Is China the regional power?

[Deleted member 675]

Russia-China axis is the one I still see the most possible, and the one current trends seem to point the most.

Just because it is the "most possible" doesn't mean it is probable. The Russians will get into bed with almost anyone when it comes to the economy or arms sales - but not direct military intervention. I don't think they'd risk their necks for China unless they were threatened as well. And I simply don't see China being attacked with a mass invasion, which would be the sort of thing that would require Russian action. They won't care if China gets a bloody nose/loses face. In fact they might like it, as they could rack up the post-conflict arms sales.

Of course if you're just talking about "general co-operation" then that's a different kettle of fish.

 

[crobato]

The Russians might intervene not because they are buddies buddies to the Chinese but because they think for whoever is attacking the Chinese, they might be next in the list. China getting a bloody nose isn't good for Russian armed sales, because the implication is verification that Russian arms suck and if the Chinese rearm, they won't do it with Russian stuff anymore. So their global image is bad and the Chinese will buy even less.

Besides its not just arms sales, but the trade of all forms of goods across the border. Russia also sees China an important customer for its oil and mineral resources and China sees Russia as an indepensible source for that. Finally, having foreign forces stationed in northern China and facing the Russian southern border is something the Russians will not like to see.

While this scenario is not possible in the short term, in the long term it may be. The countries you may consider benign today may be not be as benign in the future, especially when resources run short. The Russians and the Chinese are thinking in the long term. Right now there is no need to form a power bloc but if power blocs are setup against both, then even unlikely bedfollows can form one out of necessity.

 

[AmiGanguli]

China, Russia, and to a lesser extent India also want to take (or retake) their places in the world as major powers. In Chinese foreign policy terms, they are interested in working towards a "multi-polar" world.

Since the U.S. is the currently the dominant power by far (a uni-polar world), all of these countries are at least subtly at odds with the U.S. China doesn't threaten Russia, and a strong China helps to loosen the U.S. hold on power, indirectly benefiting Russia. The converse also applies. This makes the two countries natural allies.

As Crobato mentioned, nobody is going to directly challenge the U.S. in the near term, but things can change.

 

[Violet Oboe]

Very much depends on the next moves of the weakened but certainly not discouraged Bush jr. administration; if Washington is going to attack Iran next spring China and Russia will indeed create some kind of tangible strategic alliance since Putin and Hu will have no choice but drawing ´a last line in the sand´. Interestingly Bush was demonstratively friendly with Putin and Hu in their encounters in the last two weeks and tried probably to lure them into supporting ´tough´Iran sanctions as a prelude for an US attack on Tehran (like in the Iraq case Washington would use every eventually coerced UNSC resolution as a legitimation for military action).

The whole thing could develop even nastier if Israel attacks in conjunction (permission and support) with the US and uses tactical nuclear weapons against iranian military/industrial sites. After the breaking of the ´nuclear taboo´ (never a taboo in israeli doctrine though!) Moscow and Beijing will have to bond together simply for avoiding of being further marginalized and threatened by a uncontrollable US-led axis of aggression. (Fourtunately this kind of scenario is quite unlikely but certainly not impossible!:coffee

After all messing up with Mr. Putin seems to get more and more dangerous not only for Moscows potential adversaries (China also has to consider Russia´s interests carefully!) but also for terrorists and defectors like Yandarbijev or Litvinenko who encounter explosive ´car accidents´ or drop dead after getting mysteriously ill even in neatly CCTV (and MI5) controlled London . (Maybe that Putin already has decided to go ahead with a third term of office and that some kind of a new cold war with the US and her allies will emerge inevitably in the next years anyway; but in this case he will need a strong ally at his side and that is certainly China! )

 

[Deleted member 675]

The Russians might intervene not because they are buddies buddies to the Chinese but because they think for whoever is attacking the Chinese, they might be next in the list.

As I said, that would require China being on the receiving end of an invasion. Most of the likely conflicts over the coming decades would be limited operations - such as a naval clash with Japan. The only big thing would be war with Taiwan, which would be mostly limited to the island itself. Regardless of whether or not the US get involved, China would not suffer an invasion. There would be absolutely nothing for Russia to fear, in regards to it being "next on the list". So it would not get directly involved in such conflicts.

China getting a bloody nose isn't good for Russian armed sales, because the implication is verification that Russian arms suck and if the Chinese rearm, they won't do it with Russian stuff anymore. So their global image is bad and the Chinese will buy even less.

Now that's complete nonsense. China has a fair amount of old equipment. Now if the new Russian gear couldn't do the job, that would be a fair statement. But for the Chinese to blame Russia because it's newer purchases didn't make up for the rest would be ludicrous.

