Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

KYli

Brigadier
Life expectency in China is 76 years, UK is 81 .

So, the UK tree has more weight on the upper end of ages than the Chinese.


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Still , no explanation between the discrepancy in Chinese data and all other nations data regards of hospital and ICU admissions.

Any idea other from falsified data ?
Anlsvrthng accused China of falsified data which I think it is totally justified accusation. At the same time, if Chinese members accuse other countries of falsified data, then it should also be allowed.

"80% of cases are mild, about 14% are severe, and about 6% become critically ill." That's Chinese data. So according to Chinese data, at least 6% of patients require ICU.

For comparison, NYC at the moment 4.56% of patients require ICU and if you included the 50 deaths which would increase it to 5.2%. So I think as long as patients have received good care(Have enough nurses and doctors) and actions are taken early enough. Many of them might not require ICU. But if the hospitals are overwhelmed like Wuhan and Italy, it could mean many patients would end up needing ICU. And many of them would not survive. The mortality rate in Wuhan is like 5.8% but the mortality outside of Hubei is around 1%.

As of 6 p.m. Saturday, coronavirus sickened 2,484 people in Brooklyn, 2,254 people in Queens, 1,868 in Manhattan, 1,071 in the Bronx and 437 in Staten Island, the mayor’s office said. 8,115 people in total. At least 1,450 people were hospitalized, including 370 people in intensive care units.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
Someone made a really great analogy about the virus in an article that I read (I cannot remember the source now), which is that the numbers we are seeing being reported is like the stars we see at night. The light from those stars have taken so long to reach us, than many of the stars we can see in the sky may have died long ago.

Similarly, the test confirmed numbers we see being reported are a time delayed imperfect snapshots of the past.

That is something I think a lot of people just do not grasp. They see reports in the news of massed gatherings, and because they don’t see huge spikes in reported new cases a few days or even a week later, they start to dismiss the seriousness of the situation and start to think public gatherings are safe.

The risk is particularly grave for Australians, because while the hot weather might be helping them now, the seasons are change and soon they will be heading into their autumn and winter seasons. If they take the wrong lessons about covid19 into their traditional flu season, it could get very bad very quickly for them.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
"Friend is the another body with the same soul" China help Greece
"We believe in solidarity!" A plane carrying 18 tonnes of medical supplies donated by the Chinese government as well as Chinese enterprises and organizations arrives in Athens.
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Meanwhile in Czech republic help also arrive even after insult and slight by Praque mayor. Jura you hear even after you throw us sch##4e we still send you jade
A Chinese cargo plane landed in the Czech Republic late on Saturday loaded with medical supplies. Just over 1,000 cases have been confirmed in the Czech Republic so far. The plane flew from the city of Shenzhen in south China with 117 tons of equipment. It includes 2 million respirators, 5 million face masks, 80,000 protective goggles, 120,000 protective suits and tens of thousands of test kits. Two more flights are planned this month, one to the Czech Republic and one to neighboring Slovakia. Subscribe to us on YouTube:
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While in Serbia Vucic give the highest honor to China relief by being in airport to personally welcome the Chinese team and He kissed Chinese flag!
 
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Anlsvrthng accused China of falsified data which I think it is totally justified accusation. At the same time, if Chinese members accuse other countries of falsified data, then it should also be allowed.

Not me .

In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
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This is the group of infectious disease expert who made the UK strategy, first based on the Chinese data, afterwards (since this week Monday) based on the Italian data.

And they capable to correct the data by age cohorts, they are not stupid.

All other country created the coping strategy up to the outbreak in Italy based on the Chinese data.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Most countries are going through a different stage of outbreak from China. Italy, UK and the US for example are still experiencing severe under-testing, Italy also goes through very severe hospital overload that China was able to prevent. There is a plethora or reasons why the data would be different. It would surprise me if they are not.
There is good 200 years worth of statistical tool available to compensate all of this kind of problem.

Best part of them was developed during the 2nd WW to analyse the wartime manufacturing capacity of the enemy countries , with good accuracy and with way less data.
 

KYli

Brigadier
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This is the group of infectious disease expert who made the UK strategy, first based on the Chinese data, afterwards (since this week Monday) based on the Italian data.

And they capable to correct the data by age cohorts, they are not stupid.

All other country created the coping strategy up to the outbreak in Italy based on the Chinese data.

Not sure what you are trying to say here. Can you pinpoint what you believe is falsified? Otherwise, it is difficult for me to reply to your accusation.

From the look of it, UK is preparing for the worst case scenarios. It is what happened when your healthcare system no longer is able to cope with the influx of patients. That has happened in Wuhan in the early days and the mortality rate is 5.8% even with 45000 medical professionals from other provinces come to aid Hubei. On the contrary, South Korea mortality rate is around 1% and have similar data China has so you want to accuse South Korea for falsified data also. I just don't understand what you are implying here.
 
... Jura you hear even after you throw us sch##4e we still send you jade
...
谢谢

P12.jpg
 
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