J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

Status
Not open for further replies.

Tirdent

Junior Member
Registered Member
Why believe the claim that the parts are 3D printed and ready for use but reject the claim about weight savings when they come from the same source, the manufacture themselves?

Because, as I pointed out further down in that post, 3D printing =/= weight saving - at least not necessarily:

"Same material, geometry which is achievable with traditional processes, likely somewhat inferior material properties which might require greater thickness in places than the conventional analogue to bear the same load."

I don't speak Mandarin, so I can't comment on the context of the Chinese claims (were the statements about weight savings a general comment or specifically about the bulkhead? I have no way of knowing), but the rest of the evidence doesn't add up IMHO. When they first pitched the Silent Eagle, Boeing liked to claim its head-on RCS was comparable to the F-35's... this may well in fact have been true for an arc so narrow as to be tactically irrelevant, but later they actually backtracked meekly on the statement. You have to apply common sense and check with some engineering judgement - not just with claims from Chinese manufacturers.

Do we have reason to believe fighter bulkheads *must* use the *strongest* form achievable of some material (strength is not a monolithic property either, and which strength properties you need is highly dependent on the context of their use)? As I understand it, what matters for planes is ultimately strength to weight ratio, not strength alone, and costs play a limiting factor as well.

The wing attachment bulkheads have to take the root bending moment of the wings (from a lift force totaling up to 9 times the aircraft's weight...) and the touch down loads from the landing gear (located in the vicinity due to cg considerations). In the aft fuselage, they carry the engines, take the associated thrust loads and those from the empennage. Count on it - bulkheads are among the most highly loaded parts in the entire airframe which is precisely why the manufacturers go through all that months-long manufacturing effort to make them out of single piece forgings in the first place :)

Before I get caught for this, I should point out I just realized the second F-22 bulkhead image is right after forging and hasn't been milled yet, so probably not a good point of comparison. I'm also unsure about the first image. Much appreciated if someone has a better image for comparison.

EDIT: Maybe this one can serve for a better comparison, though it might weaken my point.

It's the same with the first - they're both shown in the state after the final forging session, before machining (I think this also answers the question of whether they are welded or single piece...). After the latter, they will look just about the same as the 3D printed sample, which was my point. I am struggling to find good pictures of a finished F-22 bulkhead too but here's a "titanium fighter bulkhead" (shape strongly argues F-15, so very much legacy technology - this one *would* have to be welded to a corresponding top half):

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Here's another example showing both forging and final part, from the F-35 (Al-Li material in this case, but the principle is the same):

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


EDIT 2: Trident, earlier you were talking about hollowed structures or structures with trusses made from 3D printing. Though perhaps not with the bulkheads, it seems we might have our answer here, at least with some parts here.

Yes, that's the kind of thing I meant. This type of structure would certainly provide a weight reduction (although that particular sample looks like plastic?). Thing is, to get a massive (as in something like 6t) reduction from 3D printing I'm pretty sure you'd have to take advantage of that technology at every opportunity you get, including bulkheads (leaving aside these, the heaviest parts in the airframe, means throwing away the biggest potential savings). I'm not sure all the bulkheads in an F-22 taken together even add up to all that much more than 6t!

Is the Chinese bulkhead like that inside? I guess this is just a case of extraordinary claims requiring extraordinary evidence to me - China having that kind of thing *flight-ready* by early 2013 qualifies as an extraordinary claim IMHO.
 

Tirdent

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am ignorant about Ti alloys but it is often possible to greatly influence the micro structure of a piece of metal by a a suitable choice of alloying. This can be varied over a printed structure in a way that is very difficult in a forged part.

True, it *can* be done, but has it actually been? Again, 3D printing has great future potential in that regard but for such techniques to be harnessed in the J-20 (assuming the demonstrators were mainly aerodynamic test beds and not structurally representative) they would need to have been mature and near production ready by early 2013. My point about microstructures in forgings concerned grain flow.

The picture from 2013 of a large printed fighter part shows one that is not optimized as described in the Nature news item but such a part might have been developed by now. After all China has the strongest computers and by now plenty of experience in using them.

