Going by this logic, I can conclude that USA has 0 population, why? Because their political party share is currently well balanced at 50%, which means they neutralised each other. China don't need to win over their population, USA political system destroy itself. For every positive or negative policy the government make, it gets destroy or go through numerous argument before it sees the light, rinse and repeat every election cycle.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Actually It doesn't . Except the Point 2, rest of it is your made up theory.
US might cutoff Chinese brands but not Europeans since they sell much more of their own brands to China. If they cut China off then China will retaliate. The entire world is 7.8 billion people. US+EU+US vassals combined are less than 1 billion people. China still has a market of 6.8 billion people to play with. And this is the 6.8 billion that is growing fast in GDP. The rich countries are already stagnant and will grow even less when China starts taking their market share. Their only choice will be to give up on branded products and move to high tech components.
But here also China has already seen what will happen if they depend on the US vassals. So, China will develop its own components.
So, China will dominate its home market and out compete the west in the developing world full of 6 billion people. The west can dominate its own home market but it will be out competed by China in the rest of the world. With lower revenue and profit they will slowly lose in terms of tech. In the distant future, the west will be forced to open up its market since no viable product will exist in many market segments that will be only dominated by China.
After a period of stagnation and backwardness, West will be forced to open up its market. Thus, China will force open the western market just like the west did to China in 1900s. History will repeat itself.
Except China has never considered, nor will it ever consider, cutting off from the world supply chain (as evidenced by the current economic strategy of dual circulation). At the same time, even the most rabid American puppets like Japan and Australia continue to do business with China, and will continue to do so as long as China reciprocates. You make the false assumption that to defeat it China needs to surpass the entire so-called "American bloc" rather than just America, the linchpin, which by the way is already rotting from its very core. Your whole talk about "blocs" seems like a massive strawman.
See the problem here is you are still trying to look at the world through the old cold war mental model with blocs and so on.
In the new world we are about to enter you won't be able to so easily divide the world into 2-3 camps. That simple model worked for the Soviet and friends because they deliberate cut themselves off from the 'free world' due to their ideology. China on the other hand is integrated so deep into the world economy that complete decoupling is not possible, not even with the US who desperately want to.
Let's take Singapore for example. Singapore tend not to want to get too close to China, and they were all in on TPP and stirring up noise in SCS. But then as BRI got underway with the Mekong river countries they suddenly realised oh shit, that really annoying guy with crazy infrastructure building skills is at it again. And if they don't hitch their wagon onto that engine eventually the other SEA countries that signed up to BRI will have so much better infrastructure that Singapore will no longer be competitive. Thus you witness their change in tone in recent years and their new willingness to sign up to RCEP.
And that's the same in almost every country now in the world. The greatest engine of wealth creation ever seen in human history is interested in how your country can fit into the new globalised world. No matter now rich or poor your country is you surely have something in which you have an relative advantage in. If you like trade, you like money then come on board and we can do trade. Your internal politics, weather that's ethnic tension, or territory dispute with your neighbour or political instability is your own problem, China isn't interested. And all China ask in return is you treat China's internal politics with the same respect. China isn't interested in asking you to adapt Socialism with Chinese Characteristics - the name alone should be clear enough message that it's not intended to work for anyone else. Your destiny is in your own hands.
And so that's why you see countries without ideological barriers jump on-board so quickly, and that's why it's extremely difficult to form a bloc against China purely on ideological grounds - because who can get angry at money? Even Japan's Suga right now is paying lip service to Pompeo while counting down the day till RCEP's signing.
I don't think you understand that the US and China are going into a new Cold War. I don't like it, but Chinese nationalists here are the ones saying they want to "fight" with the US and contest with it, and that seeking better relations is "defeatism." Fine then. Don't listen to me. Fight with the US. But don't pretend that the US isn't going to take the gloves off in that case. They will go all out against China. I am already following conversations online between US historians who are planning to change how they teach Chinese history to students to emphasize the independence of places like "East Turkestan." Expect a massive increase in CIA support for separatists in Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, TW, and anywhere else they can think of. The US is going to use every lever of its power to hurt China, and as the sole superpower, the US has a lot of levers.
