Chinese Economics Thread

[SPOOPYSKELETON]

If so, then why don't your own country who ever that is recognised it so. Don't come here telling us so. Your first call should be to tell your government to do so. I wonder what they will say do you?

Just because you said so, doesn't make it so!

Because maintaining the One China principle is what is required to do business with China. For most of this century, trade with China was prioritized.

Now, under the Trump regime, trade is no longer so important. And with that, the necessity of the One China principle is also fading.

You may actually get a formal recognition of Taiwanese independence soon if the Trump regime is aggressive enough. And do not confuse aggression with desperation.

The successful sanctions against Huawei have only emboldened the Trump regime and convinced them they have the upper hand. This is the reality which China must contend with.

 

[Equation]

Because maintaining the One China principle is what is required to do business with China. For most of this century, trade with China was prioritized.

Now, under the Trump regime, trade is no longer so important. And with that, the necessity of the One China principle is also fading.

Yeah tell that to Apple and many other US companies in China and lets see how fast the stock market falls. The Trump regime are desperate and gasping for air due to their losing face and losing the election and popularity not only domestically but internationally as well. And don't get me started with China cutting off some processed rare earth minerals to the US.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Because maintaining the One China principle is what is required to do business with China. For most of this century, trade with China was prioritized.

Now, under the Trump regime, trade is no longer so important. And with that, the necessity of the One China principle is also fading.

You may actually get a formal recognition of Taiwanese independence soon if the Trump regime is aggressive enough. And do not confuse aggression with desperation.

The successful sanctions against Huawei have only emboldened the Trump regime and convinced them they have the upper hand. This is the reality which China must contend with.

Well that's a lot of noise without actually answer my question. Talk about mind gymnastics, you'll get a gold medal for yours. I said if you could get your government and the majority in the world to recognise Taiwan as a sovereign country, with embassies, etc then I'll concede Taiwan is a sovereign country. If not then Taiwan is not, under the defination, a sovereign country.

Then you going about how maintainning the one China principle because of trade, (as if it was China's fault you want to do trade with China, Gee), I note you said this century! Then you moved on to say Trump might, just might moved on to recognise Taiwan if he's aggressive enough.

But none of this answer the question, which was where in the world apart from a dozen Pacific islanders, recognised Taiwan as a sovereign country?

You can't answer that, instead all I get is if and buts!

 

[SPOOPYSKELETON]

Yeah tell that to Apple and many other US companies in China and lets see how fast the stock market falls. The Trump regime are desperate and gasping for air due to their losing face and losing the election and popularity not only domestically but internationally as well. And don't get me started with China cutting off some processed rare earth minerals to the US.

Well, that is the issue. China could credibly retaliate by shutting down Apple (my preference is Boeing, since Tim Cook seems loyal to China), but they have not done so yet. It is America that doesn't care about the economic damage their corporations will sustain. That gives America greater freedom of action right now, long term consequences be damned.

Rare earths are a less serious threat now, since its much easier to start rare earths production, and China no longer has a monopoly on that material.

As for desperation, the Trump regime understands itself to be in the drivers seat in the ongoing China-US tech battle. China's lack of a response to Huawei sanctions has convinced the Americans that China is weak. The hawks in the administration see a golden opportunity.

 

[SPOOPYSKELETON]

But none of this answer the question, which was where in the world apart from a dozen Pacific islanders, recognised Taiwan as a sovereign country?

You can't answer that, instead all I get is if and buts!

De Jure Taiwanese independence is a factor of US-China relationships, since these two are the only countries that matter on this issue. The breakdown of the US-China relationship will likely see a change in the status of Taiwan in the near future. Whether a dozen nobodies recognize Taiwan now is not a real concern of mine or anyones, since we all know countries like Somalialand won't be making any important decisions soon. That is all I am going to say on this matter.

As for de-facto independence, which is what we are really concerned about, Taiwan is already like this. Weapons sales, economic policy, none of this is controlled by Beijing. And ultimately, what we are interested here is gaining real control over TSMC, over the Taiwan strait.

 

[ougoah]

Because maintaining the One China principle is what is required to do business with China. For most of this century, trade with China was prioritized.

But that's exactly their point. This isn't a question of politics anymore. It's about every nation's desire for prosperity so the recognition of Taiwan hangs in the balance. If Taiwan was the nation that offers the world more, then naturally it would be the one recognised as true China by all. But it isn't and doesn't. Everything else beyond this is moot. The US has indirectly threatened to recognise Taiwan. It hasn't done that and probably won't. I don't want to explain why but have a think without bias and you may realise.

