

Some fantastic news gentlemen. Take time and read

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[AndrewS]

As long as China has mastered 28nm and 14nm then that should be game over for the vast majority of Western IC exports.

IIRC, 14nm should cover 80% of semiconductor demand.

 

[ansy1968]

Some fantastic news gentlemen. Take time and read

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@Topazchen great development bro, August is Chinese ghost month but it look likes Christmas with gift keep on giving ...LOL. With these news plus @foofy previous post, both the 14nm and 7nm will be produced simultaneously next year, one using fully domestic equipment while the other in the Shanghai FAB. @antonius123 bro we both had been good this year hope this gift satisfied you cause I'm for one is definitely thrill....

 

[tokenanalyst]

The problem with this kind of tactic is that you're assuming the Americans are logical actors who will act in their own self interest. The Americans are ideologues, whose domestic and foreign policy are dominated by irrational ideologues of one persuasion or another. Nothing about them indicates rationality. It's all about ideology, all about emotions and all about feeling good about themselves. At best, it is sometimes about profits and money but in most cases their ideology trumps everything else. That's why you have cliques among their political and civil society elites who will implement policies that harm themselves MORE than it harms their targets. Look at what they did sanctioning China's semiconductor industry. This stupid policy is going to result in them losing their control over the world semiconductor industry while strengthening China's. China is the world's biggest market. ANY and ALL sanctions on China will fail because unlike all of the US past targets, China can and will eventually recreate any and all sanctioned items, this is just a matter of time. It's only the hubris and ingrained racism inherent in so-called American exceptionalism that prevents them from seeing the light. It is also this hubris and ingrained racism that will be their downfall.

I totally agree with you, despite the power that U.S. companies have over the White House, the dialogue on China has been totally hijacked by the national security industrial complex, these ideologues do not care about the damage they cause, they do not care if the U.S. lose 200K jobs or 500 companies go bankrupt as long they perceive that they are winning those are causalities of "war", these are the same as people who wasted 20 years in Afghanistan spending trillions and killing hundred of thousands, that same people who said rebuilding Iraq was going to be a walk in the park.
But the biggest danger comes in 2024-2025 because i think there is a high probability that Trump will win a second term and he comes for revenge with a huge amount of sanctions. I think companies like Xiaomi, lenovo and others should take positions in Chinese equipment, manufacturing, EDA Software companies and make a "group" to advance semiconductor manufacturing in China and not leave everything to Huawei or the government because there is no guarantee that Xiaomi will not be the next Huawei. This is no longer about 5g, ideologues in America have taken over the narrative.

 

[antonius123]

As long as China has mastered 28nm and 14nm then that should be game over for the vast majority of Western IC exports.

For now yes, but for 2025? the chip will be used widely are not 28nm and 14nm anymore, but perhaps 5nm and 3nm, while 2nm and 1nm will have been mass produced and 0.5nm will have been on trial and