Trade War with China

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plawolf

Lieutenant General
What makes you so confident to claim it is the US side that takes the full burden of the tariffs? Can you back that up?.

Because that’s how tariffs work. If you buy something from abroad and customs send you a demand letter for import tariffs and duties, good luck trying to seller to pay that.

But the bigger picture issue is that these tariffs will cost both sides far more than just the tariff value themselves.

Very very few sectors and businesses makes 25%+ net profit to be able to absorb these higher costs, and even of the ones that could absorb the hit, most wont. That means most, if not all of these new additional tariffs will get passed onto the US consumers.

That might cause a drop in demand as some choose to forgo purchases, which in turn might lead to less demand and factory closures in China and retailers to fail in the US.

That’s the most basic case of finished goods imports. Things get far more complicated and harder to model when you consider modern integrated supply chains and just in time manufacturing, where a component might pull parts from all over the world and cross oceans multiple times before becoming a finished product. That means one finished product might get hit several times with 25% tariffs at multiple stages of the supply chain, so the final hit to companies and customers might be many times higher.

And that’s just from the US side’s actions. Chinese retaliation will be targeted to cause the US the most economic damage.

China has been pulling its punches so far because it doesn’t want this fight. Trump needs to be careful he doesn’t push China too far, because if China actually went out of its way to cause damage, like the US has been doing with Huawei, many in the US might be in for a nasty shock at just how quickly and how badly things can turn for them.
 

Max Demian

Junior Member
Registered Member
The buyer pays the tariff not the seller. Since over 60% of exports from China to the US are foreign corporations outsourcing to China shipping their products to the US to be sold to consumers, the burden of tariffs is not on China. When Japanese export their cars to Japanese car dealers in the US, the Japanese will feel the tariff. But since US manufacturers outsource to China to have their products made, it's the US corporation that pays the tariff to ship their product back home to sell to consumers. China only gets paid for the slave labor to make a product for a foreigners. If China only gets $10 dollars for every iPhone made and Trump slaps a 25% tariff on a $1000 iPhone, that's $250. China doesn't pay $250 for an iPhone where their end only makes $10. Apple pays it or else China just got a load of iPhones for $10 each that they can sell.

Don't get me wrong. I do expect that the US importers (or consumers) are indeed paying the larger share of the burden. However, I would be surprised if Chinese companies aren't footing part of the bill. Why cannot the importers ask the suppliers to cut their costs? Or the target country's currency depreciates to offset some of the cost?

At some point, importing product A from country B becomes unprofitable and you start making plans to import product A from country C.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Don't get me wrong. I do expect that the US importers (or consumers) are indeed paying the larger share of the burden. However, I would be surprised if Chinese companies aren't footing part of the bill. Why cannot the importers ask the suppliers to cut their costs? Or the target country's currency depreciates to offset some of the cost?

At some point, importing product A from country B becomes unprofitable and you start making plans to import product A from country C.

The problem with your argument is there is no other source of import . It takes a lot of time to change the supplier Majority of US importer still import from China . due to scale,efficiency, logistic, harbor, custom etc
 
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solarz

Brigadier
Don't get me wrong. I do expect that the US importers (or consumers) are indeed paying the larger share of the burden. However, I would be surprised if Chinese companies aren't footing part of the bill. Why cannot the importers ask the suppliers to cut their costs? Or the target country's currency depreciates to offset some of the cost?

At some point, importing product A from country B becomes unprofitable and you start making plans to import product A from country C.

They can, and that's the purpose of tariffs, but that still doesn't mean China is paying for those tariffs.

Just as the US can switch suppliers, China can also switch buyers. I suspect it's equally difficult for either to do so, so both are on equal footing here.

In the end though, it's still the Americans who are paying for the tariffs.

Like someone had previously pointed out, tariffs are just a form of taxation. You cannot levy taxes on another country. What Trump is basically saying is that raising taxes has improved the economy, which, all else aside, should have made Republican heads explode.
 

Max Demian

Junior Member
Registered Member
The problem with your argument is there is no other source of import . I take a lot of time to change the supplier Majority of US importer still import from China . due to scale,efficiency, logistic, harbor, custom etc

In the short term, yes. However, given enough incentive and time it will happen. The long term outcome may be that country A and B trade less with each other, while offsetting the loss by increasing the trade with other countries.

Or maybe the Americans realize that they don't really need 5 TVs per household ... but I wouldn't bet on that
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Again, China can pay the tariffs by depreciation of the Yuan and subsidies, but we have no way to know how much this is happening.
 
