Hong-Kong Protests

[KYli]

Both you and the article are ignoring that 20% of the district council vote that flipped and what the reasons may be for flipping, none of which is explained by your precious 4-6 rule. You are changing what you/article are saying from 60% supported the violence (untrue) to 60% supported the pan-Dems (true). You are the one playing loose with the facts and ignoring critical questions to fit your narrative and you just can't stand being held up to scrutiny.

You are the one who ignore a simple fact that is the pan-Dems camp voters didn't come out to vote for a low turnout and not politicized previous district election. Claiming that there are 20% swing votes is just absurd. If you really cared about the facts, you would not try to compare the result of a low turnout election of 47.01% with the result of a high turnout election of 71.23% directly.

Answer me, from 1998 HK legislative elections to 2018 HK elections, the pan-Dems camp has won at least 55% of the votes in each election. Can you explain to me where is the 20% swing votes?

 

[PanAsian]

You are the one who ignore a simple fact that is the pan-Dems camp voters didn't come out to vote for a low turnout and not politicized previous district election. Claiming that there are 20% swing votes is just absurd. If you really cared about the facts, you would not try to compare the result of a low turnout election of 47.01% with the result of a high turnout election of 71.23% directly.

Answer me, from 1998 HK legislative elections to 2018 HK elections, the pan-Dems camp has won at least 55% of the votes in each election. Can you explain to me where is the 20% swing votes?

Why don't you explain to me why the district council elections votes didn't correspond all these years until now to the legco votes?

Higher turnout in a single election does not put the difference of these normally non-voters in the "pan-Dem camp", in fact it makes this round of district council election an anomaly and it is much more likely there was a swing protest/submission vote from people who normally don't care to vote (aka neutral) to come out against the pro-establishment camp, because the pro-establishment camp and the actual government have been so inept at getting the riots under control, or to appease the pan-Dems so the rioting would lessen or cease.

 

[KYli]

Why don't you explain to me why the district council elections votes didn't correspond all these years until now to the legco votes?

Higher turnout in a single election does not put the difference of these normally non-voters in the "pan-Dem camp", in fact it makes this round of district council election an anomaly and it is much more likely there was a swing protest/submission vote from people who normally don't care to vote (aka neutral) to come out against the pro-establishment camp, because the pro-establishment camp and the actual government have been so inept at getting the riots under control, or to appease the pan-Dems so the rioting would lessen or cease.

I have already explained. That district elections were not politicized in the previous elections. Pro-establishment supporters tend to be elderly and the pan-Dems camp supporters tend to be younger. Since older voters have always been more reliable voters than younger voters(that is also true in US and many other nations), pro-establishment tends to do better in a low turnout election because its supporters would come out to vote no matter what. The pan-Dems camp supporters tend to be younger and they are less reliable voters. Since district council is about community services, the pan-Dems supporters don't tend to view it politically and wouldn't come out to vote like they did for the more important legislative elections.

Your analysis is flawed because if that is the case, then the pan-Dems camp would not have received more votes than the pro-establishment in every HK legislative elections. We are talking about six HK legislative elections. You are telling me that is not a clear indication of the support that the pan-Dems camp has.

"2016 HK legislative elections, pro-establishment received 40.17% of the votes and the pan-Dems received 55.02% of the votes. In 2012 HK legislative elections, pro-establishment received 42.66% of the votes and the pan-Dems received 56.24% of the votes. In 2008 HK legislative elections, pro-establishment received 39.71% of the votes and the pan-Dems received 59.39% of the votes. In 2004 HK legislative elections, pro-establishment received 36.93% of the votes and the pan-Dems received 60.52% of the votes. In 2000 HK legislative elections, pro-establishment received 34.94% of the votes and the pan-Dems received 60.56% of the votes. In 1998 HK legislative elections , pro-establishment received 30.38% of the votes and the pan-Dems received 66.15% of the votes."

 

[Jura The idiot]

...



I say that Sunday's shortage of supporters for the cockroaches -- where are the millions of people seen in previous months? -- is more evidence for thinking that the rioters are losing popular support. Are you going to claim that that was mere observation and therefore irrelevant?

...





Most of the big rallies were held in June and July. The violent protests have escalated even as the attendants of the so called peaceful protests dwindled. It only indicated that the violent protests have discouraged the moderates from attending the peaceful protests because the peaceful protests were never ended up peaceful. It doesn't mean these moderates stop supporting the pan-Dems camp or the rioters.

last week I read there should be something major on Dec. 8

Friday at 8:12 AM

according to

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the protests will resume today (Friday October 29), and a supposedly big one will be on next Friday (December 8), so let's wait and see

oops I incorrectly said Dec. 8 would come on Friday

using google now:
"A big test of support for the anti-government campaign is expected on Dec. 8 in a rally planned by Civil Human Rights Front, the group that organized million-strong marches in June."

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[Jura The idiot]

from inside of
Pro-Beijing supporters turn up at Hong Kong’s lunchtime protests, stepping on US flag and pictures of Donald Trump

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:

captioned:

A Pro-Beijing group marches to the US Consulate in Hong Kong. Photo: Roy Issa

 

[PanAsian]

I have already explained. That district elections were not politicized in the previous elections.

