Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

solarz

Brigadier
It seems like even here, a lot of fellow posters are misunderstanding the epidemic statistics.

Confirmed Infections:
This is the number of people who got tested positive for the virus. It does NOT mean the actual number of infection cases. I see a lot of people fixating on this number to try to extrapolate a trend. This number does not show the actual spread of the disease. It just shows how quicky the Chinese government has been able to test people for the virus!

Wuhan now has an app that allows people to report their symptoms from home, and someone will come to their home to do a test if it is warranted. This explains the recent large expansion of this number.

Note that this number means two different things inside and outside Wuhan (possibly Hubei). Inside, this number is capped by the amount of tests that can be carried out. This means any growth is necessarily linear. Outside, this number is capped by the number of actual cases severe enough to warrant diagnostic tests, because the number of cases are still very low.

(to be continued)
 

KYli

Brigadier
thanks for sharing, just I wonder how does this story fare against
#406 manqiangrexue, Friday at 1:12 AM

It has been explained that publication data is based upon a retrospective analysis of 425 confirmed cases (including 15 medical staff) reported as of January 23, 2020. All cases have been announced to the society before the paper was written. No contradiction for the publication and the article. If you don't know what a retrospective analysis means, you can use a dictionary to find out.
 
It has been explained that publication data is ...
what "publication" please

(can't see any inside KYli, 53 minutes ago
December 26 is the first time someone realized that something is wrong. So rumors they tried to conceal anything before December 26 are just rumors. I know a lot of rumors claiming they know about this disease in late Nov or early Dec so this article should clear the confusion. Not to say that China CDC or City government or the provincial government haven't done a poor job after 1/1.

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7 similar patients 4 from South China Seafood Market

She judged "this must be a problem"


On the morning of December 26, 2019, a pair of old couples in the neighborhood of the hospital saw a fever and cough. At that time, the two went to the hospital to see the doctor. The CT scan of the chest was completely compatible with other viral pneumonia. Different changes. Zhang Jixian asked the old couple to call their son for an examination. The son did not have any symptoms, but the CT showed that his lungs had the same performance.


On this day, a merchant from the South China Seafood Market also had the same fever, cough, and the same lung performance. "Generally speaking, when a family visits a doctor, there will only be one patient, and not three people will get the same disease at the same time, unless it is an infectious disease." Zhang Jixian did these patients with influenza A, influenza B, syncytial virus, and adenovirus. , Rhinovirus, chlamydia, mycoplasma and other influenza-related tests, all patients were negative, thereby ruling out the flu.


The suspicion in Zhang Jixian's head was getting bigger and bigger. On December 27, she reported the situation of these four people to the business director Xia Wenguang, the hospital's hospital sense office and the medical department, and the hospital immediately reported it to the Jianghan CDC.


On December 28 and 29, the outpatient clinic successively treated 3 patients who also came from the South China Seafood Market, and now there are 7 same patients.

"This is a disease we have never seen before. There are also 4 patients from the South China Seafood Market. There must be a problem." Zhang Jixian judged that the 7 patients had the same symptoms as the lungs, but there was a difference in severity. Zhang Jixian keenly realized that the situation was wrong, and immediately reported to the hospital, and suggested that the hospital hold a multi-department consultation.


At 1 pm on December 29th, Xia Wenguang, the deputy dean in charge of the hospital, convened ten experts from the Department of Respiratory Medicine, Hospital Sense Office, Cardiovascular, ICU, Radiology, Pharmacy, Clinical Examination, Infection, and Medical Department. After discussing them one by one, the imaging is special, the systemic symptoms are obvious, and the laboratory tests have changes in muscle enzymes and liver enzymes. Experts agree that this situation is indeed abnormal and should be paid great attention. After asking about two other patients with similar medical history, they went to Tongji Hospital and Xiehe Hospital for treatment. After leaving the address in the South China Seafood Market, Vice President Xia Wenguang immediately decided to report directly to the disease control department of the provincial and municipal health and health committees.

On Sunday, December 29, the CDCs of the provincial and municipal health and health committees responded quickly after receiving the report, instructing the Wuhan CDC, Jinyintan Hospital, and Jianghan District CDC to go to the hospital to begin an epidemiological investigation.


In the evening, Huang Chaolin, the vice president of Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital and Wu Wenjuan, the director of the infectious disease treatment hospital in Wuhan, came to the Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine Hospital of Hubei Province. They inspected the seven patients one by one and picked up six patients. Three sons with severe illness and three with severe illness. The son of the family of three resolutely refused to go to Jinyintan Hospital and stayed at Zhang Jixian to continue treatment. He was discharged on January 7 this year.


Zhang Jixian firmly stated in an interview that the sooner the epidemic is discovered, the better it will be controlled. "We feel we are doing it right now!"