Today at 7:27 AM
Yesterday at 7:43 PM
and didn't see anything in Xinhua in English, People's Daily yet, but now read
Asia stocks plummet after Trump renews tariff threat on China
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and
Trump threatens to raise tariffs on $200B worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent
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still nothing in Xinhua, People's Daily??

now I read
China to resist US pressure
Source:Global Times Published: 2019/5/6 22:43:40
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Beijing hopes for trade win-win deal, sticks to stance: FM

China on Monday showed restraint over a pair of unexpected tweets from US President Donald Trump, who threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, even as the two sides have strived for an agreement to end their bruising trade war, and urged the US to work together to reach a win-win deal.

Analysts said China's markedly controlled response to what some called "blackmail-style tactics" from the US also underscored the country's firm stance and growing confidence in dealing with a volatile and unpredictable US administration, and that China is unlikely to give in to pressure.

At a routine press briefing on Monday, Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry, did not address the threats directly, but instead offered a relatively concise response, urging the US to work toward a win-win deal.

"The most urgent thing at the moment is that we still hope the US side will work with China, and that the two sides will meet each other halfway and strive for a mutually beneficial agreement on the basis of mutual respect," Geng said.

In a pair of tweets Sunday night, Trump said a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion in Chinese products will be increased to 25 percent on Friday, and threatened to slap a 25 percent tariff on an additional $325 billion in Chinese goods "shortly."

"The trade deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!" tweeted Trump, who had said the talks were going "very well" and that the two sides were close to a "historic, monumental" deal as recent as Friday.

After 10 rounds of high-level talks since last year, Chinese and US officials had hailed major progress toward ending the trade war, and a deal was widely expected to be reached as soon as later this week, when a Chinese delegation, led by Vice Premier Liu He, was scheduled to arrive in Washington for another round of negotiations.

Following Trump's tweets, some US media reported that Liu might skip the upcoming talks. Asked if Liu would still travel to Washington this week, Geng did not offer a direct answer but said the Chinese team was "preparing to go to the US for the talks."

Firm stance

But in what seems to be a subtle comment, Geng conveyed a powerful message.

He said that China has seen similar threats of tariffs on Chinese goods many times before and that the Chinese side's stance and attitude has always been very clear. "The US is also well aware of that too," he said.

"[This is saying] that we know what you are trying to do but it will not change our stance," Bai Ming, deputy director of the
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's International Market Research Institute, told the Global Times on Monday, pointing out that the move is a typical US negotiation tactic. "But the US should know by now that China will never give in to pressure."

Since the beginning of the trade war, Chinese officials have made it clear that they are always open to talks and mutually beneficial solutions but they will never give up core interests. Chinese officials have also repeatedly stressed that while China does not want to engage in a trade war, it is not afraid of one either.

It remains to be seen whether the US would follow up on the threats and whether trade talks could be derailed, but China is prepared to deal with different scenarios, said Liang Haiming, dean of Hainan University's
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Research Institute, who is closely following the trade talks.

"I am certain that China has prepared countermeasures," Liang told the Global Times on Monday, adding that if the US escalates the trade war, China would respond in kind; and if the US wanted to continue to talk, China would talk. "It's all about what the US decides to do," he said.

Global damage

However, even if the planned talks push through, the tweets have already done some damage, analysts said.

"At the very least, it ruined the friendly atmosphere surrounding the talks that we have seen over the past few months," Bai said, adding that the sudden change also brought fresh uncertainty to a sluggish global economy and skittish global markets.

After Trump's tweets, global stock markets tumbled on Monday. In Asia, markets in Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney slid. In Europe, markets in France, Germany, Spain and Italy all opened sharply lower on Monday, with the EURO STOXX 50 index down about 2 percent shortly after the markets opened, the deepest drop since January 2.

US stocks also plunged at the opening bell on Monday, with the NASDAQ dropping by 2.19 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 1.72 percent, and the S&P 500 shedding 1.56 percent.

In the Chinese mainland, stocks closed significantly lower on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite down 5.58 percent and the smaller Shenzhen Component Index down 7.56 percent.

Though Trump's tweets played a major role in Monday's losses, the downtrend was temporary and economic fundamentals remain solid, said Li Daxiao, chief economist at Shenzhen-based Yingda Securities.

"There is no need to panic," he told the Global Times on Monday.

He said that a slew of economic data in the first quarter suggest that the Chinese economy was very resilient and that further stimulus would help boost growth.

