Is the US shooting itself in the foot by banning Huawei?

[AndrewS]

Note that US has set the precedence. US persons travelling to China, HK and Macau will be fair game and this can serve as the justification.

No formal charges has been made. Only allegations that she faces charges. BIGLY SAD

It's much worse that that.

The US set a precedent for extradition in a third country.
Imagine if China passes a domestic law which makes trading with Taiwan a crime.

Now China can extradite US executives if they travel to Canada or anywhere else in the world like Australia, Europe, Japan, Korea, etc
And for that matter, every other country in the world can apply their own laws globally.

It will make for an ugly ugly world.

 

[AndrewS]

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This occurred this year, but we already have major clue on this a few years before when Single's Day in China far outspends Black Friday + Cyber Monday combined in the US.

The point is that previously the US could rely on the sheer size of its domestic market to create huge companies. They could then buy out their smaller foreign competitors or bankrupt them. Look at how Didi refused to be bought by Uber. Then Uber tried to outspend Didi and make them bankrupt. This worked in every other market, but it failed in China because Didi was too big.

But what happens if China has a larger domestic market, greater R&D spending, and a 1+ year advantage in 5G technology?

It will be Chinese tech companies that will be buying out their smaller foreign competitors, or bankrupting them - and becoming global tech giants.

 

[Klon]

The issue is that the premises are not true. Huawei isn't the only option for 5G, the competition won't be delayed, China doesn't have the biggest market or the most developed Internet ecosystem and so on.

 

[Tam]

The point is that previously the US could rely on the sheer size of its domestic market to create huge companies. They could then buy out their smaller foreign competitors or bankrupt them. Look at how Didi refused to be bought by Uber. Then Uber tried to outspend Didi and make them bankrupt. This worked in every other market, but it failed in China because Didi was too big.

But what happens if China has a larger domestic market, greater R&D spending, and a 1+ year advantage in 5G technology?

It will be Chinese tech companies that will be buying out their smaller foreign competitors, or bankrupting them - and becoming global tech giants.

Yes of course. And by the way, another indicator of this is when GM sells more cars in China than in the US.

He puts all of it in a video.

He also further goes to elaborate, that once China is the bigger market, all things are going to be catered to the Chinese market, from your GM cars to your Boeing jets.

Telecom battle needs to be explained in the context of TDD vs. FDD technologies. This goes way back to the previous decade, when China, or to be more exact, China Mobile defied the rest of the world by pursuing TD-SCDMA, a completely home grown 3D that uses TDD (Time Division Duplex) as its network frame. The rest of the world pursued an FDD (Frequency Division Duplex) based standard called W-CDMA, also known as 3G GSM. Because China Mobile insisted on TD based technology, Huawei, ZTE, and the foreign companies contracted to China Mobile, such as Nokia and Ericsson, also began to develop TD technologies.

When LTE came in, LTE was the inheritor and evolution of these previous technologies, FDD LTE vs. TDD LTE. There are advantages and disadvantages to both, but TDD is superior for higher density urban environments --- like Chinese cities. With 5G coming, China is ahead and has done all the groundwork on TDD technologies.

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[AndrewS]

The issue is that the premises are not true. Huawei isn't the only option for 5G, the competition won't be delayed, China doesn't have the biggest market or the most developed Internet ecosystem and so on.

Your statements are incorrect.

British Telecom have publicly stated that Huawei is the only true 5G supplier.
The consensus is that Huawei is at least 1 year ahead of anyone else.

• Online retail in China is twice the size of the USA
• Mobile payments is 50x larger
• In ride-hailing, Didi does twice as many daily trips as everyone else combined.

If you look for it, you can find a lot more examples in other industries.

 

[solarz]

We live in the internet of things these days. 4G, 4GLTE Perminate all of our lives deeply. More and more land cable is being cut and more and more we live in the cloud as does military and agency security.
Having a more secure network is critical for infrastructure.
5G is that next big step, however security is just as critical as speed and quality.
On both sides of the Pacific there is deep worry about the Security of there telecoms.
Already the PRC showed that degree of worry about the Security of American products remember the uproar about when Xi' s wide was shown with an IPhone ( still the most popular phone in China).
Is allowing a foreign maker with a questionable status already in regards to PRC intrest to have a virtual monopoly over key industry infrastructure in the PRC best interest?
Is allowing a foreign maker with a questionable status already in regards to American intrest to have a virtual monopoly over key industry infrastructure in the American best interest?
I phrase the question. Twice because if yes to one version then Yes should be to the other.