It doesn't matter if China, like the Soviet Union "deliberately cut themselves off" from the free world "due to ideology." China will be forced to cut itself off from the world if the New Cold War really happens. The US can do more than you think. It will go to a country, and say: It's us or them. If you trade with them, then don't trade with us. We will sanction you. They won't publicly threaten this, like China's "wolf warrior" diplomats, but they will make it clear behind closed doors. They won't have to do with for ALL trade. They'll probably allow basic trade that doesn't threaten them. But any Chinese brand, any Chinese industry, or Chinese technology, that becomes really successful, has a very high profit margin, or threatens to surpass the US, will be blocked, and cut off.
So your example of Singapore won't matter. That was in the past. Pompeo is just the beginning. Eventually countries like Singapore won't be able to have it both ways. The US will say: Listen to us or else. Then they will have to choose: If they choose the US, they are in the US Bloc. If they choose China, they are in the Chinese Bloc. The world will then be divided into Blocs, and if China's Bloc:
1. Has lower population
2. Has smaller economy
3. Has less advanced technology
4. Has weaker military
Then eventually it will fall further and further behind just like the Soviets did, until it is forced to capitulate.
So yes, the world is going to divide into blocs. China integrated into the world economy because the US allowed it to happen, there was no New Cold War. But these last few years, things have changed. It won't happen all at once, it will be slow and methodical. But the US government will thoroughly implement this containment strategy to cut China off from its Bloc. Supply chains, societal exchanges, academic cooperation, etc. everything will be targeted. They will all start to split. Huawei is the canary in the coalmine. Look at just how a year ago the whole EU was using Huawei, now they aren't. EU is now declaring China a systemic competitor. This shows they will move into the US Bloc. It shows when push comes to shove, they will side with the US not China.
Don't be naive. This is the harsh reality. You don't have to contest with the US (that's my opinion-- and in my view the Chinese government doesn't want to, really). But if you want to contest with the US, it is contest, and you gotta be prepared for it.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Asean will be the biggest Chinese trade partner bar none in the future The world is returning to its "normalcy" the last 200 year where the world is dominated by the west is an aberration Up until 1800 China is the dominant political, cultural and economical hegemon of Asia Don't ever forget about it. I am literally is the product of this trade My ancestor sail from Fujian province in late 19 century to trade and seek opportunity in SEA and so many of his country men million literally But they don't rob other people land instead they intermingle and even intermarried and live peacefully because it is not in Chinese DNA to colonize people I think SEA countries appreciate that.
China and ASEAN enjoy an economic tie that U.S. can't buy
Bobby Naderi
A large container ship approaches the port fully loaded with containers and cargo. /Getty Images
Editor's note: Bobby Naderi is a journalist, a guest contributor in print, radio and television, a documentary filmmaker and a member of the Writers Guild of Great Britain. The article reflects the author's opinion and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
China has successfully built up priceless relations characterized by mutual respect and common values with the Southeast Asian countries. It is due to its rich, modern and multilateral foreign policy of peace, commerce, and generosity that many nations are predictably – and justifiably – not keen to side with the Trump administration's theatrics, ideological clash and great power struggle with China.
Trade between China and the countries of Southeast Asia has a long tradition, and the United States cannot find it on sale. It is an integral part of the world trading system.
Implicit in the worldview is that China has made no law abridging the freedom of manufacturing and trade, nor has it ever tried to burn bridges or to close the door of well-being upon its established trading partners.
That's why Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam retain long-standing economic, diplomatic, and cultural relations with China. Their markets rely on Chinese investment and tourism, and they continue to flourish with China. They welcome China's peaceful rise and help to re-establish international rules and regulations.
These economies are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The regional organization provides a framework for their economic, political, military, educational and cultural integration with China. This includes ASEAN's responses to trading issues and international concerns based on the principles of sovereignty and consensus-based decision-making.
Thanks to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as well as the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) and a growing consumer demand that incorporate new technology and smart automation, the volume of trade in 2019 surpassed $600 billion, according to China's Ministry of Commerce.
Meanwhile, export manufacturing and FDI (foreign direct investment) also helped to create wider prosperity and a suitable environment for high-growth tech startups throughout the region.
