Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

supercat

Colonel
A Chilean research team published a new paper about Sinovac on the New England Journal of Medicine:

Effectiveness of an Inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine in Chile​

...

Results

The study was conducted from February 2 through May 1, 2021, and the cohort included approximately 10.2 million persons. Among persons who were fully immunized, the adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 65.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 65.2 to 66.6) for the prevention of Covid-19 and 87.5% (95% CI, 86.7 to 88.2) for the prevention of hospitalization, 90.3% (95% CI, 89.1 to 91.4) for the prevention of ICU admission, and 86.3% (95% CI, 84.5 to 87.9) for the prevention of Covid-19–related death.

Conclusions
Our results suggest that the inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectively prevented Covid-19, including severe disease and death, a finding that is consistent with results of phase 2 trials of the vaccine. (Funded by Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo and others.)
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On the other hand, here is another report about Sinvac with a sensational title that does not really match the content:

Hundreds of Thai medical workers infected with COVID-19 despite Sinovac vaccinations​

...
Of the 677,348 medical personnel who received two doses of Sinovac, 618 became infected, health ministry data from April to July showed. A nurse has died and another medical worker is in critical condition.
...
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So out of 677,348 medical personnel who received 2 doses of Sinovac, only 0.0912% got breakthrough infection. Out of this, only 1 died and 1 admitted to ICU. The bias against Sinovac is getting ridiculous.

In other news, Vietnam is finally getting some Chinese vaccine (Sinopharm):

Vietnam licenses firm to import 5 mln doses of Sinopharm vaccine​

HANOI, July 9 (Reuters) - Vietnam's Ministry of Health has licensed a local company to import 5 million doses of China's Sinopharm COVID-19 vaccine, local media reported on Friday.

The reports did not say when the vaccines would arrive.
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SteelBird

Colonel
Looks like workers running from factories fearing Covid-19 is not unique to Cambodia. It also happens to Vietnam.

Many cities in southern Vietnam went into lockdown on 9-July with all citizens required to stay at home and only go out with proper reasons. Factories that need to continue operating will have to arrange accommodation for workers at sites. And this happens...
 

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
Looks like workers running from factories fearing Covid-19 is not unique to Cambodia. It also happens to Vietnam.

Many cities in southern Vietnam went into lockdown on 9-July with all citizens required to stay at home and only go out with proper reasons. Factories that need to continue operating will have to arrange accommodation for workers at sites. And this happens...

Unfortunately once India lost control of its COVID situation it's only a matter of time til the wave reaches SEA. India -> Burma -> Thailand -> rest of SEA.
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I do wonder what will happen if within half a year pretty much all of China is vaccinated. And then they open up the country eventually. And virus proliferates. Sure, the vaccine might prevent 60% of people from getting any symptoms. Or even prevent 90% of people to be hospitalized. But for a population of 1.4 billion, assuming no vaccine still lead to 10% of people getting hospitalized, it'd still mean 1% would get hospitalized. That's 14 million people. And if just 10% of those hospitalized die, vaccine or no vaccine, that's over one million deaths. Something like 10 million people die in China annually anyway. So would a million more be a significant development?

Unfortunately, the math is not that simple. You can't simply multiple 90% efficacy = 90% people alive, 10% dead. That's not what "vaccine effectiveness" means.

Vaccine effectiveness does not mean the "probability of infection", rather it's "individual's relative risk ratio, or relative risk reduction compared to unvaccinated."

Example: Pfizer's 63% efficacy against Delta-variant infection means "You (individual) have a 63% reduced risk of infection compared to unvaccinated."


Hypothetical example:

VaccinatedUnvaccinatedTotal
Infecteda=100b=6,000a+b=6,100
Not Infectedc=8,000d=90,000c+d=98,000
Totala+c=8,100b+d=96,000total: 104,100


1626059497091.png
1626059739947.png
ARV(Vax) = 100 / 8,100 = 0.01234

.ARV(Unvax) = 6,000/96,000 = 0.0625

Vaccine efficacy = (0.0625 - 0.0123) /0.0625 = 0.80 or 80% reduction in (individual) risk of infection, compared to unvaccinated individual.

Source:
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Last edited:

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Unfortunately, the math is not that simple. You can't simply multiple 90% efficacy = 90% people alive, 10% dead. That's not what "vaccine effectiveness" means.

Vaccine effectiveness does not mean the "probability of infection", rather it's "individual's relative risk ratio, or relative risk reduction compared to unvaccinated."

Example: Pfizer's 63% efficacy against Delta-variant infection means "You (individual) have a 63% reduced risk of infection compared to unvaccinated."


Hypothetical example:

VaccinatedUnvaccinatedTotal
Infecteda=100b=6,000a+b=6,100
Not Infectedc=8,000d=90,000c+d=98,000
Totala+c=8,100b+d=96,000total: 104,100


View attachment 74579
View attachment 74580
ARV(Vax) = 100 / 8,100 = 0.01234

.ARV(Unvax) = 6,000/96,000 = 0.0625

Vaccine efficacy = (0.0625 - 0.0123) /0.0625 = 0.80 or 80% reduction in (individual) risk of infection, compared to unvaccinated individual.

Source:
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In my example, there are 6,000% more infections (by total count) in unvaccinated group compared to vaccinated, but the vaccine efficacy is still only 80%.

So you can't use vaccine efficacy to estimate the total population deaths, since vaccine efficacy is an risk reduction ratio, not a probability in traditional sense.
 

solarz

Brigadier
In my example, there are 6,000% more infections (by total count) in unvaccinated group compared to vaccinated, but the vaccine efficacy is still only 80%.

So you can't use vaccine efficacy to estimate the total population deaths, since vaccine efficacy is an risk reduction ratio, not a probability in traditional sense.

Unfortunately, most people, including many who post on this forum, do not have a basic understanding of the subject.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
You have money invested in Moderna or Pfizer? What's with the religious fever on mRNA vaccines? It's tiresome
This is just because mRNA is a new vaccine technique that is more effective and more scalable than traditional techniques. mNRA also has other applications besides covid-19 vaccines. This is the next area of development in biotech that China should not miss. There are biotech companies in China that specialize in mRNA applications, and if they list their shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai, then you can buy their shares.

Even Chinese expert Zhongnan Shan has started on mRNA vaccines. We are talking about these people who are actually experts who know what they are doing.

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Last edited:

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well I'm pleased RT clear that up then!

FB_IMG_1625876574605.jpg

As more people around the globe are inoculated against Covid-19, scientists seem to be learning more about the side effects of the various vaccines.

Norwegian women in particular have been reporting an unusual side effect across social media after receiving the Pfizer jab.

The phenomenon was first reported on TikTok by a 17-year-old user called Emma, who claimed that after two weeks her breasts had grown by a full cup size.

The video went viral, with many women commenting that they had experienced a similar adjustment following the jab.

Medical professionals advised that it wasn’t a breast enlargement, but that around 10% of women who received the Pfizer vaccine would experience swollen lymph nodes under the arms, which would push the breasts forward and make them appear larger.

The Norwegian office of Pfizer claimed that there were no such side effects listed in the patents for the vaccine, though they did not discredit the link between the vaccine and the de facto enlargement.
 

KYli

Brigadier
Sinopharm is 84% effective in preventing deaths for people over 60 years old which is excellence.
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A contract of 170 millions doses of Sinopharm and 380 millions doses of Sinovac was signed with Covax. 110 millions would be made immediately available for participants of Covax facility.
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It is just relentless. But I do support mix and match to see if it helps to offer better protections.
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