Trade War with China

[gelgoog]

I think this is a bit of an exaggeration really. I think China can be self-sufficient in terms of food production if they devote the resources to do it. There are plenty of techniques to grow food in arid soils which China has plenty of. Also given cheap enough energy it is possible to use vertical farming as is done in Japan. The Chinese state has also been promoting further consumption of potatoes in the North, which have much more productivity per area than wheat.
Streams and water can be diverted and even without diverting them crops like Sorghum and Corn grow with little water if all you want is to feed cattle.
I think what China does have is major issues with pollution and quality control. Those can be solved with technology and the technology is also multiple use. For example quite often you can filter the water and use the residue as fertilizer after it has been sterilized.

I have often heard that Chinese have had issues adapting their taste to these new ingredients, but Singapore does fine with them and there are a lot of people of Chinese descent in there. The problem is as easy to fix as to have TV shows which show people how to cook with those ingredients. Or to give away free recipes when you sell the produce. Little things like that.

Besides that, China has found itself other agricultural sources like South America. To a large degree the USA is self-sufficient in terms of the basic produce, they only import beef for the most part from those regions AFAIK. Brazil has complained time and time again to the WTO about US tariffs on cane sugar for example. Then there is Russia and Australia which have vast unused areas of land and which are open to foreign investment in there. The Chinese are already entering these places.

I think given recent Chinese semiconductor investments their military will be basically self-sufficient and have leading edge electronics over the next 5 years.
This is something which should give everyone some pause. While sanctions will keep China behind in process technology, military weapons typically do not use the latest process technology in the USA, they never did because of the gestation time of the military programs and the need for long term support of a product. With regards to the consumer market, other than 5G technology, which is infested with patents, the Chinese have the ability to build much of the technology with their own industries. Where they lack is in the memory and storage sectors. But they have plenty of CPU design expertise as is shown in the supercomputer projects and even in the commercial industry with native smartphone chip designs.

I think it is naive of the current US government to assume that China will not surpass their own GDP even with tariffs given the disparity in population that both countries have. Even when Japan's economy stalled it only did so when it reached the same levels of GDP/capita as the USA. There is plenty of infrastructure investment which still needs to be done in China and the economy will continue to grow over the next decade in my opinion. Much of the citywide coal usage will need to be replaced with nuclear power, natural gas, and renewables. This means not only power plants but also electric and power transmission grid investment.

Also China has been preparing for these sanctions for years now. They have done bilateral deals with several countries to exchange their currencies for the Yuan without using the Dollar as an intermediate currency for example and the US sanctions will only accelerate this process. Also, unlike the EU, China is one nation, they will have a unified and necessarily large military force. Regardless of what the USA wants or not.

 

[Icmer]

I have often heard that Chinese have had issues adapting their taste to these new ingredients, but Singapore does fine with them and there are a lot of people of Chinese descent in there. The problem is as easy to fix as to have TV shows which show people how to cook with those ingredients. Or to give away free recipes when you sell the produce. Little things like that.

Do you believe Chinese haven't incorporated crops like potatoes and sorghum into their cuisine? How do you think the Qing were able to experience such a massive population boom?

Regarding corn: few cultures outside North America have felt the need to adjust their palate to corn. Anyway, I doubt the food self-sufficiency issue will ever necessitate such drastic measures...

 

[AssassinsMace]

An excellent reply... multiple likes.

What do you think China would be like if it was totally devoid of American made goods.... and culture you know NBA music movies etc.?

Thanks. Devoid is probably impossible. These days things revolving around popular culture are easily obtainable since much of it is digital. Any physical products... most of it China already makes which mean they can make counterfeits. What's more important is not the Chinese are being denied American goods. It's the US that won't be making money.

 

[Faithlock]

Not quite sure this is the right thread for China semiconductor problem. If not, please move it to the correct thread.

Richard Chang, the founder of China's largest and most advanced semiconductor manufacturing company, SMIC, was recently interviewed by a Chinese TV program.

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A quick translation is as follows. Reporter asked why does China has problem of not having enough semiconductor talent considering the government has been concentrate on this area for many years. Richard said that SMIC was training as many as they could, but once they being trained, many of them are being lured by their competitors. Many of the talents in SMIC were lured by companies in Singapore, Korea, and even USA.

