Trade War with China

[Gatekeeper]

From a western perspective, Trump has screwed the Chinese people in that he killed off any chance of liberal social/economic reforms for a while. Nice job rallying people behind Xi/CCP and undoing decades of hard work by previous administrations.

This statements is so wrong on so many levels.

I know you quantified it by stating from the "western perspectives"
The western governments and MSM always harping on about this, on how they would like to see China reform and develop into the western liberal social economic democracy as China gets rich. And this is going to be good and desirable for China!
Why should it be good for China to do this?
Let's not forget, as the weaker economy as compare with the combined strength of the western and Japanese economies (13 trillion as opposed to over 30 trillion ).
China still got a long way to go to be comparable as equals. All the time, the western nations are always seeking ways to contain China to stop it from growing to a comparable economy.
And the easiest ways to do this is to divide and conquer. And the task to divide would be make easier if and when China becomes a liberal democratic nation.
And your statement that US has "screwed" the chinese people suggest you subscribe to the notion that China should become s liberal Democratic nation asap.
Let's not forget that western democracy didn't happen overnight. Ordinary men didn't get the votes till the late 19th century. Women didn't get the vote universally till the mid 20th century. And let's not forget the minorities!
China will develop in their own good time and when China is ready!

 

[localizer]

This statements is so wrong on so many levels.

I know you quantified it by stating from the "western perspectives"
The western governments and MSM always harping on about this, on how they would like to see China reform and develop into the western liberal social economic democracy as China gets rich. And this is going to be good and desirable for China!
Why should it be good for China to do this?
Let's not forget, as the weaker economy as compare with the combined strength of the western and Japanese economies (13 trillion as opposed to over 30 trillion ).
China still got a long way to go to be comparable as equals. All the time, the western nations are always seeking ways to contain China to stop it from growing to a comparable economy.
And the easiest ways to do this is to divide and conquer. And the task to divide would be make easier if and when China becomes a liberal democratic nation.
And your statement that US has "screwed" the chinese people suggest you subscribe to the notion that China should become s liberal Democratic nation asap.
Let's not forget that western democracy didn't happen overnight. Ordinary men didn't get the votes till the late 19th century. Women didn't get the vote universally till the mid 20th century. And let's not forget the minorities!
China will develop in their own good time and when China is ready!

"ASAP" is all relative. Engagement with China was a long term plan, of course it can't happen overnight and I'm pretty sure the US establishment understand this. There's gonna be the day when all the old party members are dead and the undereducated old generation go with them. A lot of their children who are western educated will take over. It's about winning those kids over through softpower.

Trump and his posse don't want to wait and couldn't care less about the well-being of non-whites. So here we are today.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
Trump meets with Chinese vice premier on trade talks
Xinhua| 2019-02-23 14:48:55

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U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday met with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House on bilateral ties and the ongoing trade talks.

Liu is in Washington D.C. for the seventh round of high-level economic and trade talks between the world's top two economies that started on Thursday. He is also visiting the United States as the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Liu first conveyed Xi's message to Trump. The Chinese president said the two nations' trade teams have recently been implementing the consensuses he reached with Trump in December in Argentina, and have carried out intensive economic and trade consultations.

Xi said these discussions have achieved good progress and have been well received by the two nations and the international community at large.

The Chinese president said he hopes the two sides would maintain the spirit of mutual respect and win-win cooperation, make further efforts and meet each other halfway, so as to reach a mutually beneficial and win-win agreement.

Xi said that he is willing to keep close contact with Trump via all channels. On behalf of himself and his wife Peng Liyuan, Xi also extended sincere greetings and best regards to Trump, his wife Melania and other members of the U.S. First Family.

During his meeting with Trump, Liu said his ongoing visit to the United States as Xi's special envoy aims to further implement the consensuses reached by the two presidents and push for further progress in the trade talks.

Over the past two days, the two teams have engaged in productive talks, and achieved good progress in such areas as balance of trade, agriculture, technology transfer, protection of intellectual property rights, and financial services, said Liu, who is also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chief of the Chinese side of the China-U.S. comprehensive economic dialogue.

Liu said the two teams will redouble their efforts and speed up the consultations in the next stage, so as to fulfill the great responsibility the two presidents placed on their shoulders.

For his part, Trump said he appreciates Xi's message, and asked Liu to convey his warmest regards to Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan, as well as to the Chinese people.

He stressed that his relationship with Xi is close and strong.

The U.S.-China relationship is extremely important and is currently "very good," Trump said, adding that "great progress" has been made in the past two days of talks, while there is still work to be done.

The two sides decided to extend the talks by two days till Sunday.

Trump said that he believes the two parties would eventually reach a deal that is both "meaningful" and "good for both countries."

He is looking forward to meeting Xi again in the near future and jointly witnessing a historic moment in bilateral trade and economic relations.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and Trump's senior advisor Jared Kushner also attended the meeting.