Once more, for the J-20 to be where it is today, it must have largely frozen in the structural design and manufacturing technology by about 2013 - stuff only happening right now is too late (it also bears mentioning in this respect that the C919 is newer...). Also, looking at the skin panel gaps and rivet patterns on the actual aircraft suggests the internal support structure comprises of conventional straight elements mostly joining at right angles (excepting areas where they follow external sweep angles of course, such as the wing).
 

Tirdent

Junior Member
Registered Member
Consider the F-22's larger horizontal and vertical tails.

As I mentioned earlier, I'm already reducing J-20 empennage weight by more than deducible from the difference in area to the F-22 alone (originally out of laziness, granted :) ) - you can consider that a bonus for lower thickness and less beefy mountings if you like. Point being, I find it hard to justify going even lower than what went into my estimate anyway, even if I accept that caveat of yours.

Just because Trident doesn't agree with me about the thinner wings that doesn't mean he's right. No offense to Trident, but when he made the counterpoint he more or less based it on an eyeball description.

None taken, but some awareness of wing design did go into it as well. I completely agree that a more accurate assessment would have to include measurements of actual t/c ratios, but the conical camber (especially pronounced on the F-22) and twist on both aircraft basically makes that impossible without an actual drawing.

Bearing in mind that, as delft correctly points out, you can make a wing only so thin (for the aspect ratios on the J-20 & F-22 I don't think lower than 3% chord, at best) and that there comes a point where thinner actually means *heavier* to take care of aeroelastic issues, assuming similar thickness absent accurate info is hard to argue against. This is the very trade-off which makes (modified) delta planforms so popular in recent fighter aircraft - the long root chord allows for a reasonable absolute thickness (= fuel volume and structural weight for stiffness against flutter & aileron reversal) at a t/c ratio suitable for low supersonic drag.

Larger empty fuel tanks further support the possibility that density could be less than that of the F-22

The structure needs to be designed to take the weight of the larger fuel volume when full - typically, more fuel capacity = *more* empty weight, not less.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Needed to split this response because it was past the character limit. Might not be the only one I have to do this for today. Sorry guys.

I feel like I'm repeating myself. First, we don't really know how happy they are. (If you disagree, please let me know how we know.) Since they went for a longer plane with a larger fuselage cross section than the F-22, maybe they planned for a heavier plane from the beginning. Regardless of the weight, they can also be happy with other achievements, such as stealth or sensor fusion. I don't take it as a given that the J-20 matches the F-22 in everything just because that was supposedly a requirement (engines, number of missiles in the weapons bay). The J-20 is the only Chinese fifth generation program with military support (in contrast with the FC-31), so in a way, you could say they don't have a choice about being happy. If they aren't happy about something, are they going to complain in the media?
We know because PLAAF officers have said so in public?
#3345
#3551


Maybe they went with a longer fuselage because they wanted a better fineness ratio for transsonic drag. Maybe the cross section isn't as large as you think it is. This is why we fuss over measurements, because without them statements like "they went for a longer plane with a larger cross section" are conjectures, not facts.

I didn't say the J-20 matches the F-22 in everything. I said that if the PLAAF is happy with the J-20 we probably shouldn't presume that whatever its specifications are that they are prohibitive to performance.

Here's how this part of the conversation looks from my perspective. Among general discussion, you bring in "condescending biases and baseless prejudices." Even if you don't explicitly accuse me of these things, I feel that questioning people's motive is pretty rude, which is what I try to tell you. You reply that you agree, but nevertheless insist. It's like I'm telling you that I don't like being insulted and you say you'll do it anyway (but you aren't insulting me). I won't comment on this anymore (unless necessary).
Just for the record, I'm not American and don't stand for their views or interests ("underestimation of potential adversaries [...] NK ").
Hmmm, on one hand I agree that questioning people's motives can be a pretty unpleasant thing to do. On the other hand, that doesn't mean we shouldn't question the motives for participation in a discussion. Remember, when I agreed with you I threw in a "but". As I've pointed out before, the purpose of these discussions is ultimately accuracy. We can't pretend that subtextual, sometimes subconscious assumptions and biases that don't have substantive basis can sometimes colour a person's arguments. Within the confines of PLA watching, this can be just as true of people who are very bullish on China's technological progress as those who are very bearish. It saves a lot of time if people are upfront about whether they're willing to consider evidence openly, or if they are simply arguing to try to prove some preconceived conclusions for themselves. You may think this is cynical, but I do not think that makes it an invalid form of inquiry. After all, I have some trouble thinking that isn't what you're trying to do when you're asking me how believable I find some recent claims to be (such as China's EM catapults or the JF-17's AESA).