The US cannot perform moral posturing while they have their cake and eat it too. It wants to have cheap labour from China for its corporations to continue profiting from while it makes x% of its income from China (without compromise), while it prevents Chinese from saving up and developing their own industries, while it tries to stop Chinese companies from finding global success, while it attacks Chinese sovereignty, while it accuses China of crimes it hasn't been proven of, while it recognises Taiwan. It's really asking for the impossible and it probably understands well enough.

Now, under the Trump regime, trade is no longer so important. And with that, the necessity of the One China principle is also fading.

Trade remains important. You're already wrong. It's the main issue for them. I think you mean trade with China is less important because they seem to be willing to take a lot of damage to seek whatever levels of decoupling is realistically possible. Reasons for seeking decoupling you can speculate yourself. Unfortunately the price has proven to be quite a lot more expensive that Trump's team imagined AND their attempts at decoupling have till this date completely failed. US China trade is still not much lower than it was in the 2010s. Their deficit has been reduced very slightly and it's cost their businesses in tax and in lost profits.

You may actually get a formal recognition of Taiwanese independence soon if the Trump regime is aggressive enough. And do not confuse aggression with desperation.

The successful sanctions against Huawei have only emboldened the Trump regime and convinced them they have the upper hand. This is the reality which China must contend with.

Their aggression is sort of desperation when you look at the macro picture. It's not Trump on a personal vendetta, it's the faceless "US deep state" that directs these strategic decisions to begin taking on China now before China becomes impossible to defeat.

Huawei sanctions haven't been successful if you look at Huawei's bottom line. Granted that may change in some months/years but everythings still in the air. Huawei's OS can eventually become successful. It's all there and the technical problems are easy, overcoming the propaganda and the barriers from entering markets is harder. Sanctions are successful in preventing Huawei from accessing certain Taiwanese chips sure. But that's not a measure of success. That's just the sanction itself. Is it/ will it be successful in preventing Huawei from making and selling smartphones in future? That's the measure of success.

Huawei does not need every 5G market on the planet, at worst it loses western european markets but still has the rest. That's already doing pretty well but sure it could have been better if not for US efforts. Huawei, SMIC, SMEE, and many other less visible players may and probably will make Trump's restriction on the latest and greatest lithography equipment a non-issue. We're arguing over the remaining few percentage points. All of this is like China's won and gone 95% of the way and Trump's trying desperately to delay them from overcoming that last stretch. All it needs is time and strategy shifts and there are plenty of solutions that have already been thought of and discussed even in this little forum.

They have the upper hand only in global propaganda, brainwashing, cashing in on all that for moral posturing, and a military advantage which they are concerned about using because China does not seem to be an Iran or North Korea... which are already nations they leave alone when it comes to kinetic war. China is now like a Soviet Union except with better industry and vastly superior economy and more importantly, better management. What do they attack? Economy and politics.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Well, that is the issue. China could credibly retaliate by shutting down Apple (my preference is Boeing, since Tim Cook seems loyal to China), but they have not done so yet. It is America that doesn't care about the economic damage their corporations will sustain. That gives America greater freedom of action right now, long term consequences be damned.

Rare earths are a less serious threat now, since its much easier to start rare earths production, and China no longer has a monopoly on that material.

As for desperation, the Trump regime understands itself to be in the drivers seat in the ongoing China-US tech battle. China's lack of a response to Huawei sanctions has convinced the Americans that China is weak. The hawks in the administration see a golden opportunity.

Where do you get that ideal US don't care about the damage done to their corporations? Trump himself boasted how much he had spent in propping up his farmers. How much he has done for corporate America. Gee talk about selective reasoning.

And your understanding of rare earth is lacking. China never had monopoly of rare earth. It is on the processes and refining that China had an edge. To start up those process is going to cost, is it possible, sure. It's how long and how much, and what's the damage in the mean time that should be your question.

So US got the edge on this trade war, ok let's take that for argument sake. So are you saying China should just give in?

 

[Gatekeeper]

De Jure Taiwanese independence is a factor of US-China relationships, since these two are the only countries that matter on this issue. The breakdown of the US-China relationship will likely see a change in the status of Taiwan in the near future. Whether a dozen nobodies recognize Taiwan now is not a real concern of mine or anyones, since we all know countries like Somalialand won't be making any important decisions soon. That is all I am going to say on this matter.

As for de-facto independence, which is what we are really concerned about, Taiwan is already like this. Weapons sales, economic policy, none of this is controlled by Beijing. And ultimately, what we are interested here is gaining real control over TSMC, over the Taiwan strait.

So changing to defacto independence! Well I don't have an issue with that. It is what it is. You and I don't have to like it or dislike it. Yes I agree that Taiwan is defacto independent...... for now!

But that's different to being a sovereign country! Which was where your original assertion comes from! And my original issue with that assertion!

 

[Deino]

Guys ... take this as a warning and esp. @SPOOPYSKELETON !

NO POLITICS and no name-calling and other provocations.

 

[ougoah]

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