J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

[Blitzo]

I actually am hoping for simulated air combats between the J-20 and Su-30SM. Since the Su-30SM is pretty much a MKI we’ll be able to figure out whether BS Dhanoa’s “several kilometers away” claim is factual .

p.s. Who am I kidding. A J-20 flown by a kid with less than 100 hours on the plane has a 17:0 kill ratio against a flanker.

Yeah don't even joke about that lol, the claim itself is not even worth substantiating or entertaining in the first place.

I say this only partly tongue-in-cheek, but I don't think the smell test applies to the US. If it did, the Zumwalt wouldn't have survived the first design meeting.

Zumwalt sort of made sense at the time, it died from a thousand independent incompetent cuts.

For the US flying 5th gens with the IAF at present or in the recent past doesn't make sense either way.

Anyway, I see what you're getting at that this requires a significant degree of trust. I think that trust is there between China and Russia and will remain so for the foreseeable future (for at least as long as the J-20 remains sensitive technology and probably long after it's become obsolete). I would also agree that even given that trust the PLAAF would still want to hold its cards close to its chest, except for one thing: I think it also wants to show off. In fact, I think it's dying to do it.

Think about it, since 1949 until the Sino-Soviet split, the USSR was the richer, bigger, stronger, and better-looking older brother. Even after the split, Russia remained the dominant power in the Communist bloc - the admiration (or envy) was still there, it's just that added to it there was now acrimony.

Decades later and fortunes have changed. China is now the one, as the kids say, ballin'. You bet it wants to invite Russia over to the new house to get a look at all the new toys and drive the Lambo around! This kind of flex is a dream come true for all the old-timer generals in the PLA. That's why we hear reports of Russian soldiers getting up close and personal with all the new gear and the J-20 participating.

Whether the PLA is now the rich kid on the block relative to Russia or not is irrelevant to my reasoning...

All that matters here is how much the PLA trusts their Russian counter parts in terms of giving them exposure to arguably their most important and sensitive aircraft in service at present.

If the PLA were doing this based on arrogance or a sense of superiority, then frankly I'd be somewhat concerned on their behalf.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

If the PLA were doing this based on arrogance or a sense of superiority, then frankly I'd be somewhat concerned on their behalf.

Be a little concerned but not too much. As more money flows into the PLA's (and China's in general) coffers and China's technology advances, it'll both take a more profligate attitude to money and spending, and lose the second-mover advantage of knowing what the next step is and how to go after it. There'll be the occasional bad decision here and boondoggle there, it's just the nature of the game. One just hopes these trends won't go to the extremes they've gone in other places.

Along with that, attitudes toward operational secrecy will relax as China goes from jealously guarding every advantage it has, no matter how measly, to flaunting its strength both to advertise its greatness and deter its foes. That's also natural and we hope it won't go to pathological extremes, as it's gone elsewhere.

Now, I stress that the most important thing here is that Russia has proved itself trustworthy enough in the eyes of China's leadership to be let this close, because without their blessing none of this would be happening. Whatever "clout" the PLA wants to show is a very secondary consideration.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Yeah don't even joke about that lol, the claim itself is not even worth substantiating or entertaining in the first place.





Zumwalt sort of made sense at the time, it died from a thousand independent incompetent cuts.

For the US flying 5th gens with the IAF at present or in the recent past doesn't make sense either way.




Whether the PLA is now the rich kid on the block relative to Russia or not is irrelevant to my reasoning...

All that matters here is how much the PLA trusts their Russian counter parts in terms of giving them exposure to arguably their most important and sensitive aircraft in service at present.

If the PLA were doing this based on arrogance or a sense of superiority, then frankly I'd be somewhat concerned on their behalf.

The PLA doesn’t do things out of arrogance. I listened to a recent podcast by Yankee and Shi Lao about last year’s tank biathlon. They’ve been invited to an event by the soldiers who participated in the 2020 event and Shi also even got to drive the tank, so the information is most likely legit. China was on the cusp of winning of the finale but the Russian officer pleaded with the PLA higher ups to slow down (in a less direct manner) because the games were rigged so that Russia will be champion every year. In fact the kids at the champion ceremony only knows how to sing the Russian national anthem and didn’t prepare any other songs at all. China complied to save face for them. Can you imagine any other participating nations of doing the same?

I think this is caused by genuine geopolitical pressure since China and Russia are getting squeezed from East and West simultaneously. Even in its present form, the J-20 can simulate top of the line fifth generation fighters like the F-35 in some mission profiles, so at a minimum it could provide Russian pilots with familiarity with fifth gen tactics.

 

[getready]

It's less about what specific aircraft type they're exercising with and more about how much they trust the partner nation that they are training with.

If they really are involving J-20s in this exercise with Russia to a meaningful degree, then it would have to be built on quite a significant degree of trust.