China and the United States on Thursday morning kicked off the seventh round of high-level economic and trade talks, as negotiators strived to beat a 90-day deadline that ends on March 1.

The ongoing round of talks came on the heels of the just-concluded round held in Beijing on Feb. 14-15, and the working-level consultation between the two sides started here earlier on Tuesday.

Altogether, these discussions aimed to resolve outstanding issues regarding the economic and trade relations between the world's two largest economies.

With the current round counted in, there have been three rounds of talks between the two sides in less than a month since the end of January, despite the week-long Lunar New Year holidays in China and George Washington's Birthday long weekend here in the United States.

During the last round of talks, the two sides reached consensus in principle on major issues, and had specific discussions about a memorandum of understanding on bilateral economic and trade issues.

After months of escalating trade friction involving massive extra tariffs on imports from each other, Xi and Trump agreed on Dec. 1 last year that the two countries should manage to reach a mutually beneficial and win-win agreement within 90 days to break the impasse.

The trade standoff has had negative impacts on both economies and added much uncertainty to global markets and the world economy.

During a meeting with the U.S. delegation last week, the Chinese president once again highlighted the role of cooperation in resolving the economic and trade differences and frictions, and urged negotiators of the two sides to "make persistent efforts" to reach a mutually beneficial deal.

"Cooperation is the best choice for both sides," Xi said, adding that "of course, there are principles in cooperation."

 

[Gatekeeper]

"ASAP" is all relative. Engagement with China was a long term plan, of course it can't happen overnight and I'm pretty sure the US establishment understand this. There's gonna be the day when all the old party members are dead and the undereducated old generation go with them. A lot of their children who are western educated will take over. It's about winning those kids over through softpower.

Trump and his posse don't want to wait and couldn't care less about the well-being of non-whites. So here we are today.

Sorry. Not sure what you're trying to say.

So here's my take. "Engagement is the long term plan".
No the long term plan was to move China away from the Soviet sphere of influence! By doing so gives US the edge over the Soviets.
Therefore it is self interest and it never was about the welfare, and democracy of the chinese people.

"Educated kids taking over"
But that's precisely what the current leaders are. They are the western educated kids taking over!

"Trump don't want to wait.. etc"
Trump is not waiting for anything. He's trying to delay, or curtail China's economic development in order for the US to maintain its dominant position in the global order.

"Careless about the well being of non-whites"
I might just agree with you on this point!

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read (LOL at one point made a break to check

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11:46, 24-Feb-2019
Here's why the trade war is coming to an end

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Far removed from the hype of Trump's threats to tariff all imports from China last September, the atmosphere of the much covered trade war between Washington and Beijing feels remarkably different. All eyes and talks now converge toward a deal in the making between the two economic giants.

Differences of course remain, but the conclusion that such an agreement will be reached seems highly likely, again a far flung contrast when the U.S. set out that China had "90 days" to negotiate otherwise tariffs would be stacked up to 20 percent – this being seldom discussed in Washington's rhetoric.

How did we end up toward such an outcome? The answer is simple: Although the administration cannot admit it publicly, the U.S. continues to depend on stable and productive economic ties with China, for all their disdain toward Beijing, this is ultimately a structural limitation by which they cannot change.

The Trump administration may have talked tough and vowed to take a harder line against China, but some of this rhetoric has served the purpose of political theater. Recognizing the need to now re-stabilize trade between the two countries and knowing the damage caused by further escalation, Trump is now eager to clinch a deal so he can claim "political victory" and that his trade war was a success. With 2020 now starting to emerge on the horizon, he ultimately needs this year to champion the fruits of his manifesto.

Many hawkish voices do not like it and desire to change it, but economic interdependence between China and the U.S. is a reality, one which comes with a hefty price tag for Washington if it serves to push Beijing too hard. Although Trump and his administration have repeatedly tried to claim otherwise, a prolonged trade war poses risks for America.

2019 is a year whereby U.S growth is set to slow down. The impact of Trump's tax cuts is now dulling, the hefty government shutdown from December to January hurts it, consumption has not increased at a rate fast enough to keep up the current pace, then of course the trade war itself is making a contribution. Forecasts for global growth from all major economic institutions have revised it downward citing trade tensions as the culprit.

Thus, whilst Trump undoubtedly desired the trade war to hurt China somewhat to gain concessions, he knew his limitations and risks well. He had no desire for a prolonged struggle. As a result, he opted for a strategy that was short, quick and of course offered Beijing the chance to negotiate from early on to de-escalate the situation, repeatedly having tweeted through the months beforehand that China "wanted to make a deal."

Such tactics are a modus operandi of Trump's, whereby he threatens irrational consequences on an opponent, threatens continued escalation and then offers the hand of negotiation to them when they fear a crisis. He then afterward claims "he won" – although on most occasions the eventual deal is often less than what people anticipate.

