ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Tuesday at 3:44 PM
Sunday at 4:21 PM
and, interestingly, Turkish advancements have been minimal so far: ...
... and from what I now figured in Internet, so far the biggest gain of the Turks came today, which was some hill (approximately marked in blue below) overlooking
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anyway after one week, there're just several small (several square kilometers) areas taken by Turks; I even read Kurds had regained some villages!

as I said above, don't quote this to tell me stuff

I also took a closer look on the distances; they're small:
3a60a63a061a8c1efe98495888e2f966-1.jpg

I haven't heard of any activity in the eastern part like south to
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(it's "Marea" in the above map)
 
US will no longer be providing additional weapons to the Kurds. I guess no Javelin as promised.

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Turkey confirms U.S. promise of ending weapon supplies to Kurds
Source: Xinhua| 2018-01-27 19:43:40|Editor: ZD
ANKARA, Jan. 27 (Xinhua) -- Turkey confirmed Saturday that the
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would no longer provide the
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n Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its armed wing People's Protection Units (YPG) with weapons in Syria.

Turkish Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalin and U.S. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster agreed on the move in a phone call Friday evening, said the Turkish presidency in a statement.

Kalin and McMaster emphasized the necessity of taking into consideration Turkey's legitimate security concerns regarding the situation on its Syrian border.

Both sides have agreed on closer coordination during Turkey's Operation Olive Branch in Afrin to prevent misunderstandings, according to the statement.

The Turkish military launched the cross-border Operation Olive Branch with Free Syrian Army to fight the Syrian Kurdish militia on Jan. 20, targeting the YPG elements in the Kurdish enclave through airstrikes and land forces.

YPG is the military wing of PYD, a group in northern Syria that Ankara has deemed a "terror group" for its links to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
 
How Turkey Twisted Three Words Into a Pretext for Invasion according to DefenseOne:
Ankara said a U.S. plan to train some Syrian Kurds was a threat. So it sent tanks and artillery to kill some others.

The Turkish incursion into northern Syria
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the Trump administration and has
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U.S. and coalition efforts to fight the remnants of ISIS further south. So how did it come about? Turkey said it was forced to move lest the U.S. execute
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to train and arm a 30,000-person, partially Kurdish, police force in Syria. But U.S. commanders on the ground and observers of Turkish foreign affairs say that Ankara’s attack was long planned. The so-called Border Security Force was a pretext.

‘Someone Misspoke’

To understand how we got here, with Turkish forces
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portions of the Kurdish stronghold of Afrin, go back to a December
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that U.S. Army Gen. Joseph Votel, who leads U.S. Central Command, gave to the Associated Press. In the article, Votel describes a program to train members of the local Kurdish and Arab populations in northern Syria, which he calls an essential step to “prevent the resurgence of ISIS” and “help bring control” to the area. Votel is not quoted as saying “border security force” — the author uses the phrase several times.

Skip ahead to January. More reporters are calling about the plan. Around Jan. 14, coalition officials began to circulate details about what had evolved into a more formal entity, a Border Security Force, or BSF. “Currently, there are approximately 230 newly recruited individuals training in the BSF’s inaugural class, with the goal of a final force size of approximately 30,000 over the next several years. Efforts are taken to ensure individuals serve in areas close to their homes. Therefore, the ethnic composition of the force will be relative to the areas in which they serve,” reads a copy of an email sent from Operation Inherent Resolve headquarters to The New York Times, and obtained separately by Defense One.

When
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about this Border Security Force, the Turkish government response was
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. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan called it a
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and promised to
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” it. Washington immediately tried to smooth over tensions with its NATO ally.

On Jan. 17, Pentagon officials disavowed the term that Operation Inherent Resolve HQ had been using just two days earlier. “This is not a new ‘army’ or conventional ‘Border Force,’” read a Defense Department
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That same day, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told reporters in Vancouver, Canada, that
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perpetrated by some unknown official. “It’s unfortunate that the entire situation has been misportrayed, misdescribed; some people misspoke,” Tillerson said.

Army Col. Ryan Dillon, a spokesperson at Combined Joint Task Force, or CJTF Operation Inherent Resolve, said his group was partially to blame. “I think that we, at CJTF, Ryan Dillon, did not do a good job of recognizing the semantics of using the ‘Border Guard’ force,” he said. He called the use of the term a “blindspot in the rollout.”