 

[AndrewS]

I think this is a bit of an exaggeration really. I think China can be self-sufficient in terms of food production if they devote the resources to do it. There are plenty of techniques to grow food in arid soils which China has plenty of. Also given cheap enough energy it is possible to use vertical farming as is done in Japan. The Chinese state has also been promoting further consumption of potatoes in the North, which have much more productivity per area than wheat.
Streams and water can be diverted and even without diverting them crops like Sorghum and Corn grow with little water if all you want is to feed cattle.
I think what China does have is major issues with pollution and quality control. Those can be solved with technology and the technology is also multiple use. For example quite often you can filter the water and use the residue as fertilizer after it has been sterilized.

I have often heard that Chinese have had issues adapting their taste to these new ingredients, but Singapore does fine with them and there are a lot of people of Chinese descent in there. The problem is as easy to fix as to have TV shows which show people how to cook with those ingredients. Or to give away free recipes when you sell the produce. Little things like that.

Besides that, China has found itself other agricultural sources like South America. To a large degree the USA is self-sufficient in terms of the basic produce, they only import beef for the most part from those regions AFAIK. Brazil has complained time and time again to the WTO about US tariffs on cane sugar for example. Then there is Russia and Australia which have vast unused areas of land and which are open to foreign investment in there. The Chinese are already entering these places.

I think given recent Chinese semiconductor investments their military will be basically self-sufficient and have leading edge electronics over the next 5 years.
This is something which should give everyone some pause. While sanctions will keep China behind in process technology, military weapons typically do not use the latest process technology in the USA, they never did because of the gestation time of the military programs and the need for long term support of a product. With regards to the consumer market, other than 5G technology, which is infested with patents, the Chinese have the ability to build much of the technology with their own industries. Where they lack is in the memory and storage sectors. But they have plenty of CPU design expertise as is shown in the supercomputer projects and even in the commercial industry with native smartphone chip designs.

I think it is naive of the current US government to assume that China will not surpass their own GDP even with tariffs given the disparity in population that both countries have. Even when Japan's economy stalled it only did so when it reached the same levels of GDP/capita as the USA. There is plenty of infrastructure investment which still needs to be done in China and the economy will continue to grow over the next decade in my opinion. Much of the citywide coal usage will need to be replaced with nuclear power, natural gas, and renewables. This means not only power plants but also electric and power transmission grid investment.

Also China has been preparing for these sanctions for years now. They have done bilateral deals with several countries to exchange their currencies for the Yuan without using the Dollar as an intermediate currency for example and the US sanctions will only accelerate this process. Also, unlike the EU, China is one nation, they will have a unified and necessarily large military force. Regardless of what the USA wants or not.

I think keeping the target of 95% self sufficiency in staple foods in peacetime is fine.
In wartime, there's enough food stockpiled and it's straightforward to increase production to more than compensate for the loss in imports.

And remember the key drivers in this trade and technology war.

Earlier this year, consumer retail demand in China for 2018 was projected at USD 6 Trillion, which would represent a bigger retail market for products than the USA.
The NSF also projected that in 2018/2019, Chinese R&D spending would pass that of the USA. So in the long-run, China should be able to shift to a hi-tech economy and escape the middle-income trap.

On both R&D spending and retail demand, China is growing much faster than the USA, as would be expected given it is still a developing economy in many respects.

So China should be able to produce world-class domestic alternatives to any foreign import, given some time.
And China should be able to lead in new emerging industries as well, because there is no entrenched competition.

Plus if a country has to choose between trading with China or the USA in a trade war or trade agreement, which is the more attractive market?

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Exactly technology transfer is two way street and American licencor benefited the most as this video explained
So all those charges of technology theft is hearsay at best No documented charges has been filed sofar in WTO

 

[ougoah]

None have been raised in WTO so far because US does not hold hegemony over WTO although it may one day. They refuse to present their case because baseless slander and accusations do not hold up in court when the plaintiff has zero evidence, so in the uncivilised tabloids this will remain.

The only genuine grievance they have is the "unfair" trade practice done by China where the authorities force tech companies wishing to make money through the Chinese market, partner up with local businesses who will eventually get their hands on whatever technologies they were after. Almost all of this is commercial not military. This practice isn't done by the USA but that's because they are not in a position where other businesses posses better technology and wish to make billions through the American market. If they were, chances are they would too. It is leveraging what advantage you have.

The businesses making billions from Chinese market are happy to comply even if they would rather not but the alternative is to not have 1 billion extra potential consumers. They participate willingly because they see the dollar signs. Therefore it is fair. They can choose to not make all that extra income from >1B Chinese consumers and a very possible consequence of this is that they lose the ability to remain competitive and go the way of Kodak, because they have missed out on so much income. A simple example would be a high end Mercedes car. Mercedes is a great car maker (let's just assume this is true) not because Germans are great carmakers (at least not the absolute reason). That would be a logical fallacy. It is because the market allows them to maintain their position. They are building the next generation of brilliant whatever classes, thanks (IN PART!) to all the massive income they have made from Chinese consumers buying their product. This means their success was partly made by the market. If those billions from Chinese money were paid to Cadillac instead, Mercedes wouldn't have as much money for research, design, testing etc and would have made a comparatively inferior product. So China's deal is if you want all that wealth, I need something from you. Leveraging my population and market power to get some commercial technologies. It is the only sensible thing to do and as a socialist country, it is only natural, like a glorified trade union's bargain.