Just for the record, I *am* American, though I try not to stand for any views or interests in these discussions either. The point about NK wasn't meant to push for any particular views as much as to point to an example where analysis, for whatever reason, has considerably missed the mark on assessing a country's technological abilities.

I don't think there's much grey area. The fourth paragraph has a quote by Wang Hongzhe, identified in the third paragraph as deputy director of NRIET. Three machine translators give an almost identical result: "The KLJ-7a, which makes its first public appearance in this exhibition, has a combat range of 170 kilometers," stresses WANG Hongzhe (王宏哲), "This range is equivalent to (that of the radar of) F-35, and it is mostly achieved on a radar with a much smaller volume E" n comparison. » (By Bing, obviously should say "in comparison".)
Maybe don't rely on machine translators, especially when it is translating something that itself had to be translated from another language.

Here is the original Wang Hongzhe quote.

"“首次亮相航展的国产KLJ-7A型机载有源相控阵火控雷达的作战距离为170千米,与F-35的水平相当,而且这是在该型雷达的体积要小于F-35装备雷达的水平上实现的"

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


A more precise translation of what he's saying would be that "the KLJ-7A's combat range is 170 km, equivalent/comparable in quality/performance to the F-35s. There's a bit more wiggle in the Chinese than the English translation of the French translation of the Chinese.

I don't think the range of the AN/APG-81 has been published. Ironically, in this case we have the number for the Chinese claim but not the American one. You could probably find something on the lines of "40% percent more range than X, which has twice the range of Y" where X and Y are previous generation radars, but I don't feel like searching. FORBIN has reported some possibilities.
Anyway, let me know what you think of this claim. I think it's false.
A very good point, so we really have no basis of judging how accurately the claims are, though Chinese industry commentators *might* have some real information here because they did steal data on the F-35. It's why I said the claim is "believable", not "true". If you think it's false that's for you to decide. If you keep asking me for reasons on why it might be true I will keep giving those reasons to you. If you're not willing to consider those reasons with a willingness to believe or at least consider them then let me know so I'm not wasting my time. I've already made clear what my thoughts on this claim are.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Klon said:
I won't comment on specifics about the volume. It is indeed a lot of work to perform a full estimate.
However, there are two members who say they've done it and have posted their results on this thread: Totoro (page 39, +20%) and Trident (doesn't provide a volume estimate, only one of mass). Conversely, I find that you were mostly nitpicking or blowing holes in the work of others without providing your own measurements for others to use or critique. This is what was meant by "fair."

I'm not obligated to provide my own estimates, especially since I don't really have the time. If I'm going to spend the time to do it I'd rather do it precisely, which I don't think we have the tools for. I've found that getting precise well adjusted length and wingspan estimates, when we have the pictures to support such exercises, and defending them eat enough of my time as it is. At the same time, I want to be clear that I respect and appreciate the work Trident did, and remain open to considering totoro's estimates if he chooses to post what he did in detail. I can, however, appreciate their work without agreeing on everything.

I don't think it's unreasonable or unfair to "nitpick" or "blow holes" (or as I call it, grading people's homework) when people present detailed work in a debate. The whole point of presenting detailed work is, after all, to have the work be transparent to critique. You don't need to provide equivalent work for a critique to be valid (though I think it should be mentioned that reading thinking about someone's arguments, and then typing a response, also requires work). The point of discussion and debate isn't to agree or admire. You also don't have to find me credible or fair for my critiques to be valid. If you have issues with my points, focus on addressing the substance of those points and not whether you think I'm being fair or not (or whatever else you think of my character).

