Chinese Economics Thread

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
If you follow YouTube economists, you get variations where the US inflation is going.

Inflation - > more inflation (like the '70s)
Inflation -> hyperinflation (Dr. Doom)
Inflation -> stagflation (inflation without growth)
Inflation -> deflation (the US is already structured for deflation before Covid).
Inflation -> severe deflation (depends on how bad you want to put it)
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
I saw an article that said China's stock market has taken a huge dive because of China's clampdown on tech companies so I just checked the market and it says it's at 3564. It's was around that before the Jack Ma thing.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
Growth in Q2 2020 when China's economy was still recovering from COVID-19 was 3.2%, so the compound two-year growth is 1.032*1.079 = 1.113, or 1.055^2 or 5.5% annually. That compares to .932*1.183 = 1.102 or 5% annually in Q1, so the average actually accelerated a bit.

If China wants to maintain 6% compound growth for 2019-2021 to match the pre-pandemic growth rate of 6% in H2 2019, then it would need to grow 7.2% in Q3.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Seem like continuing progress in recovery so eat your heart out the doom and gloom crowd. Data from bureau of statistic in this video

China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 12.7 percent year on year in the first half of 2021 as recovery continues to maintain steady momentum, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Thursday. The NBS on Thursday briefed the media on the national economy in the first half of 2021 in Beijing. "China's economy sustained a steady recovery with the production and demand picking up, employment and prices remaining stable, new driving forces thriving fast, quality and efficiency enhancing, market expectations improving and major macro indicators staying within reasonable range.

The national economy witnessed the steady and sound growth momentum further consolidated," said Liu Aihua, an NBS spokeswoman. "According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first half year was 53.2167 trillion yuan (about 8.2297 trillion U.S. dollars), a year-on-year increase of 12.7 percent at comparable prices, 5.6 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter; and the average two-year growth was 5.3 percent, 0.3 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter. By quarter, the year-on-year GDP growth for the first quarter was 18.3 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.0 percent; for the second quarter 7.9 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.5 percent.

The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of the second quarter was 1.3 percent," said Liu. Other major economic indicators showed continued improvements across the board, with industrial output rising 15.9 percent and retail sales up 23 percent year on year in the first half. The country's surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5 percent in June, 0.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

China's foreign trade hits a record high in the first half of 2021 | 2021年上半年中国外贸创历史新高​

China's foreign trade in the first half of the year posted the best performance in history, underpinned by the country's sustainable economic recovery and strong global demand, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Thursday. The country's foreign trade rose 27.1 percent year on year to 18.065 trillion yuan (about 2.79 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first six months of 2021, said NBS spokeswoman Liu Aihua at a press conference in Beijing.

The growth marks an increase of 22.8 percent from the pre-epidemic level in 2019. "In the first half year, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 18.0651 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.1 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 9.8493 trillion yuan, up by 28.1 percent year on year. The total value of imports was 8.2157 trillion yuan, up by 25.9 percent year on year. The trade balance was 1.6336 trillion yuan in surplus. The trade structure continued to improve," said Liu. In breakdown, the spokeswoman said, "In the first half year, the exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.2 percent of the total value of exports, up by 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year.

The imports and exports of general trade accounted for 61.9 percent of the total value of imports and exports, up by 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year. The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 47.8 percent of the total value of imports and exports, up by 2.8 percentage points over the same period last year." In June alone, China's imports and exports went up 22 percent year on year to 3.29 trillion yuan, marking an increase for the 13th month in a row. The total value of exports was 1.81 trillion yuan last month, up by 20.2 percent year on year. The total value of imports was 1.48 trillion yuan, up by 24.2 percent year on year.
 
Last edited:

KYli

Brigadier

j17wang

Senior Member
Registered Member
Growth in Q2 2020 when China's economy was still recovering from COVID-19 was 3.2%, so the compound two-year growth is 1.032*1.079 = 1.113, or 1.055^2 or 5.5% annually. That compares to .932*1.183 = 1.102 or 5% annually in Q1, so the average actually accelerated a bit.

If China wants to maintain 6% compound growth for 2019-2021 to match the pre-pandemic growth rate of 6% in H2 2019, then it would need to grow 7.2% in Q3.

There should be a more in depth discussion of what should be a reasonable GDP target for china in the 2020's. I personally believe its should be around ~5% for the remainder, starting around 5.5% going down to 4.5% by 2030.

Remember china is right now among the richest per capita of the middle income countries, and by 2022-2023 will become the "poorest of the rich". China also is largely urbanized, industrialized, and has a mature demographics base. I dont know of any high income country which has sustained a 5% growth in GDP (including Japan/Korea) once they reached a high income level.
 

AF-1

Junior Member
Registered Member
China can maintain high growth rate for quite long time, since urbanization level is still below 60%. Considering that other 40% still live in pretty poor condition, and level of urbanization of developed countries is more than 90%, so there are still several hundreds million people to switch to urban areas, have more income, start more spending... Also current urban population will keep increasing income and spending, so economy can maintain 5% growth long more time.
50k per capita at some point, with 1,5 billion people (estimate at that point) so you will have economy 4 times bigger than USA, double of USA+EU, bigger than rest of the world combined ;)
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
I don't know why you would ever want a lower growth rate. China's estimated GDP per capita in 2021 is $18,900 (PPP)/ $11,800 (nominal) whereas the US is $68,300. For comparison, during the late 1980s and early 1990s Japan's GDP per capita (nominal) was actually higher than the US. China still has a long way to go to match Japan. It should not rest on its laurels.
 
Top