Is the US shooting itself in the foot by banning Huawei?

[taxiya]

In a skirmish and on tactical level conflict, cost/casualty vs. gains are important. In an all out war (trade or not) and on strategic level, cost/casualty is the least consideration because it is about life and death. So I am only going to say that arguing about damage to Huawei due to Trump's ban is pointless, being distracted and irrelevant. China did not stop entering the Korean war just because China would take a higher casualty in 1950s. The last time China was over concerned of casualty and cost was in the late of Qing dynasty, caring for the cost only led China to loose more.

I am not promoting an all out fight, but as it is said China should and would not avoid such fight when forced to. China has survived numerous fights more severe than today in its 5000 years history. China is still standing and being known as same entity. Where are those ferocious mighty opponents today? Nowhere.

To conclude I will quote this from CCTV news program on May 12th.

对于贸易战，中国早就表明态度：不愿打，但也不怕打，必要时不得不打。面对美国的软硬两手，中国也早已给出答案：谈，大门敞开；打，奉陪到底。经历了五千多年风风雨雨的中华民族，什么样的阵势没见过？！在实现民族复兴的伟大进程中，必然会有艰难险阻甚至惊涛骇浪。美国发起的对华贸易战，不过是中国发展进程中的一道坎儿，没什么大不了，中国势必化危为机，借此来检验自身的能力，使国家变得更加强大。

　　无论外部风云如何变幻，对中国来说，最重要的就是做好自己的事情，不断深化改革，扩大开放，实现经济高质量发展。美国下一步是要谈，还是要打，抑或是采取别的动作，中国都已备足了政策工具箱，做好了全面应对的准备。这正如习近平主席所说，中国经济是一片大海，而不是一个小池塘；狂风骤雨可以掀翻小池塘，但不能掀翻大海；经历了无数次狂风骤雨，大海依旧在那儿！

To the trade war, China has made is clear: we don't like it, but we are not afraid of it, we will fight when necessary. China has given the answer: Talk, the door is open; Fight, we are ready to finish it. Chinese nation has experienced everything in the past 5000 years. There is certainly obstacles or even great dangers in the national restoration. The trade war is just one of the many obstacles, no big deal, China ought to take this obstacle as an opportunity to test our own capability and make us stronger.

Regardless outside turmoil, the most important thing is doing a good homework, deepening reform, opening up more and realize development of high quality. No matter what next steps US is taking, we are well prepared. Like President Xi has said, Chinese economy is a sea, not a pound, hurricane can turn over the pound but not the sea; The sea is always there no matter how many hurricanes blowing.

To the one who screams that "China is/will surrender" or "has no choice but..." or "sending nice letter" etc. etc. Here is the answer:
China is just ignoring Trump. You build the stage, you direct the show, you play the show, it is all yours and only yours, have fun with yourself.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

And you don't know hwo advance is Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturer are Go read it I already posted so many of them
For every semiconductor equipment manufacturer China has analoqu. There are thousand of Chinese engineer who worked for the like of Applied material, Lam research, ASML, KLA tensor who come back to China and started their own bussiness

Furthermore, semiconductor fab manufacturing is largely capital bound, whereas turbine technology really does take a massive amount of time to perfect. Semi conductor fab tech is extremely difficult to master, but it is still very very different from the challenges that block turbine tech. There is nothing analogous to growing, testing, and evaluating single crystal blades one after another, sequentially within semi conductor fab. Also, both scale of investment as well as incentives are far greater for semi conductor tech than turbine tech

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
China’s Huawei vows to challenge blacklisting by US, warning that decision ‘will do significant harm’ to American companies

• Telecoms giant says move by US Commerce Department will ‘affect tens of thousands of American jobs’
• Blacklist order will go into effect on Friday, according to US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross

Updated: 1:58am, 17 May, 2019

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Huawei Technologies said on Thursday it will challenge a decision by the US Commerce Department to add the Chinese company and 70 affiliates to a export blacklist, warning the decision “will do significant economic harm to the American companies with which Huawei does business”.

Huawei said the decision will “affect tens of thousands of American jobs, and disrupt the current collaboration and mutual trust that exist on the global supply chain”. The Commerce Department did not immediately comment.

The Chinese telecommunications giant said it would seek ways to resolve the issue.

“Huawei will seek remedies immediately and find a resolution to this matter. We will also proactively endeavour to mitigate the impacts of this incident,” the company said in a statement.

The addition of the company and its 70 affiliates to the Commerce Department’s “Entity List” bans the company from acquiring components and technology from US firms without government approval.

US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Thursday that the order will go into effect on Friday.

“The order dealing with Huawei itself will be effective tomorrow,” Ross said in an interview with Bloomberg Television and Radio. The executive order, which was announced on Wednesday, barred Huawei from acquiring components and technology from US firms without government approval.