That Trident and totoro reached such divergent results should tell you something about how well we can do estimates with the information we have on hand. I don't think I need to tell totoro that I respect his contributions to discussion greatly, but when I asked for his specific methods we ended up not getting into the weeds (which is understandable, of course). This is important, because without detailing specific method we can't grade the homework. Would you have been so willing to accept what totoro's estimates were if he said the J-20 had 20% less volume than the F-22?

Trident, if I recall correctly, uses *volume* to estimate mass. Specifically he assumes they have the same density and use estimated volume differences to determine mass differences.

Is it actually 0.5 square meters smaller? Trident found that it's 0.6 square meters larger. Why should we assume that everyone's measurements were biased in one direction and your counterpoints are somehow better? Why didn't any of your warnings about measurement make the point that the error could be in the other direction?
Did I say it is actually 0.5 meters? No, I said it could be 0.5 meters smaller and we wouldn't know without precise measurements. Trident said that his estimates have large error bars. I detailed some of my problems with the assumptions Trident used earlier, but even without them there will be measurement error.

Did I say my counterpoints are somehow better? No. The point behind counter arguments is that it's just as important to consider the ways some argument or assumption could be wrong as it is to consider the ways they could be right. Trident was already making the positive case. If I disagreed with some of what he did, naturally I would be making the negative case. If the positive case is already self evident, then why would I need to address them again? This is a discussion that ultimately hinges on technical details. I don't need to frame everything around equivalencies. If you have issues with the substance of the counterpoints themselves you should address them. If you don't want to believe my points that's your prerogative. I'm not here to give you affirmation...And for what it's worth, I did actually say the error could go both ways earlier in one of my posts.

Anyway, my position isn't that the J-20 weighs 25 tonnes. My view is that it most likely has a similar density to the F-22 and is thus proportionally heavier (maybe 21 to 23 tonnes). Some weight reduction might be plausible, but 6+ tonnes isn't (to me). I think the 15 tonne number is an extreme outlier (if you had queried the members here, how many would have volunteered something like it before the article was posted?).

To conclude, I think Chinese technical claims can be wrong and the 15 tonnes number probably is wrong.
As I mentioned much earlier in this discussion, I think the view that the J-20 is similar in weight to the F-22 is not unreasonable, but what is "reasonable" isn't always what is true. Do you have reasons for believing that a 6 tonne reduction is impossible other than incredulity? That no one would have volunteered something like that before a *source* suggested it is precisely why it's worth considering the possibility. We have no basis for knowing anything about the J-20's weight, but a *source* that sits closer to the information might. As I said earlier, if you don't want to believe something, that's your prerogative. However, incredulity by itself is not exactly a strong well reasoned argument.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
The structure needs to be designed to take the weight of the larger fuel volume when full - typically, more fuel capacity = *more* empty weight, not less.
Yes, larger fuel tanks would result in higher empty weight in the sense that something (empty tank plus supports) is always heavier than nothing but does it result in a higher density? (We were comparing density, not weight.)

Basically, if you stretched an air-frame only adding size to the fuel tanks and the necessary supports, would it be less, more, or of comparable density to the original design? To answer that, I think the question ultimately boils down to whether a volume of aircraft hosting only the tanks and supports is heavier, lighter, or similar in weight to an equal volume of the aircraft in which the other parts (avionics, engines, etc...) are held.

I don't have any data but since the tanks are large empty space other parts are usually packed with something, I would think that having large fuel tanks decreases density while of course, adding weight.
 
Last edited:

Tirdent

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yes, larger fuel tanks would result in higher empty weight in the sense that something (empty tank plus supports) is always heavier than nothing but does it result in a higher density? (We were comparing density, not weight.)

I dunno about you, but I *was* comparing weight. My J-20 estimate is based on finding the difference in volume to the F-22 as accurately as possible (accounting for parts where available info allows the conclusion that the J-20 has more or less than the Raptor as best I can) and any quantifiable equipment differences (gun, EOTS, engines, ...). Density (weight per volume) I assumed to be the *same* (as latenlazy correctly states), not higher - after all I end up with ~30% more fuel but <10% more OEW.

So, more fuel capacity does not result in higher density, but then I never said it did?

