China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
In many ways, economics is a lot like quantum mechanics in that the very act of observing something can change the outcome.

When core economic data is published, or a new statistically significant causal relationship is found; its not just governments and economics professors that takes note, but the market itself takes note and re-adjusts as key economic players digest that new information and apply it to try and maximise their own economic benefit.

In that respects, in economics 1+1 can equal 7.
In quantum mechinics the observation doesn't change the outcome, it collapse the wave function to one of its probable state.
The probability expressed as complex amplitude normalised in every calculation, means it is not possible to analyse the system with standard, scalar statistical tools.

The economics is a social science, not natural science .
It define relationship between humans, like law .
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Actually, from general economical standpoint NK is a very interesting playgorund.

They started market liberation in the 90s, and now there is a thriving gray market economy over there.

Now Kim strugle how to be in charge BUT keeping allive the market
 

broadsword

Brigadier
NOT assumption.

I voted for brexit as well.

They fear the immigration because it creating competition for jobs, and pushing down the sallaries.
The temporary / agency job used to pay more than the proper full time employment , doing the same things.

Now it is changed , the temp job paying less than the full time employment, because of the immigration
Actually, the agencies become the entry point of immigrants into the job marekt, and thye making huge profit from it.

I talked with a lot of guys, and the general consensus was the same: the immigration push down the sallaries, and that causing issue for them.

How many is a lot? You need to prove that your talking to a lot of guys is more representative than the 3,000 British people National Centre for Social Research surveyed.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Here is a proof what I am saying that American company increasingly depending on Chinese market So a trade war would only hurt America. And China is increasingly resilient to trade war because the size of domestic market is huge.
While Trump wants to show his blue-collar base he is being tough on trade, big businesses don't want to see any dramatic actions. Over 20 percent of sales at companies like General Motors, Boeing and Apple now come from China, says Shen, the Mizuho economist. Any restrictions on Chinese access to the United States would likely be met with barriers to American companies selling in China.
“China is one of the most important markets for many U.S. multinational companies,” Shen says. “This should lend China immense bargaining power.”


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The Chinese are now buying as much stuff as Americans, a game-changer for the world economy


By Heather Long

January 11 at 11:10 AM 
The mighty force of consumerism has taken hold in China. In 2018, retail sales in China are expected to equal or surpass sales in the United States for the first time, another definitive marker in China's rise to economic superpower status. The growth of China's domestic retail market is luring everyone from automakers to make up companies that want to cash in on the country's growing middle class, but it also serves as another complication in President Trump's quest to transform U.S.-China trade.

Retail sales in China are on track to hit just over $5.8 trillion this year, according to Mizuho, a Japanese bank. It's a stunning rise from a decade ago, when retail sales in China were a quarter of those in the United States. China's rapidly growing middle class has been eager to buy brand-name clothes, cars and cellphones, among other products. Shanghai is now referred to in fashion circles as “Paris of the East.” Their spending habits have been supported by fatter paychecks, with China's income per capita jumping from about $2,000 a year a decade ago to over $8,000 a year now.

“China's best bargaining chip is its massive and fast-growing domestic market,” says Jianguang Shen, chief China economist for Mizuho, who pointed out the retail trend in a recent presentation in Washington, D.C. “This will change the balance (of power) tremendously, as it is first time when the U.S. is dealing with a market of equal size in a potential trade war.”

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On the campaign trail, Trump railed against China as the “economic enemy” of the American people. He harped on the fact that the United States buys far more than it sells to China. The United States ran a $310 billion trade deficit with China in 2016. But Trump has softened his tone on China lately, especially after he visited China in November, and the countries have jointly faced escalating nuclear tensions with North Korea.

Stephen K. Bannon, Trump's former chief strategist, was one of the harshest critics of China in the White House. “To me, the economic war with China is everything," Bannon said over the summer. His excommunication from the Trump fold might also reduce the urgency in the White House to go after China.

Still, the two nations continue to dance around each other in a quest for global and economic dominance. Both sides continue to look for leverage over the other. On Wednesday morning, a Bloomberg story suggesting the Chinese government might halt its purchases of U.S. Treasurys was enough to temporarily spook U.S. markets, sending stocks sliding in early trading. China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasurys. There are also more playful jabs between the countries. A mall in northern China put up a giant dog balloon that bears a striking resemblance to Trump.

If Trump really wants to go after China on trade, “we will need leverage and we will need allies,” says Olin Wethington, who served as a special envoy to China in 2005 and as an economic adviser to President George H.W. Bush. Wethington's name has surfaced for a possible role in Trump's State Department.