On February 1, reporters from various sources verified that the sources of all parties confirmed that it was the earliest reported epidemic situation of the Provincial Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, and evaluated that the government had gained time for early monitoring of the epidemic.

长江日报-长江网2月2日讯(记者田巧萍)
她很忙,接受采访的时间一拖再拖,只是叫记者“等通知”。
7个相似病人4个来自华南海鲜市场

她判断“这肯定有问题”


2019年12月26日上午,医院附近小区的一对老两口因发烧、咳嗽看病,当时两人是自己走到医院来看病的,拍出来的胸部CT片,却呈现出与其他病毒性肺炎完全不同的改变。张继先让老两口叫来他们的儿子做检查,儿子没有任何症状,但CT一照,肺上也有那种表现了。

这一天,还来了一位华南海鲜市场的商户,一样的发烧、咳嗽,一样的肺部表现。“一般来说,一家人来看病,只会有一个病人,不会三人同时得一样的病,除非是传染病。”张继先给这些病人做了甲流、乙流、合胞病毒、腺病毒、鼻病毒、衣原体、支原体等与流感相关的检查,病人全部呈阴性,从而排除了流感。

张继先头脑中的疑团越来越大,12月27日,她把这四个人的情况向业务院长夏文广、医院院感办和医务部作了汇报,医院立即上报给江汉区疾控中心。

12月28日、29日两天,门诊又陆陆续续收治了3位同样来自华南海鲜市场的病人,这一下就有7个一样的病人了。

“这是我们从来没有见到过的病,同样来自华南海鲜市场的有4个病人了,这肯定有问题。”张继先判断,7个病人,症状和肺部表现一致,只是轻重有区别。张继先敏锐地意识到情况不对,立即又向医院进行了报告,并建议医院召开多部门会诊。

12月29日下午1时,分管副院长夏文广召集了呼吸科、院感办、心血管、ICU、放射、药学、临床检验、感染、医务部的十名专家,大家对这7个病例进行了逐一讨论,影像学特殊,全身症状明显,实验室检查肌酶、肝酶都有变化,专家们一致认为,这种情况确实不正常,要引起高度重视。追问到还有两例类似病史患者,到同济医院、协和医院去治疗,留下来的地址也是华南海鲜市场后,夏文广副院长立即决定:直接向省、市卫健委疾控处报告。

12月29日是星期天,省、市卫健委疾控处接到报告后快速反应,指示武汉市疾控中心、金银潭医院和江汉区疾控中心前往医院,开始流行病学调查。

傍晚,武汉市传染病定点收治医院——武汉市金银潭医院业务副院长黄朝林和ICU主任吴文娟来到湖北省中西医结合医院,逐一查看了这7个病人,接走了6位病人,其中轻症三位、重症三位,那一家三口的儿子坚决不去金银潭医院,留在张继先这里继续治疗,今年元月7日病愈出院。

张继先接受采访时坚定地说,疫情发现越早越有利于控制。“我们现在感觉自己做对了!”

2月1日,记者多方求证,各方信源均证实是省中西医结合医院最早上报疫情,并评价给政府及早监测疫情争取了时间。
which is the post I referred to)
 

shanlung

Junior Member
Registered Member
What Bannon and Wilber Ross were saying about this coronavirus event in China reveal much about the mentality and morality in the US government.


It is Bannon and that kind of people I referred to as 'Muricans. As against Americans who are not of that kind of mindset.

I had said before.

"I do have many American friends with whom I have great respect for their decency and honesty.

There too, are Americans I know who are not in that category. Willing to nuke China if China do not buy enough soya beans or nuke China if China buy too much soya beans and who think it a great game to bully China just for the fun of it. And generally think China got 200++ nukes and easy meat to be crushed by mighty USA carriers and must kowtow to threats and provocations made by them or be nuked.

Those I termed as 'Muricans as against the vast majority of Americans who are generous and kind hearted, intelligent and respectful and want only peace."

But the scary part is that even if much, or most Americans are Americans, it will only take a handful of 'Muricans to hijack agenda and lead the other Americans by their nose to do the bidding of those 'Muricans.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

my in law is in beijing, they need get med certificate in order to get into their gated community home, the problem is local hospital wait time is very long, and going to hospital at this time as health human is risky.
What's this chicken neck bitching at? I couldn't finish the whole thing because it's too annoying to listen to all this sass about how much of a hard time it is for hospitals to be overwhelmed and I cannot connect that to his initial statement that he's not even scared of death so he's not scared of the CCP. I think I stopped and called it right at when he nearly cried talking about how scary it is to see ambulances driving around at night... Couldn't find a point in his estrogen-induced oral diarrhea.
 
George F. Gao's publiction.

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gosh noticed the sentence (it's in the right column of page 8)
"This is a modest-sized case series of patients admitted to hospital; collection of standardised data for a larger cohort would help to further define the clinical presentation, natural history, and risk factors."

now "a larger cohort" has become available
 
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