That Trident and totoro reached such divergent results should tell you something about how well we can do estimates with the information we have on hand

Considering, as you mention, the quality of the information at our disposal, that we should end up within about 5% of each other ("very low 20s" to low 21s) is not too divergent at all I think :) It's obviously very hard to actually quantify the error margin on my estimate, but I'd hazard a guess at putting it in the 500kg ballpark, which would mean Totoro's and my estimate even have a (narrow) range of overlap, if we credit him with about the same accuracy.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I dunno about you, but I *was* comparing weight. My J-20 estimate is based on finding the difference in volume to the F-22 as accurately as possible (accounting for parts where available info allows the conclusion that the J-20 has more or less than the Raptor as best I can) and any quantifiable equipment differences (gun, EOTS, engines, ...). Density (weight per volume) I assumed to be the *same* (as latenlazy correctly states), not higher - after all I end up with ~30% more fuel but <10% more OEW.

So, more fuel capacity does not result in higher density, but then I never said it did?
Ah, but you replied to my comment and we were discussing density of F-22 vs J-20. Because if they were of similar density, then you could try to estimate J-20 weight by its volume compared to F-22's volume. But if J-20 was of different or lower density and unknown density, then you could not come to any conclusion from volume comparison. So by bringing up the greater fuel tank capacity leading greater empty space within aircraft volume, I was arguing for the possibility that that would be one contributing factor to J-20 being less dense than F-22. This would mean that trying to pin J-20's weight by comparing volume and multiplying by F-22 mass would be wrong and could significantly overestimate J-20's weight.
 

zhonghua

Just Hatched
Registered Member
A navalized J-20 will be interesting... because J-20 looks kinda big... I wonder how radical of a design change would navalizing the J-20 do to it's stealth characteristics?
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Looks like I've overestimated my capabilities... I actually don't have the power to do that. Thought that the new extended moderation feature would let me do it.
I think the typo names are endearing.

Because, as I pointed out further down in that post, 3D printing =/= weight saving - at least not necessarily:

"Same material, geometry which is achievable with traditional processes, likely somewhat inferior material properties which might require greater thickness in places than the conventional analogue to bear the same load."

I don't speak Mandarin, so I can't comment on the context of the Chinese claims (were the statements about weight savings a general comment or specifically about the bulkhead? I have no way of knowing), but the rest of the evidence doesn't add up IMHO. When they first pitched the Silent Eagle, Boeing liked to claim its head-on RCS was comparable to the F-35's... this may well in fact have been true for an arc so narrow as to be tactically irrelevant, but later they actually backtracked meekly on the statement. You have to apply common sense and check with some engineering judgement - not just with claims from Chinese manufacturers.
3D printing doesn't necessarily equal to weight savings, but the manufacture claimed both. Why believe the manufacture on one but not the other?

"As much as 40 percent of the weight can be reduced if the forged titanium parts on an American F-22 were made using the Chinese
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, according to a a report on Chinese
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Guancha Zhe."

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


"F-22的钛合金锻件如果使用中国的3D打印技术制造,在强度相当的情况下,重量最多可以减少40%。"

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The Chinese says that if the F-22's titanium parts were made with China's 3D printing manufacturing process, in conditions of equivalent strength, they can reduce their weight by up to 40%. Pretty much in line with the ZDNet description. It doesn't specifically mention bulkheads, but most of the titanium used in the F-22 are for bulkheads and other large main structures, and earlier parts of the Chinese article specifically draws comparison between the F-22's forged and machined bulkheads and printing bulkheads with additive manufacturing, so I don't think it's a huge leap to consider that they're also referring to bulkheads.

As I've said consistently, I retain skepticism for the claim. However, we have no way of refuting it, and it is a reasonably well sourced one. I'd also add that "common" sense isn't always so "common". What you may regard as "common" is a reflection of what you find believable, which may or may not pertain to what is likely or possible. I agree about checking with "engineering judgement", but I think it might be a bit presumptuous to suggest that laymen like you or I, unless one of us is a manufacturing process or materials engineers, are genuinely qualified to say we have good "engineering judgment". Indeed, the manufacture is probably better positioned to making "engineering judgments" than we are.