Wethington says he personally prefers bringing trade cases against China over the blanket tariffs Trump talked about on the campaign trail, which many warn would spark a trade war that could harm the U.S. economy and the stock market's rapid climb.

While Trump wants to show his blue-collar base he is being tough on trade, big businesses don't want to see any dramatic actions. Over 20 percent of sales at companies like General Motors, Boeing and Apple now come from China, says Shen, the Mizuho economist. Any restrictions on Chinese access to the United States would likely be met with barriers to American companies selling in China.

“China is one of the most important markets for many U.S. multinational companies,” Shen says. “This should lend China immense bargaining power.”

A record 17.6 million vehicles were sold in the United States in 2016, for example, but that was far below the 24 million passenger cars sold in China. U.S. automakers account for about 1 out of every 5 cars sold in China, even though the communist government placed a 10 percent tax on luxury cars and trucks imported from the United States.

But MIT economist David Autor, an authority on trade and automation, thinks the United States still has substantial leverage in any debate with President Xi Jinping of China.

“China exports a substantial piece of its GDP to the United States. They are very dependent on our markets,” Autor says. The United States currently buys 19 percent of China's total exports.

One area where there's a lot of agreement across the political spectrum is to go after China's theft of U.S. intellectual property. It's an increasingly important area as the race for global dominance in robotics, biotech and new energy takes off. Trump has been mulling whether to take action, although he's largely been focused on Chinese steel and aluminum. Trump has pointed to the tariffs President Ronald Reagan put on Japanese semiconductors in the 1980s as a model he wants to emulate, but the difference is the U.S. economy was far larger than Japan's at the time. Now the United States faces an economic equal.

As Trump deliberates what to do, Autor says the president has already handed China a great victory on trade.

“Trump did China the biggest favor of the last 10 years by tearing up TPP (the Trans-Pacific Partnership)," Autor says, calling it the best gift to China since the communist country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. “If you want to look for an inflection point in rate of U.S. global decline, we’ll probably be able to point to tearing up TPP.”
 

broadsword

Brigadier
If the surplus nation is as small as a nation like Cuba, an economic war would hurt her more than the deficit nation. But China is the elephant in the room with its huge appetite and it is going to hurt the deficit nation or its companies badly if China were to cut off its imports.

Let me clarify further for some certain people who cannot see beyond the past. If China doubles its consumption of natural gas while the ban is in place, the deficit nation will also lose out.
 

Klon

Junior Member
Registered Member
I just wanted to say that I (almost) fully agree with Anlsvrthng on the economics. When it comes to critiquing others' knowledge of economics, some posters should heed
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.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I just wanted to say that I (almost) fully agree with Anlsvrthng on the economics. When it comes to critiquing others' knowledge of economics, some posters should heed
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.

Now who is living in the glass house certainly not China
You want trade war bring it on!. they have been saying that for years but nothing sofar
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I just wanted to say that I (almost) fully agree with Anlsvrthng on the economics. When it comes to critiquing others' knowledge of economics, some posters should heed
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Yeah, I have an opinion that is different from his but I am not necessarily critiquing his opinion against mine; I am critiquing it against 1. the fact that Keynes never said what he quoted Keynes as saying, and 2. the knowledge of the US government, by not initiating a trade war, which they would logically do if it would benefit the US as he claimed.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
How many is a lot? You need to prove that your talking to a lot of guys is more representative than the 3,000 British people National Centre for Social Research surveyed.

They opinion/reasoning match the survey, they just made the picture more detailed.

Why the guys in the UK fear from immigration?

There are no immigrants camps in UK like around Calais, or on the streets of Paris.

It is more of an issue from job market standpoint.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Here is a proof what I am saying that American company increasingly depending on Chinese market So a trade war would only hurt America. And China is increasingly resilient to trade war because the size of domestic market is huge.
While Trump wants to show his blue-collar base he is being tough on trade, big businesses don't want to see any dramatic actions. Over 20 percent of sales at companies like General Motors, Boeing and Apple now come from China, says Shen, the Mizuho economist. Any restrictions on Chinese access to the United States would likely be met with barriers to American companies selling in China.
“China is one of the most important markets for many U.S. multinational companies,” Shen says. “This should lend China immense bargaining power.”


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This doesn't match the data from the Chinese Statistical office .
The 6000 milliard $ means 60 % household consumption part from the GDP.
The available data showing 39 %.


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