China and ASEAN enjoy an economic tie that U.S. can't buy
Bobby Naderi
A large container ship approaches the port fully loaded with containers and cargo. /Getty Images
Editor's note: Bobby Naderi is a journalist, a guest contributor in print, radio and television, a documentary filmmaker and a member of the Writers Guild of Great Britain. The article reflects the author's opinion and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
China has successfully built up priceless relations characterized by mutual respect and common values with the Southeast Asian countries. It is due to its rich, modern and multilateral foreign policy of peace, commerce, and generosity that many nations are predictably – and justifiably – not keen to side with the Trump administration's theatrics, ideological clash and great power struggle with China.
Trade between China and the countries of Southeast Asia has a long tradition, and the United States cannot find it on sale. It is an integral part of the world trading system.
Implicit in the worldview is that China has made no law abridging the freedom of manufacturing and trade, nor has it ever tried to burn bridges or to close the door of well-being upon its established trading partners.
That's why Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam retain long-standing economic, diplomatic, and cultural relations with China. Their markets rely on Chinese investment and tourism, and they continue to flourish with China. They welcome China's peaceful rise and help to re-establish international rules and regulations.
These economies are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The regional organization provides a framework for their economic, political, military, educational and cultural integration with China. This includes ASEAN's responses to trading issues and international concerns based on the principles of sovereignty and consensus-based decision-making.
Thanks to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as well as the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) and a growing consumer demand that incorporate new technology and smart automation, the volume of trade in 2019 surpassed $600 billion, according to China's Ministry of Commerce.
Meanwhile, export manufacturing and FDI (foreign direct investment) also helped to create wider prosperity and a suitable environment for high-growth tech startups throughout the region.
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ASEAN is actually already China's biggest trading partner, aided by US trade war.
I believe the current ranking goes:
1. ASEAN
2. EU
3. US
4. Japan
Since RCEP includes ASEAN+5 (China, Japan, South Korea, Australia New Zealand) you can already see very clearly where international trade is headed.
I believe the current ranking goes:
1. ASEAN
2. EU
3. US
4. Japan
Since RCEP includes ASEAN+5 (China, Japan, South Korea, Australia New Zealand) you can already see very clearly where international trade is headed.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Trying to contain China is like trying to stop the sun from rising It just not possible China rise is not due to the West generosity but to benefit their own pocket Take example WTO they benefit enormously from sourcing their product manufacturing from China reaping profit in the billion while paying Chinese pittance. But China aslo benefit learning modern manufacturing and quality control, marketing , product design Slowly they beat the west at their own game . The US does not grant favor to China by allowing her to join WTO Because China outside WTO is even more problematic No IP protection at all, China set their own rule etc That is why they admit China to WTO But now that China is winning and they cannot change the WTO to suit their interest WTO is the black sheep of western world. And they blame WTO for all the ill of their own making like insufficient investment and training forward and progressive planning, more equitable resources devoted to economy instead of military etc.
So good luck trying to contain china
来自
【中芯国际首款基于“N+1”工艺芯片流片成功
![[中国赞]](https://img.t.sinajs.cn/t4/appstyle/expression/ext/normal/6d/2018new_zhongguozan_org.png "[中国赞]")
】近日，中国领先的一站式IP和定制芯片领军企业――芯动科技发布消息称，该公司已完成全球首个基于中芯国际FinFETN+1先进工艺的芯片流片和测试，所有IP全自主国产，功能一次测试通过，为国产半导体生态链再立新功。
中芯国际是中国内地规模最大、技术最先进的集成电路芯片制造企业。“N+1”是中芯国际对其第二代先进工艺的代号，其与现有的14nm工艺相比，性能提升了20%，功耗降低了57%，逻辑面积缩小了63%，SoC面积减少了55%，也被称为“国产版”的7nm芯片技术。（珠海特区报）
Today at 10:46 from Weibo
[SMIC’s first chip based on "N+1" technology has been successfully taped out [中国赞]]
Recently, China’s leading one-stop IP and custom chip leader, Innosilicon announced that the company has completed first chip tape-out and test based on SMIC’s FinFET N+1 advanced technology. All IP is made in-house, and its functions have passed the first test, making new contributions to the domestic semiconductor ecosystem.