The US can piss up a stink as much as they want, but it ain't gonna change. They can take their companies elsewhere and everyone gets set back a bit but they have only shot their own foot as badly as China's. Difference is it's too little too late. Any core technology base that would have been "stolen" through this mutually agreed uncoerced setup, has been domesticated by now. The only lag China really has is a few niche high tech sectors that require more hands on experience and trial and error. Military industries too of course.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

I think keeping the target of 95% self sufficiency in staple foods in peacetime is fine.
In wartime, there's enough food stockpiled and it's straightforward to increase production to more than compensate for the loss in imports.

And remember the key drivers in this trade and technology war.

Earlier this year, consumer retail demand in China for 2018 was projected at USD 6 Trillion, which would represent a bigger retail market for products than the USA.
The NSF also projected that in 2018/2019, Chinese R&D spending would pass that of the USA. So in the long-run, China should be able to shift to a hi-tech economy and escape the middle-income trap.

On both R&D spending and retail demand, China is growing much faster than the USA, as would be expected given it is still a developing economy in many respects.

So China should be able to produce world-class domestic alternatives to any foreign import, given some time.
And China should be able to lead in new emerging industries as well, because there is no entrenched competition.

Plus if a country has to choose between trading with China or the USA in a trade war or trade agreement, which is the more attractive market?

Key data for wartime economy is the ratio of meat vs corps calories (1:10) and the productivity increase due to ammonium nitrate (100%)

So, in wartime the meat production be reduced, it gives ten times more calories - so if it was ten percent of the average calories , then the available calories amount double, at the same time the transfer of chemical industry from ammonium nitrate to explosives/ rocket propellant will cut back the yield to half.

So, if a country import 10% of food, but it is the meat, and 90% of the leftover is crops, then the given country will starve in a war.

This happened in Germany/Europe during 2nd WW, the biggest obstacle for the Fischer troops was the constrained supply of coal, due to the malnutrition miners ( they received less than 2000 calories, instead of the require 3000+

 

[ougoah]

Key data for wartime economy is the ratio of meat vs corps calories (1:10) and the productivity increase due to ammonium nitrate (100%)

So, in wartime the meat production be reduced, it gives ten times more calories - so if it was ten percent of the average calories , then the available calories amount double, at the same time the transfer of chemical industry from ammonium nitrate to explosives/ rocket propellant will cut back the yield to half.

So, if a country import 10% of food, but it is the meat, and 90% of the leftover is crops, then the given country will starve in a war.

This happened in Germany/Europe during 2nd WW, the biggest obstacle for the Fischer troops was the constrained supply of coal, due to the malnutrition miners ( they received less than 2000 calories, instead of the require 3000+

Not really worth planning to the nth degree. Today's conventional wars are short and non-conventional wars even shorter. The real emphasis would be placed on avoiding war. Once war happens, there will be little need for calorie charts and rations because they won't go through a week's worth of food before there's no-one left to eat them. I cannot think of a serious conventional conflict between China and USA that won't end either immediately with minor damages to one or both sides, or escalate immediately to threats of MAD and then actual MAD if not stopped. So it would be far more effective to spend that time and those resources on improving those SLBMs and hypersonic delivery vehicles. China needs 096 boomers more than it needs food structuring for war. Although your post is interesting and I'm not arguing it but war planning has definitely changed.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Not really worth planning to the nth degree. Today's conventional wars are short and non-conventional wars even shorter. The real emphasis would be placed on avoiding war. Once war happens, there will be little need for calorie charts and rations because they won't go through a week's worth of food before there's no-one left to eat them. I cannot think of a serious conventional conflict between China and USA that won't end either immediately with minor damages to one or both sides, or escalate immediately to threats of MAD and then actual MAD if not stopped. So it would be far more effective to spend that time and those resources on improving those SLBMs and hypersonic delivery vehicles. China needs 096 boomers more than it needs food structuring for war. Although your post is interesting and I'm not arguing it but war planning has definitely changed.

There are more options on the spectrum.

And we don't know.
Maybe the US/China willing to go very far with war without going to MAD.