I wouldn't compare Boeing's Silent Eagle marketing with AVIC Laser's claims. For one, the latter's claim is quite a bit more specific. Second, they may have very different motives at play. Boeing is trying to get buyers for an old airplane design, while AVIC Laser is either trying to improve its PR or burnish its credibility with manufacturing customers. Manufacturing customers are going to be quite a bit more stringent and discriminating about their judgments over product promise than buyers of a fighter jet might. Qualitative promises for jet fighter capabilities are quite a bit more ambiguous, while strength and weight claims for parts manufacturing are quite a bit more testable. Furthermore, the latter, to at least my knowledge, hasn't seemed to backtrack on the claim. This doesn't mean AVIC Laser's claims are unquestionable and indisputable, but without further elaboration and argumentation the credibility of one company's claims have no direct bearing on the credibility of another's.

The wing attachment bulkheads have to take the root bending moment of the wings (from a lift force totaling up to 9 times the aircraft's weight...) and the touch down loads from the landing gear (located in the vicinity due to cg considerations). In the aft fuselage, they carry the engines, take the associated thrust loads and those from the empennage. Count on it - bulkheads are among the most highly loaded parts in the entire airframe which is precisely why the manufacturers go through all that months-long manufacturing effort to make them out of single piece forgings in the first place :)
"Most highly loaded part" in a plane doesn't necessarily mean strongest part possible with forging.

This is an interesting excerpt I found while trying to dig up where I read that titanium can have cracking problems in the milling process. The F-22 *does* compromise on some strength properties for others, apparently.

Screen_Shot_2017_12_05_at_8_21_18_PM.png


It's the same with the first - they're both shown in the state after the final forging session, before machining (I think this also answers the question of whether they are welded or single piece...). After the latter, they will look just about the same as the 3D printed sample, which was my point. I am struggling to find good pictures of a finished F-22 bulkhead too but here's a "titanium fighter bulkhead" (shape strongly argues F-15, so very much legacy technology - this one *would* have to be welded to a corresponding top half):

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Here's another example showing both forging and final part, from the F-35 (Al-Li material in this case, but the principle is the same):

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
If they look the same to you then ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I did question much earlier in our discussion whether either of us have the qualifications to make confident visual judgments, so there was always going to be a limit to that point.

Interestingly enough, in the guancha article I linked, there *is* a picture of a finished F-22 bulkhead and, for what it's worth, I do think in this picture the F-22's looks a lot thicker than the J-31s.

63494380157056426216.jpg

Now that we've arrived at comparing parts pictures, I think it's worth saying that ultimately there are probably limits to how far either of us can go with looking at individual pieces while neglecting the overall structural design. You could argue pretty easily that if the F-22 used thicker titanium bulkheads but had fewer of them then the weight comparisons can be a total wash. We're probably fussing over details that don't


Yes, that's the kind of thing I meant. This type of structure would certainly provide a weight reduction (although that particular sample looks like plastic?). Thing is, to get a massive (as in something like 6t) reduction from 3D printing I'm pretty sure you'd have to take advantage of that technology at every opportunity you get, including bulkheads (leaving aside these, the heaviest parts in the airframe, means throwing away the biggest potential savings). I'm not sure all the bulkheads in an F-22 taken together even add up to all that much more than 6t!
Unfinished 3D printed parts can have a dull "plastic" look. I think I've read before that the F-22's titanium bulkheads are about 25% of its structural weight (don't take my word for this), which probably makes them about 4-5 tonnes, but if it's 40% titanium, then that means there are about 3 tonnes of titanium that aren't bulkheads. If that's actually the case, and if we presume that 3D printed bulkheads can't save that much weight, I think that probably makes the titanium weight savings claim stronger, not weaker. Why wouldn't China try to take advantage of that technology, if they had it, at every turn? Wouldn't printing bulkheads be a pretty strong indication that they already are?

Is the Chinese bulkhead like that inside? I guess this is just a case of extraordinary claims requiring extraordinary evidence to me - China having that kind of thing *flight-ready* by early 2013 qualifies as an extraordinary claim IMHO.
I doubt it, but it doesn't need to in order for them to use the manufacturing process to save weight?

As I said earlier, the claim is what it is. You can take it or leave it.[/QUOTE]
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top