In what appeared to be doubling down, Trump on Monday tweeted that the US was losing $500 billion each year to China. "Sorry, we are not going to be doing that anymore!" he wrote, without elaborating.
 
now I read
China still ‘preparing’ delegation for US trip despite Donald Trump’s threat to increase tariffs
  • US President said he will increase punitive tariffs on US$200 billion of imports from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on Friday in a tweet posted on Sunday
  • Liu He could depart Beijing on Thursday, three days later than previously scheduled, and leave Washington a day later, says a source
Updated: 1:55am, 7 May, 2019
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China is still preparing to send a delegation to Washington for the trade talks despite the latest threats by US President Donald Trump to increase tariffs, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said on Monday.

“There have been many times that the US side has threatened to increase tariffs,” Geng said when asked about Trump’s tweets on Sunday which threatened to impose punitive tariffs on US$200 billion of imports from China tariffs beginning on Friday. “China’s positions are clear and the US side is well aware of them.

“[We had hoped] to make progress in our trade talks and [we] hope the US side can work together with us and move in the same direction so we can achieve a deal that can benefit both sides. Everyone in China and abroad is very concerned about the next round of talks, and we are also learning about the relevant changes. The Chinese delegation is preparing to go to the US for the negotiations.”

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced Monday morning that it had cut the required reserve ratio -- the amount of money banks must hold in reserve at the central bank -- for smaller banks to help spur lending to small businesses, who would be hit hardest by higher trade tariffs. The PBOC said the move was part of its on-going adjustments to help small businesses, making no mention of Trump’s tariff threat.

There were high hopes that Liu He’s trip to Washington this week for the 11th round of talks would produce a deal to end the trade war which has ravaged the global economy for almost a year.

But after
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on Sunday that punitive tariffs on US$200 billion of imports from China will increase from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on Friday, Beijing must now consider whether to bow to the pressure from the United States and make more concessions, or break off negotiations altogether rather than appear to cave in to US demands.

Liu could depart Beijing on Thursday, three days later than previously scheduled, and leave Washington a day later, the source who has been briefed on the latest arrangements confirmed.

Another source said both sides remain committed to a final agreement, but Trump’s threat puts the Chinese delegation in a difficult position as any agreement could be perceived by the domestic audience as a capitulation to the White House.

Trump’s threat of additional sanctions on Chinese imports revealed his impatience due to a lack of sufficient concessions from China, with sources suggesting that President Xi Jinping vetoed additional concessions proposed by his negotiators.

Sources familiar with the discussions said the proposals submitted to Xi included one that promised more concessions.

“Xi told them ‘I’ll be responsible for all possible consequences’,” the second source said. Chinese negotiators subsequently presented a tougher proposal to Washington, although it is not clear if they pitched an amended proposal to Xi after the latest round of talks in Beijing last week.

Trump also stated the US may impose extra duties on additional goods shipped from China, with US$325 billion in Chinese goods still untouched by the stand-off set to become subject to the 25 per cent “soon”.

Lu Xiang, an expert on China-US relations from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Trump was pursuing a strategy of putting maximum pressure on China.

“If China cancels the trip, Trump would blame China for the failure of the trade negotiations,” he said.

One possible response from China could be to send a smaller delegation to US, he said.

“After the intensive talks, China is familiar with the style of Trump and his administration. Trump’s flip-flop announcement is not a big surprise for China, but China should be prepared for the worse-than-worst scenario”, added Lu.

Trump’s latest move followed signals that the most recent round of talks in Beijing last week did not yield progress on some key US demands, including a curtailment of China’s subsidies to its state-owned enterprises – one of the factors that prompted the US government to start the trade war.

Lighthizer was in Beijing with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin last week for the 10th round of talks since the trade war started.

Mnuchin said just before he and Lighthizer headed to Beijing last week for a 10th round of talks that the US side expected to “either recommend to the president we have a deal or make a recommendation that we don’t”.

Reaction from China did not confirm the seemingly fixed deadline, and suggested that Beijing is resisting pressure from Trump’s team.
 

SpicySichuan

Senior Member
Registered Member
The buyer pays the tariff not the seller. Since over 60% of exports from China to the US are foreign corporations outsourcing to China shipping their products to the US to be sold to consumers, the burden of tariffs is not on China. When Japanese export their cars to Japanese car dealers in the US, the Japanese will feel the tariff. But since US manufacturers outsource to China to have their products made, it's the US corporation that pays the tariff to ship their product back home to sell to consumers. China only gets paid for the slave labor to make a product for a foreigners. If China only gets $10 dollars for every iPhone made and Trump slaps a 25% tariff on a $1000 iPhone, that's $250. China doesn't pay $250 for an iPhone where their end only makes $10. Apple pays it or else China just got a load of iPhones for $10 each that they can sell.
I'm afraid it is not the Trump Administration's concern who pays for the tariffs. It is about a strategic decoupling from the Chinese economy. However, as y'all understand, the day when merchants cease to cross the borders, armies will.
 