Do you envision the degree of trust between the two countries will reach that stage in near future where China is comfortable including j20s in high level exercises? I believe relations are at a high at the moment. Helped by current circumstances where US trying to pick a fight with both powers and comically trying to drive a wedge between the two at same time


Or is it just China not wanting to reveal their top of the line stealth aircraft for time being?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

The PLA doesn’t do things out of arrogance. I listened to a recent podcast by Yankee and Shi Lao about last year’s tank biathlon. They’ve been invited to an event by the soldiers who participated in the 2020 event and Shi also even got to drive the tank, so the information is most likely legit. China was on the cusp of winning of the finale but the Russian officer pleaded with the PLA higher ups to slow down (in a less direct manner) because the games were rigged so that Russia will be champion every year. In fact the kids at the champion ceremony only knows how to sing the Russian national anthem and didn’t prepare any other songs at all. China complied to save face for them. Can you imagine any other participating nations of doing the same?

I've probably done enough pop psychology on the PLA, but I'll give it one last go. I can still interpret this "arrogantly" as China going, "Sure, I'll do you a favour. No problem, little brother." It's of course more complicated than that, but we shouldn't imagine that the PLA is staffed by androids who do on-the-fly cost-benefit analyses in every decision they make. There's the rational, the professional, the cultural, the historical, and the emotional.

Even in its present form, the J-20 can simulate top of the line fifth generation fighters like the F-35 in some mission profiles, so at a minimum it could provide Russian pilots with familiarity with fifth gen tactics.

I can understand the J-20 needing the WS-15 to do F-22 kinematics, but the F-35 is hardly the most nimble plane ever made. What F-35 mission profile would the J-20 fail in simulating and what does it lack to succeed?

 

[Phead128]

China is like a 12 year old boy trying to date a supermodel by showing off daddy's gun collection of AK-47s, but accidentally shoots his own toes in the process.

There is little to zero benefit gained but significant risk of exposing sensitive military classified hardware information to a foreign power that isn't even a treaty ally!

It's almost like an infantile way of winning friends. You don't need to spread your ass-cheeks to get laid. China need a new way of getting laid without risking national security.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

China is like a 12 year old boy trying to date a supermodel by showing off daddy's gun collection of AK-47s, but accidentally shoots his own toes in the process.

There is little to zero benefit gained but significant risk of exposing sensitive military classified hardware information to a foreign power that isn't even a treaty ally!

It's almost like an infantile way of winning friends. You don't need to spread your ass-cheeks to get laid. China need a new way of getting laid without risking national security.

lolwut? What is this??

 

[Phead128]

lolwut? What is this??

Can China make friends without risking national security?

It's an infantile mindset to think risking your national security secrets can win you friends, especially when there is zero reciprocation in sight. Russia is laughing it's way to the bank while creating "J-20 Killers" stealth exports on the side for India and Vietnam.

 

[banjex]

^so off topic guys

You don't need to spread your ass-cheeks to get laid. China need a new way of getting laid without risking national security.

putting this in my dating app bio.

 

[Blitzo]

Be a little concerned but not too much. As more money flows into the PLA's (and China's in general) coffers and China's technology advances, it'll both take a more profligate attitude to money and spending, and lose the second-mover advantage of knowing what the next step is and how to go after it. There'll be the occasional bad decision here and boondoggle there, it's just the nature of the game. One just hopes these trends won't go to the extremes they've gone in other places.

Along with that, attitudes toward operational secrecy will relax as China goes from jealously guarding every advantage it has, no matter how measly, to flaunting its strength both to advertise its greatness and deter its foes. That's also natural and we hope it won't go to pathological extremes, as it's gone elsewhere.

Now, I stress that the most important thing here is that Russia has proved itself trustworthy enough in the eyes of China's leadership to be let this close, because without their blessing none of this would be happening. Whatever "clout" the PLA wants to show is a very secondary consideration.

You know exactly what I mean, we've conversed enough for you to understand my meaning.

My point, in context of what you wrote about envy and speculating that the PLA "wants to show off" is that such desires are detrimental, concerning, not useful and potentially dangerous, with little to no benefit.

Sure, such a desire, if expressed in a limited intent, if secondary or tertiary to other legitimate concerns, may not be "too damaging" sure.
But why should such desires be justified or defended in the first place? That kind of smugness, arrogance, and hubris is undesirable and is the exact kind of flawed thinking that has allowed leading nations in history to accidentally allow competing nations to catch up.

It is an unforced error in nature, and needs to be examined in that lens.



Frankly, even what you wrote in #2876 is overestimating the balance of capabilities as well. While the PLA has made significant strides in both industry and in commissioned capabilities, it is far from the all encompassing decisive superior to Russia, and there remains significant industries and capabilities where Russia will have a significant notable edge over China for the short to medium term.

And even if China did have the kind of superiority you described -- heck, even if China had the kind of military and technological superiority and dominance that the US had over the rest of the world in the immediate post cold war era -- that still would not justify or excuse the sort of hubris and arrogance that you described.


Be a bit less blase and be a bit more vigilant.