SMIC is the largest and most technologically advanced integrated circuit chip manufacturer in Mainland China. "N+1" is SMIC’s code name for its second-generation advanced process. Compared with the existing 14nm process, performance increased by 20%, power consumption is reduced by 57%, logical area is reduced by 63%, SoC area is reduced by 55%, also known as the "domestic version" of 7nm chip technology. (Zhuhai Special Zone News)
So good luck trying to contain china
来自
【中芯国际首款基于“N+1”工艺芯片流片成功
】近日，中国领先的一站式IP和定制芯片领军企业――芯动科技发布消息称，该公司已完成全球首个基于中芯国际FinFETN+1先进工艺的芯片流片和测试，所有IP全自主国产，功能一次测试通过，为国产半导体生态链再立新功。
中芯国际是中国内地规模最大、技术最先进的集成电路芯片制造企业。“N+1”是中芯国际对其第二代先进工艺的代号，其与现有的14nm工艺相比，性能提升了20%，功耗降低了57%，逻辑面积缩小了63%，SoC面积减少了55%，也被称为“国产版”的7nm芯片技术。（珠海特区报）
Today at 10:46 from Weibo
[SMIC’s first chip based on "N+1" technology has been successfully taped out [中国赞]]
Recently, China’s leading one-stop IP and custom chip leader, Innosilicon announced that the company has completed first chip tape-out and test based on SMIC’s FinFET N+1 advanced technology. All IP is made in-house, and its functions have passed the first test, making new contributions to the domestic semiconductor ecosystem.
SMIC is the largest and most technologically advanced integrated circuit chip manufacturer in Mainland China. "N+1" is SMIC’s code name for its second-generation advanced process. Compared with the existing 14nm process, performance increased by 20%, power consumption is reduced by 57%, logical area is reduced by 63%, SoC area is reduced by 55%, also known as the "domestic version" of 7nm chip technology. (Zhuhai Special Zone News)
Last edited:
Hi Hendrik_2000,Asean will be the biggest Chinese trade partner bar none in the future The world is returning to its "normalcy" the last 200 year where the world is dominated by the west is an aberration Up until 1800 China is the dominant political, cultural and economical hegemon of Asia Don't ever forget about it. I am literally is the product of this trade My ancestor sail from Fujian province in late 19 century to trade and seek opportunity in SEA and so many of his country men million literally But they don't rob other people land instead they intermingle and even intermarried and live peacefully because it is not in Chinese DNA to colonize people I think SEA countries appreciate that.
China and ASEAN enjoy an economic tie that U.S. can't buy
Bobby Naderi
A large container ship approaches the port fully loaded with containers and cargo. /Getty Images
Editor's note: Bobby Naderi is a journalist, a guest contributor in print, radio and television, a documentary filmmaker and a member of the Writers Guild of Great Britain. The article reflects the author's opinion and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
China has successfully built up priceless relations characterized by mutual respect and common values with the Southeast Asian countries. It is due to its rich, modern and multilateral foreign policy of peace, commerce, and generosity that many nations are predictably – and justifiably – not keen to side with the Trump administration's theatrics, ideological clash and great power struggle with China.
Trade between China and the countries of Southeast Asia has a long tradition, and the United States cannot find it on sale. It is an integral part of the world trading system.
Implicit in the worldview is that China has made no law abridging the freedom of manufacturing and trade, nor has it ever tried to burn bridges or to close the door of well-being upon its established trading partners.
That's why Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam retain long-standing economic, diplomatic, and cultural relations with China. Their markets rely on Chinese investment and tourism, and they continue to flourish with China. They welcome China's peaceful rise and help to re-establish international rules and regulations.
These economies are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The regional organization provides a framework for their economic, political, military, educational and cultural integration with China. This includes ASEAN's responses to trading issues and international concerns based on the principles of sovereignty and consensus-based decision-making.
Thanks to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as well as the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) and a growing consumer demand that incorporate new technology and smart automation, the volume of trade in 2019 surpassed $600 billion, according to China's Ministry of Commerce.
Meanwhile, export manufacturing and FDI (foreign direct investment) also helped to create wider prosperity and a suitable environment for high-growth tech startups throughout the region.
Implicit in the worldview is that China has made no law abridging the freedom of manufacturing and trade, nor has it ever tried to burn bridges or to close the door of well-being upon its established trading partners.
That is why RCEP is about to be realized and TTP is not.