Trade War with China

[Anlsvrthng]

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Arlington, VA – December 14, 2018 –
New tariff data shows the current Section 301 tariffs on imported Chinese products now cost the technology industry an additional $1 billion per month, according to Consumer Technology Association (CTA) data, compiled and analyzed by The Trade Partnership. Tariffs on CTA-identified tech products jumped to $1.3 billion in October, over seven times the amount from the same month a year ago. The tech industry has also paid $122 million more on 5G-related imports alone in October; in contrast, this time last year the industry paid very low tariffs – $65,000.

I think I haven't seen it yet.

 

[advill]

Presidents Xi & Trump will be negotiating soon, before the 90-day US deadline ends. The outcome cannot be predicted, but like most major/difficult negotiations, expected trade-offs by both sides are expected. There will be NO winner if the talks failed, & only serious problems facing BOTH countries & their peoples. Major hurdles could also be overcome with pressures from internal & external forces. Let there be PEACE ON EARTH & GOODWILL TO MEN.

 

[tidalwave]

If they do it overnight then yes. IF they do it slowly no.
Interesting, president T slowed down the increase of tariffs : P



That is not enough to absorb that magnitude of workers.

China needs more and bigger projects.

And all of that will not prevent the local governments/ politically connected companies to go into bankruptcy.

No, that project is deemed as biggest project of the Chinese civilization, past, present and future.

Not enough? it can absorb upward to 200 million new folks into the area.

Let local government bankrupt.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

No, that project is deemed as biggest project of the Chinese civilization, past, present and future.

Not enough? it can absorb upward to 200 million new folks into the area.

Let local government bankrupt.

Agree, get clean the lame, give the resources to the fittest.


However the channel project is off from the population centres, means only limited amount of people can work there .

Like the Panama canal .

The idea is good, but it is more likely a long project with few million worker than a short with few 100 million.

But there are million other projects.

And the main thing is they have to force the companies to fight for workers, and let the inefficient ones to sink.

But usually this mentality works in wartime.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

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"While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China," Cook said in a letter to investors. "In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 percent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad."

 

[Anlsvrthng]

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Chinese state bank chief warns against buying property now ‘because there’s no money to be made’

• China Construction Bank chairman suggests market may not rise much further and warns that investors may become ‘trapped’

...
“There’s no money to be made if you buy a flat nowadays. If you insist on buying a home, aren’t you trapped at the high price level?” Tian told a forum organised by Peking University’s Guanghua school of management.

The warning by Tian, who is an alternate member of the Communist Party Central Committee, came at a time when the country is in heated debate about the role of the property market – whether it will lead to an bust or whether it can help shore up the economy.
....
The value of outstanding real estate loans – including mortgage and development lending – reached 38 trillion yuan (US$5.5 trillion) by the end of September 2018, or 28 per cent of total lending, according to government data.
...
The combined value of properties in China, Tian warned, has reached US$40 trillion, larger than the US$30 trillion in the United States.

While many property speculators in the West prefer to rent out their properties to ensure a rental income, in China it is more common to keep newbuilds empty because lived-in properties lose some of their value.
....
The latest China household finance survey conducted by the Southwest University of Finance and Economics, which was published last week, found that the number of vacant urban homes in China has risen to 65 million units in 2017 from 42 million units in 2011, with the vacancy ratio rising to 21.4 per cent from 18.4 per cent in the period.
....
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the average living area of Chinese urban residents already reached 36.6 square meters in 2016.

USA mortgage loan is around 15 trillion, vs 31.8 trillion stock, China has 5.5 trillion cs 40 trillion stock.

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Interestingly third of the mortgage in the hand of federal financial institutions.

So, we can say that in China the housing prices can collapse to the quarter without endanger the financial system.

The households will loose lot of wealth of course .

Interestingly, over 8 trillion of housing is empty, bigger than the whole mortgage pool.

 

[Tam]

Exactly why the economy had to cool down, and it had to cool down, or a gradual process of doing so, and it needed to have started some years ago not now. Cheap credit has made a bubble. This is China's version or turn for economic correction. Something like this is also due to happen to the US.

 

[advill]

Re: Trump's Trade War is like "Sniping his own nose to spite his "ignorant" face". I believe that although he is damned stubborn, he will strike deals with China. No choice as US Companies like Apple are facing serious problems in China ..... Hwa Huei is an up and coming Mobile Phone Competitor with hi-tech features.

 

[Ultra]

Really ? This is the kind of level of discussion we are seeing on this thread ? To say that China is responsible for countries biting off more than what they can chew in the OBOR deal is like saying the booze seller is responsible for the drunkard's alcohol poisoning. These countries willingly took on debts that they couldn't pay off in the end. While I am of the opinion that China should offer more lenient debt restructuring methods for these countries instead of just the usual mortgage/repossession route, I have 0 sympathy for such countries who signed the dotted line without reading the fine print first.
It is like Greek financial crisis 2.0, when Athens partied way too hard on easy Euro and when Brussels came knocking.
And people who are pinning for a Chinese collapse better heed the saying "be careful what one wishes for", the world was exceptionally lucky that the USSR dissolved without much fuss. The next power shift might not be so calm.
More soever, trade and investments are 2 fundamentally different beasts. Even though they do often go hand in hand from time to time. A country can refuse to take on investments, especially if they are offered by one side only. But to cut off trade, especially if that country is your biggest trading partner in both export and import, is easier said then done. The US has certainly shown that to be the case, seeing that it's Chinese imports actually hid an all time high last year despite ongoing trade/investment disputes.

You have to ask yourself, if out of the 72 countries that participated in the OBOR loan program, 23 are in danger of being "debt trapped" and 8 are in serious debt traps they can't get out of which includes China's "all weather friend" Pakistan - that's an astounding 33%! What kind of bank will be willingly going out to debt trap people with this kind of statistics? It would be criminal if they do that. To say that it is a scam to ONLY enrich China is not far off the mark.

Wake up. China is only looking at short term gain it is so completely short sighted I would say it is practically blind. They are burning their closest allies and friends and soon if those wakes up to those facts China will have no one to trade with. Trust is the easiest thing in the world to loose, and the hardest thing in the world to get back. Think about it.

 

[vincent]

BAHAHAHA. Dump the US Treasury.
DUMP THE US TREASURY you say.

That would actually be great for the US. Once China dumps all of the US Treasury bonds and the bond market collapses, US Government would then buy back those treasury at discounted price, that means China ABSORBS THE LOSS while US GAINS WITHOUT PAYING FOR THE LOSS.

DUMB ASSES.

@Deino @siegecrossbow