Networks are the heart of national security these days. They touch every aspect of a nation, civil, financial, governmental, security, transportation, law enforcement all of it. Including National intelligence and defence networks.

Even basic services like heating, electrical, food, water and sewage it all has some attachment to the tendrils to the cloud and network.
If the network is not "Secure" than it's all a house of cards.

Huawei may have the 5G advantage but is the juice worth the squeeze?
Is installing a high speed telecom system worth it if there is the potential that that network can become the very harbinger of its own collapse? If the data on it can be compromised or if the network can be used as a weapon?

No. Should be the answer.

Even if that is just paranoia on my part.
There is another side of this story. Huawei' s CFO and the Daughter of its founder has been in a Canadian jail awaiting the decision on whether she gets a trip South of the boarder to US custity. Why? Because Huawei allegedly was circumventing Iranian sanctions. By using the Huawei name and brand to shuffle loans and money's from banks to an Iranian branding. If true than already Huawei has shown it's doesn't care about the American interest or security or sanction. And as such would be sanctioned it's self.
Now yes American companies have been caught with there hand in the Iranian cookie jar from time to time. But does letting this case slide help anything? No.
If she goes to extradition. One can imagine Huawei will be less inclined to offer services.

If the US wants to be paranoid and ban Huawei's 5G, that is their prerogative. However, they're doing far more than that. They're lobbying all their allies into banning Huawei as well, and in addition, trying to destroy or impede China's technological progress via a trade war.

This demonstrates clearly that it's more than just security concerns over a foreign technology, this is about technological dominance.

 

[localizer]

It's politics, security, and economics.
China was smart to block google and US social media which can be sources for stirring social unrest. Especially when there's information overload and the average human is dumb as a brick.
Can't deny that without this step, there wouldn't be the Tencent/Baidu of today.

 

[s002wjh]

Your statements are incorrect.

British Telecom have publicly stated that Huawei is the only true 5G supplier.
The consensus is that Huawei is at least 1 year ahead of anyone else.

• Online retail in China is twice the size of the USA
• Mobile payments is 50x larger
• In ride-hailing, Didi does twice as many daily trips as everyone else combined.

If you look for it, you can find a lot more examples in other industries.

Problem is Huawei and zte rely on US tech. If US delay some those export tech it will hurt and slowdown Huawei 5G. China right now still can't design and manufacturing top tier IC .

 

[AndrewS]

If the US wants to be paranoid and ban Huawei's 5G, that is their prerogative. However, they're doing far more than that. They're lobbying all their allies into banning Huawei as well, and in addition, trying to destroy or impede China's technological progress via a trade war.

This demonstrates clearly that it's more than just security concerns over a foreign technology, this is about technological dominance.

It's interesting to see what has happened in South Korea with 5G. They have 3 mobile phone networks, one of which is using Huawei equipment.

LG Uplus, South Korea’s third largest telco, has announced its intention to use Huawei’s equipment for its 5G network. The operator has a history with Huawei for its previous generation networks – so it could be a matter of loyalty.

Excluding vendors from a market leads to increased prices due to a reduction in competition. It’s believed South Korean operators would be paying around 20 - 30 percent higher in such a scenario.

South Korea is among the leading nations in connectivity, boasting some of the fastest mobile and broadband speeds. The country is expected to be one of the first in the world to deploy 5G networks.

Huawei’s equipment is among the best in the business. Some experts believe in some areas, such as its MIMO antenna technology, the company is around a year ahead of competitors. A ban of its gear could also be detrimental to network performance.

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[Klon]

Your statements are incorrect.

British Telecom have publicly stated that Huawei is the only true 5G supplier.

A BT representative said that at a Huawei event, so there was room for flattery or exaggeration.

The consensus is that Huawei is at least 1 year ahead of anyone else.

The consensus among whom?

5G rollout is supposed to happen next year in the US.

• Online retail in China is twice the size of the USA
• Mobile payments is 50x larger
• In ride-hailing, Didi does twice as many daily trips as everyone else combined.

If you look for it, you can find a lot more examples in other industries.

I doubt any of the bullet point are true. Maybe you can provide sources.

Presently, American Internet companies are also dominant in most countries outside their home market.