Besides its not just arms sales, but the trade of all forms of goods across the border. Russia also sees China an important customer for its oil and mineral resources and China sees Russia as an indepensible source for that.

Erm, there are other countries in the world that would buy Russian resources, you know. And a loss of trade wouldn't be worth attacking the US/Japan over - that would affect the economy even more.

Finally, having foreign forces stationed in northern China and facing the Russian southern border is something the Russians will not like to see.

Why are you talking about having forces stationed in Northern China? That is so unlikely it doesn't warrant even considering, unless China had gone into meltdown and required UN peacekeepers.

While this scenario is not possible in the short term, in the long term it may be. The countries you may consider benign today may be not be as benign in the future, especially when resources run short. The Russians and the Chinese are thinking in the long term. Right now there is no need to form a power bloc but if power blocs are setup against both, then even unlikely bedfollows can form one out of necessity.

Thing is that if any countries became aggressive over resources, China would be one to consider going that way. The Russians could have to worry about China, given it's the one power on its border that could cause it trouble. So just as you could theorise about China and Russia joining together out of necessity, one could theorise about Russia forming an alliance against China. Of course Russia isn't worried about that at the moment, but neither is it worried about other countries doing the same.

I prefer to think of more likely scenarios, because if you start to hypothesise about what could happen way off into the future there are so many more variables, as I pointed out in the above paragraph.

 

[Kongo]

Without the use of current geostrategic outlook as a basis upon which one conducts a debate of this sort, any position is tenable. With Crobato's 'Russia could ally with China because it could be next on the list', one could next say that India could join the alliance, then you could next say that (choose whatever country you want) would join, and voila! before you know it you have a global coalition!

 

[Deleted member 675]

Without the use of current geostrategic outlook as a basis upon which one conducts a debate of this sort, any position is tenable. With Crobato's 'Russia could ally with China because it could be next on the list', one could next say that India could join the alliance, then you could next say that (choose whatever country you want) would join, and voila! before you know it you have a global coalition!

Precisely, you have to look at what is probable now or in the near future - otherwise you can come up with almost any scenario you want.

 

[adeptitus]

I'd point out that almost every country on or near China's border, with exception to both Koreas, would benefit strategtically from a weaker China.

However the goals and expectations of Russia and India would differ. Russia would benefit from a weaker China that becomes dependent on Russia, but not if China was completely defeated and become US-occupied territory.

India would benefit from the downfall of the PRC regime, at which point I'd expect them to start marching into Tibet to "liberate" them under Indian dominion. After that the Indian navy and economic sphere will start creeping toward Vietnam, then Taiwan.

S. Korea would be very unhappy at the thought of US-Japan imposed economic sanction on the PRC, plus they may need PRC's backing on any future disputes vs. Japan.

If I were the PRC leadership, I'd considering ditching North Korea (losers) in favor of closer ties to the South (winners). I'd go as far as promising to enter negotiation on parts of the disputed mountain territory between Korea and China, after the Korean reunification.


As for Japan, they have a few territorial disputes with others and it may be possible for the PRC to ally with other East Asian neighbors to shake the Japanese government. These actions include:

* Officially support S. Korea's claim to Dokdo
* Pass law to change all maps from "Sea of Japan" to "East Sea" (has this been done already?)
* Support Taiwan's claim to Daoyutai (under "Taiwan province administration")
* Support Russia's claim and hold to Sakhalin & Kurile
* In exchange for the above, ask everyone to jointly declare that we refuse to recongize Japan's claim to Okino-Tori-Shima and send a ship in symbolic violation of Japan's claim. The Philippines might be interested too because it'd open an area close to them for exploitation.

The goal here is to make Shintaro Ishihara foam at the mouth and have a heart attack. Then quietly approach the Japanese government and offer to "quit it" if they'd take a more centerist/neutral position on any PRC-US dispute. If they refuse, well, expect to see some joint PRC-Philippine/Russian/Korean/Taiwanese drilling/fishing fleets off Okino-tori very soon.

 

[crobato]

That's exactly what I was thinking. A Sino-Russian alliance would start this way, with the two countries backing up each other on territorial claims, trade disputes, global and UN issues. You can see this with Iran, Iraq and N. Korea where their policies are locked in step with each other.

 

[Schumacher]

I'd point out that almost every country on or near China's border, with exception to both Koreas, would benefit strategtically from a weaker China.

.......

This applies to most countries really. eg, US woudn't like it too much if Canada or Mexico, or most South American countries, become too strong. Nor would UK or France like it if Germany strengthens much more etc etc.

BTW, many thanks to the mods for un-banning me. I've indeed been logging in from different ISPs as the Webmaster said, definitely did not use multiple accounts to spam as alleged for which I was originally banned.