As a result, when the administration again talked tough over a "90-day window" for China to negotiate with the U.S. and offer economic concessions, this wasn't so much a threat as it was a negotiating pitch dressed up for domestic political consumption. Why? Because although Trump claimed it was only China demanding a deal, he most desperately wants one too.

Presented with the opportunity, he isn't going to jettison these talks and escalate the trade war further, for as noted the consequences will be economically disastrous. He wants a deal that allows him to say that he won, a deal that calms the uncertainty of markets and makes stocks boom, a deal which he can claim brings jobs back to America and in turn a deal which allows him to pitch success on his initial term for 2020. Do you think for any reason he would instead increase tariffs and sink the American economy in view of a presidential election?

Given this, the trade war is likely to draw to an end. Does this mean renewed hostility to China from the administration will cease? In other areas, likely not. There is no doubt the most scathing anti-China voices will be disappointed as the trade war winds up. They were hoping it was designed to push Beijing to the verge of collapse and end inter-dependency between the two nations, but this is impossible. Instead, they overlooked that ultimately Trump is a person who cares about number one, that is himself.

In the view to 2020, he is shrewd not to press the self-destruct button on his own economy. He is a rational actor who plays politics by creating the image of being irrational. However, anti-China hawks around him and in the Congress will continue to press otherwise for the demonization of Beijing on a whole other range of areas. Economic ties might be stable, but renewed competition will not be.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now noticed the tweet

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China and the United States have achieved substantial progress on specific issues following their latest round of high-level economic and trade talks in Washington, the Chinese delegation said Sunday

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
Commentary: Xi-Trump consensus loadstar for China, U.S. win-win trade agreement
Xinhua| 2019-02-25 11:37:51

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China and the United States are inching ever closer to reaching a mutually beneficial and win-win agreement with substantial progress achieved on specific issues in their latest round of high-level economic and trade talks ending on Sunday in Washington.

While the Chinese delegation said the two countries have made substantial progress on specific issues in such areas as technology transfer, protection of intellectual property rights and non-tariff barriers, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted he "will be delaying" the increase of tariffs on Chinese imports scheduled on March 1.

The past rounds of negotiations were powered by the implementation of the consensus reached by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump, who met in December last year after the closing of the G20 summit in Argentina.

During the three rounds of high-level talks in nearly one month, both Chinese and U.S. presidents met the two negotiating teams to offer guidelines and impetus for future engagements.

Bona fides and practical efforts, which have always been key to settling the disputes between China and the United States in economy and trade, have been fostering growing consensus, patching up differences and been well-received by both countries and the international community.

Frank exchanges have been a catalyst in settling the disputes. It is the best choice for both China and the United States to keep consultations on an equal footing and in the light of the consensus reached by the two presidents before a mutually beneficial and win-win agreement could be reached.

The extension of the latest round of negotiations and the delaying tariff increase on Chinese imports testify to the sincerity, high attention and sense of urgency of both the Chinese and U.S. sides. Yet they also indicate that there are still some differences that need more time to be ironed out.

For all its worth, the past week has been key for the world's two largest economies, as are their future actions. After nearly one year of painstaking negotiations, every step in the last-shot period counts, and any mutually beneficial breakthrough lies in the ability of both sides to keep engagement on an equal footing.

Even with tough nuts to crack in the future, the two sides have no better alternative but to work with each other for their own good and the interest of the whole world. In their efforts to hash out an agreement, China and the United States are better advised to work for the best results while preparing for the worst scenario.

China sees the trade frictions as both challenges and opportunities. To realize its long-term development goal, China needs to secure its core interests and push forward deeper reforms at the same time.

 

[tidalwave]

Xi is trained in Mao school of thoughts, he's not Deng Xiao follower.
Xi doesn't care if China economy GDP surpass US and becomes number 1. He doesnt care for China opening up.

He wants China to be Tech, Food, Energy , Economy Independent.

The current rural program demonstrates that. Farmers stay at rural area to develope instead of becoming migrant workers and crowding the cities,

He wants to produce less for export and concentrate more on food production for security.

Therefore, lesser manufacturing jobs needed to support the stability of the country, this way China will be less prone to US trade blackmail in the future.

Again, under Xi everything is pointing to independence a bigger goal than GDP growth

 

[tidalwave]

OK, here's the test question, Trump's strategy is to trade war pause and hopefully economy will be up and he get reelected in 2020. His trade war will continue after 2020.
During this trade war pause, will China gain something out of this??

 

[Biscuits]

OK, here's the test question, Trump's strategy is to trade war pause and hopefully economy will be up and he get reelected in 2020. His trade war will continue after 2020.
During this trade war pause, will China gain something out of this??

No. No country enjoys getting it’s face repeatedly bashed in. The US economy won’t be able to threaten China’s any more in 2020 than it could in 2018.

He will seek an easy victory somewhere else.