SpicySichuan

Senior Member
Registered Member
We Win Trade War, The Communist State Falls Apart
The U.S. hates China's market distortions, but it turns out they're critical to keeping Xi's government in control.
By
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trump-xi-554x350.jpg

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in November 2017. (White House/public domain)
On April 26, Chinese President Xi Jinping
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that China will “eliminate improper rules, subsidies, and practices that impede fair competition and distort the market.” If this is true, a win-win deal between the United State and China should arrive shortly, and President Donald Trump will have saved America from what Vice President Mike Pence
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China’s “predatory capitalism.”

But in all likelihood, none of this will happen. That’s because the trade war is, to a large extent, a conflict over the Chinese Communist Party’s most important means of keeping itself in power: subsidies and the state sector. These practices are inflicting great harm on China’s trading partners, and the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea are growing less tolerant of them. If the United States is determined to halt the economic damage of China’s trade practices, it has two choices: either attempt to get the Chinese government to give up the tools it needs to hold power—an unrealistic and possibly dangerous goal—or greatly reduce economic ties with China, which would also bring great pain and risk.

China’s subsidies and state sector are as much about politics as they are about economics. In a panel hosted by the Asia Society in 2018, Chinese politics expert Minxin Pei said, “China has such a large state sector, not for any economic reasons. It’s a purely political tool for the Chinese Communist Party to control the economy and keep itself together.”

Xi Jinping’s government almost certainly uses the state sector to distribute income to politically significant individuals and groups, which helps prevent challenges to his power. The presence of many thousands of
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in China is a case in point. And if anything, the Chinese state sector and its subsidies are only set to increase in political consequence. Over the last few years, Xi has rewired China’s political system, severely
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the intra-party democracy that Deng Xiaoping established to prevent a repeat of the horrors of Mao Zedong. The destruction exacted on the Chinese political system, and the accumulation of personal power, make these tools more vital for the Chinese government to hold onto power because they increase the likelihood that
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will come from Chinese elites.

From the American perspective, the costs of living with these trade practices are far too high to justify perpetuating an unreformed trade relationship with China. Hence the bipartisan consensus against China’s trade practices. For example, China’s subsidization of its metals industry has
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steel and aluminum industries globally, causing great pain for industrial regions all over the world. Steve Bannon
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that the impact of China’s trade practices on the American Rust Belt contributed to the opioid crisis and led to Trump’s election. For many years, it was politically viable for American leaders to ignore China’s trade practices. The election of Trump abruptly ended all that.

What many seem to underappreciate is that significantly changing China’s trade practices would mean forcing the Chinese Communist Party to upend a core piece of what is holding its fragile political system together. A meaningful U.S. victory in the trade war would mean getting China to eliminate its subsidies and overhaul its state sector, which could also mean the downfall of the Chinese Communist Party. China’s leaders are well aware of this risk. They are unlikely to give the United States, the EU, Japan, and South Korea what they are looking for.

Of course, some of the Americans who are most interested in aggressively reforming the trade relationship with China are also those most interested in seeing the Chinese regime collapse. But that may not be such a wise outcome, given that it could cause China to descend into horrific violence and potentially lead to a major war.

So if the United States is determined to no longer bear the painful consequences of China’s trade practices, it can either get Beijing to significantly reform its economy—extremely unlikely given the nature of Chinese politics today—or it can decide to curtail the trade relationship. For now, America is trying the first option, but it does not take a genius to see why it is likely to fail. Some think the second option is our only bet.

Ultimately, this conundrum suggests that the Chinese and American systems are wholly incompatible as trade partners, unless the United States becomes willing and able to find some domestic way of accommodating the distortions of Chinese practices. But sooner or later, American policymakers will have to face this reality and the uncomfortable implications of it.

At the moment, it appears likely that Trump will accept an underwhelming deal with China that fails to seriously address the latter’s subsidies and state sector. As a consequence, the United States will likely continue to hemorrhage jobs to China. This will cause the political viability of trade with China to continue to decrease, and we’ll be staring at the same problem all over again.
 
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