US officials said the order would also make it difficult, if not impossible, for Huawei, the largest telecommunications equipment producer in the world, to sell some products because of its reliance on US suppliers.

The dramatic move comes as the Trump administration has aggressively lobbied other countries not to use Huawei equipment in next-generation 5G networks and comes just days after Washington imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods amid an escalating trade war.

 

[taxiya]

China has not really a lot of good options. We should not be naive.

Xi is so afraid that he is sending a beautiful letter to trump.

and you believe what Trump said?!
and you know what the letter actually says IF there is one such letter?
are you sure Xi did not say something to the effect of "GFY"?

 

[localizer]

Anyone know where to find the list of affiliates?

 

[taxiya]

Yes, China response have been so weak. China does not seem to know what to do really.

Fear of pain !

China is doing "ignoring". Have you experience this situation, after you have made a long tough speech, the reply was just "whatever..."?

Pain? First everybody feels pain when being hit, Chinese certainly feel it, BUT you need to ask the American farmers how do they feel as well. Here is something for you to begin with

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. P.S. I sincerely feel sorry for him because I feel the same for Chinese commoners suffering.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Guys, all these back and forth, whether China is tough or not, etc. is not helping the debate.

Before Trump use this trump card (no pun intended). I was optimistic regarding the trade war, I was confidence that Trump was desperate by the way he acted, like requesting China to move tariffs to Democrat areas, and requesting China to purchase soya beans immediately. I know from that he was loosing it.

And because he is loosing it, he has now step over the line with this national security thing which prohibit US companies from trading with Huawai.

Furthermore, he's technically stop non-US companies trading with Huawai by ways of threats "sanctions" to those companies livelihood in the US.

This, I think has crossed the line!

There are two points to this,

1, Can Huawai survive this, and what can Huawai do? Although it does look like Huawai has taken actions to mitigate this in the short term, it'll need to come up with a strategy to solve this problem in the long term.

2, What can/should China do about this trump card Trump has just played?

Myself, I don't know, but I do know China should respond even just to send a message that this action is below the belt.

Maybe China should move from trade to services industries?

Whatever it is, we can't stand by and let this bully continue, because a bully will continues until it get hit back!

 

[Orthan]

US officials said the order would also make it difficult, if not impossible, for Huawei, the largest telecommunications equipment producer in the world, to sell some products because of its reliance on US suppliers.

According to this bloomberg article, about a third of huawei´s budget is spent on american components. Thats a lot.

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China is just ignoring Trump. You build the stage, you direct the show, you play the show, it is all yours and only yours, have fun with yourself.

Things arent that simple. China needs the american market/tech, and the US government is putting tarifs/tech barriers to china. China cant ignore that. If china is ignoring that, thats because china cant respond to it, as simple as that.

 

[CMP]

According to this bloomberg article, about a third of huawei´s budget is spent on american components. Thats a lot.

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Bloomberg does not have a track record of lying or making things up about China/Huawei.

 

[Faithlock]

Here is another interview of Richard Chang,

it talked about why China can't grow a true semiconductor fab.

Richard said China already grow a lot already. Just not enough. Biggest problem is not enough talent. Even foreign companies (from Singapore, Korea, and US)
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In the interview, he only mentioned companies from Singapore, Korea, and USA as the source of talent recruitment. But in actuality, in other Taiwanese interviews, it is Taiwan and China are the main culprit. Taiwan's TSMC had a personal feud with him. But the main culprit is actually from other Chinese companies.

Chinese companies wanted a fab industry so much that they do the only thing they know how, they throw money at the problem. Once Grace semi and SMIC started the fab in 2000, and trained Chinese engineers. It didn't take long before many of them start to open their own companies due to generous government policy encouragement. Since money is virtually free from the government, they can keeps on sucking engineering talent from SMIC and Grace semi. This make SMIC very difficult to go to the next node.

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I felt like China is at a tipping point. China has so many fabs in construction. She also have so many startups that build different aspects of semiconductor equipment. A intelligent government policy that requires all fabs in China (including foreign owned) to use different percentages for their equipment. You can't have a blunt force approach. Each difference piece of equipment need different percentage.

I truly hope Xi understand that all the conditions are there now. Moore's law had completely broken down, you are not chasing someone faster than you anymore. A strong industrial policy that requires Chinese content in EVERY part of the supply chain and discriminatory toward US companies will create truly independent industries in both Semiconductor fab industry and Semiconductor Equipment industry for China. While it is against the WTO policy, China can certainly do it now given what happens with Trump. It might also force China to forget about the 7nm or even decrease the expansion of 14 nm. But in return, China can truly create national champions in Semiconductor fab companies and Semiconductor equipment companies.

The ball is in Xi's court.