That is a broad and vague assumption that does not actually get into why voters voted the way they did.

Pro-establishment supporters tend to be elderly and the pan-Dems camp supporters tend to be younger. Since older voters have always been more reliable voters than younger voters(that is also true in US and many other nations), pro-establishment tends to do better in a low turnout election because its supporters would come out to vote no matter what. The pan-Dems camp supporters tend to be younger and they are less reliable voters. Since district council is about community services, the pan-Dems supporters don't tend to view it politically and wouldn't come out to vote like they did for the more important legislative elections.

These are just equally broad justifications for labels that do not explain why voters voted the way they did. If you are saying HK voters are only voting based on labels not actual policies or actions then that is sufficient but you are claiming otherwise. Again, you are changing what you/article are saying from 60% supported the violence (untrue) to 60% supported the pan-Dems (true).

Your analysis is flawed because if that is the case, then the pan-Dems camp would not have received more votes than the pro-establishment in every HK legislative elections. We are talking about six HK legislative elections. You are telling me that is not a clear indication of the support that the pan-Dems camp has.

Again you are putting words in my mouth. All along I have said there is not enough information to come to the conclusions you have. I do not need to come to alternate conclusions but I can propose equally plausible theories that actually dig deeper into the issues. Again if you are saying HK voters only vote by labels then that is fine but you are trying to claim more than that.

"2016 HK legislative elections, pro-establishment received 40.17% of the votes and the pan-Dems received 55.02% of the votes. In 2012 HK legislative elections, pro-establishment received 42.66% of the votes and the pan-Dems received 56.24% of the votes. In 2008 HK legislative elections, pro-establishment received 39.71% of the votes and the pan-Dems received 59.39% of the votes. In 2004 HK legislative elections, pro-establishment received 36.93% of the votes and the pan-Dems received 60.52% of the votes. In 2000 HK legislative elections, pro-establishment received 34.94% of the votes and the pan-Dems received 60.56% of the votes. In 1998 HK legislative elections , pro-establishment received 30.38% of the votes and the pan-Dems received 66.15% of the votes."

That depends on voter turnout in all those elections, demographics across time, and what the hot topics were at the time of those elections. Again I am pointing out that you are making claims without sufficient evidence and I am not making any claims myself. That we are just putting forth equally plausible theories.

 

[KYli]

These are just equally broad justifications for labels that do not explain why voters voted the way they did. If you are saying HK voters are only voting based on labels not actual policies or actions then that is sufficient but you are claiming otherwise. Again, you are changing what you/article are saying from 60% supported the violence (untrue) to 60% supported the pan-Dems (true).

Can you just stop putting your words in my mouth? What labels, in the US, the Democratic party tends to do better in Blacks, women, and minority. Is that a fact? yes.

Again, Can you just stop putting your words in my mouth? My position has always been the same. 56.7% supported pan-Dems camp which legitimatized the rioters and gave them the mandate to continue the riots. Since voters knew perfectly well that the pan-Dems camp supported the rioters, then voting for the pan-Dems camp is equal to giving a tacit approval to the rioters or hint that the voters believe the government and police should be blamed for the violent protests not the protesters.

Again you are putting words in my mouth. All along I have said there is not enough information to come to the conclusions you have. I do not need to come to alternate conclusions but I can propose equally plausible theories that actually dig deeper into the issues. Again if you are saying HK voters only vote by labels then that is fine but you are trying to claim more than that.

The results of six legislative elections are not enough to make any conclusions. "Again you are putting words in my mouth", I never said that HK voters only vote by labels. I just pointed out more people in the past six legislative elections have voted for the pan-Dems camp than the pro-establishment.

That depends on voter turnout in all those elections, demographics across time, and what the hot topics were at the time of those elections. Again I am pointing out that you are making claims without sufficient evidence and I am not making any claims myself. That we are just putting forth equally plausible theories.

The turnout for the six legislative elections are higher than the district elections except the 2019 HK district election which is the highest turnout ever for any election. That can be looked up by googling for a few minutes. I don't need to provide any additional evidence. The results of six legislative elections have shown more HK people have voted for the pan-Dems camp. That's a fact. That is the only thing that I needed to prove.

 

[Jura The idiot]

Yesterday at 7:41 PM

Hong Kong anti-government protests bring biggest retail slump on record, as finance minister Paul Chan reveals cost to overall economy

• City’s finance chief says months of social unrest have caused economic losses of about 2 per cent of GDP
• Government reveals it is on course for first budget deficit in 15 years

basically the article describes the current HK recession; follow the link

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if interested


EDIT linking what Glob. Times had to say:
HK set to report first budget deficit in 15 years

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followup:
Hong Kong to roll out more relief measures amid economic recession
Xinhua| 2019-12-03 22:18:01

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inside seeing "over 1,000 more restaurants may not survive the current crisis by February" makes me wonder how many restaurants are there in HK


wow, from googlefu:
Number of restaurants in HK?
According to Food & Environmental Hygiene Department, total number of restaurants in HK has slightly increased to 15,524 by late July 2019 but remained quite stable around this figure over the year.

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[localizer]

 

[taxiya]

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FLG, neonazis, incels

peas in a pod

Send the neo-nazis to Russia, no question asked, no record taken.