The term “border force,” Dillon conceded, is generally understood to mean an armed group organized to keep people out of a country. But, he explained, the goal of the BSF in Syria was to stop ISIS fighters from fleeing to Turkey or Iraq, not to keep Turkey out.

The term that CJTF settled on did not fully convey that, he said. But if “Border Security Force” lacked precision, the plan to train local Kurds and Arabs in Syria to prevent an ISIS resurgence was neither new nor secret, and especially not to Turkey, he said.

“We’ve been very open and talked about these internal security forces,” said Dillon, “We’ve trumpeted that…This is not new. It was a natural progression to establish these in areas that are unpopulated as well [as populated centers] because of the threat.”

A Convenient Justification

So Ankara
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the BSF for compelling their invasion. But the Turkish assault has focused on Afrin, where the U.S. isn’t training anyone. That points to a disconnect between the stated reason for the strike and the real one. “We have not operated or conducted operations in Afrin at all. But there are those who have conflated the two, and tried to tie them together. They’re completely separate,” said Dillon.

Scholars who watch the Turkish government say it’s using the BSF as an excuse for activity that it was planning to commence anyway. There’s a Russian connection as well.

“Erdogan has been threatening a military incursion into Afrin for a year but it was delayed because Russia did not give Turkey the green light until now,” said Gonul Tol, the director of the Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies. “The border force story prompted the Russian decision to allow the Turks to mount the attack. Russians are very concerned about a prolonged U.S. presence in Syria.”

Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, added that the attack was long expected. “After all, Afrin has huge symbolic value for the [Kurdish Democratic Union Party] and [People’s Protection Units, or YPG] cause in Syria, and its untouched presence across from the Turkish border was never going to be left alone forever,” he said.

But, Lister said the BSF might have sped up the assault. “As far as Ankara is concerned, the YPG is an armed militia that operates across all of northern Syria, and thus, any American support to the YPG will directly or indirectly strengthen it elsewhere.” He said this helps explain why Turkey is attacking Afrin, a city where, “the YPG lay more vulnerable, especially given Russian indications that it was considering abandoning the group in exchange for other political interests.”
source:
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this thread:
U.S. soldiers are revealing sensitive and dangerous information by jogging

January 28
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noticed through
WP: с помощью социальной сети для спортсменов можно обнаружить военные базы
Подробнее на ТАСС:
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now
Turkey Renews Threat Against US Outpost in Northern Syria
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Turkey renewed threats over the weekend to attack a town in northern Syria where U.S. troops maintain an outpost, despite warnings from President Donald Trump.

In a phone call last Wednesday to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump
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in northern Syria and "avoid any actions that might risk conflict between Turkish and American forces" in the town of Manbij.

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The current drive by Turkish forces against a Kurdish enclave around the town of Afrin, about 60 miles east of Manbij, also "risks undercutting our shared goals in Syria," which is the elimination of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Trump said, according to a readout of the call provided by the White House.

However, Erdogan on Saturday said he planned to "foil games along our borders starting from Manbij," adding that Turkey would "clean our region from this trouble completely."

Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag, who also serves as Ankara's chief spokesman, said, "The United States needs to review its soldiers and elements giving support to terrorists on the ground in such a way as to avoid a confrontation with Turkey."

On Monday, Bozdag said at diplomatic meetings in Ankara, "It is irrational to expect Turkey to overlook the formation of a terror state on its border," Turkey's Anadolu news agency reported.

The "terrorists" he referred to are the U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters of the YPG, or People's Protection Units.

They are the dominant group in the U.S.-armed and -trained Syrian Democratic Forces, which last year took Raqqa, the self-proclaimed ISIS capital, and have cleared most of eastern Syria of ISIS.

On Jan. 20, Turkey launched Operation Olive Branch with a ground assault on the Afrin region, backed by tanks, artillery, drones, fixed-wing aircraft and helicopter gunships. Turkey has charged that its Kilis province has periodically been hit by mortar and artillery fire coming from the Afrin region.

Turkey views the YPG as the armed wing of the PYD, or Democratic Union Party. Turkey also views the PYD as an affiliate of the PKK, or Kurdish Workers Party, which has been labeled a terrorist group by Turkey and the U.S.

Turkey has repeatedly stated that it will not tolerate a Kurdish mini-state along its border, and the situation in the region became even more complicated when the Kurdish-led administration in Afrin called for help from its nominal enemy, the regime of Russian-backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

"We call on the Syrian state to carry out its sovereign obligations toward Afrin and protect its borders with Turkey from attacks of the Turkish occupier," the Afrin Kurds said in a statement on their website.

At a Pentagon briefing last Thursday,
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Lt. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, director of the Joint Staff, said, "We haven't trained or provided equipment for any of the Kurds that are in the Afrin pocket."

He said the U.S. is mainly focused on backing the Syrian Democratic Forces to the south and east in clearing up remaining ISIS holdouts in the middle Euphrates River Valley.

"Turkish operations in Afrin and all operations in Afrin that have the effect of inducing friction into the equation, of making it hard to focus on why we're in Syria -- which is the defeat of ISIS in the Euphrates River Valley, are a negative thing," McKenzie said.

However, "we also recognize Turkey has a legitimate national security interest" in maintaining a safe border area, "and they're very close to the problem," he said.

"They're the only NATO ally that actually has an active insurgency [the PKK] operating on their territory, so we understand all of those things," McKenzie said.

"I can't speculate on whether or not they'll chose to go to Manbij," he said of the Turkish forces. "That's a future, you know, hypothetical that of course we look at."

"I would tell you that wherever U.S. troops are, they're going to be able to defend themselves, and we coordinate very closely with the Turks on that. They know where our forces are; there's no mystery about where they're going to be," McKenzie said.

The U.S. currently has about 2,000 troops in Syria in the train, advise and assist role, according to the Pentagon, and a small element of U.S. troops has since last March maintained an outpost in Manbij, where they have occasionally come under fire.

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and
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vehicles first moved into Manbij last March to conduct "deterrence patrols" when Turkish forces and Syrian regime forces separately began converging on the crossroads town near the Turkish border and threatened to overrun it. The Turkish and Syrian forces later backed off.

In August, U.S. troops came under sniper fire several times, but there were no casualties or damages to equipment.

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Col. Ryan Dillon, a spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve, said at the time, "There were engagements. They were with small-arms fire that were directed toward our patrols. There was more than one."

The U.S. troops did not return fire, he said. "We did not engage," but "we do reserve the right to defend ourselves."

After a lengthy siege, Manbij was liberated from ISIS in August 2016 by the U.S.-supported Kurdish YPG. The insertion of the Rangers in March 2017 came as Syrian regime forces backed by Russia approached the town from the south and Turkish forces and their allied Free Syrian Army militia pressed from the east.

Turkey has threatened to take Manbij before, but nothing came of it.

In February 2017, Erdogan said the next move by his military would be against Manbij to ensure Turkish border security, but his forces later withdrew from areas east of the town.
 
Jan 27, 2018
Tuesday at 3:44 PM
... and from what I now figured in Internet, so far the biggest gain of the Turks came today, which was some hill (approximately marked in blue below) overlooking
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

anyway after one week, there're just several small (several square kilometers) areas taken by Turks; I even read Kurds had regained some villages!

as I said above, don't quote this to tell me stuff

I also took a closer look on the distances; they're small:
3a60a63a061a8c1efe98495888e2f966-1.jpg

I haven't heard of any activity in the eastern part like south to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

(it's "Marea" in the above map)
and it's still going slowly: in the meantime probably the biggest Turkish success has been taking over
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and this way merging two smaller areas in the northern part:
07c108bcc2e1b2cf4e3953ea5c081f32.jpg

(not sure if those who don't follow this regularly would notice)

now watched a short vid related to what's marked above (ATGMs against tanks); while the action was what I had seen many times before (a single tank at outskirts of a village, getting hit from the opposite hill), it was the first time for me the ATGM operator was a female (as far as I can tell by the voice I heard; there was that typical 'pushing' of the missile in flight, and cheering upon impact ... gosh)
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
noticed through Breaking News at gazeta.ru (
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) which says it's not officially confirmed
Russian fighter jet 'shot down' in Syria's Idlib province
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    • 12 minutes ago

The pilot ejected safely but end up getting killed by the rebel forces when he parachuted down. That means whomever killed that pilot had already violated Geneva convention on warfare and treatment of captured P.O.W.
 
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