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Lieutenant General
Registered Member
USS Nimitz is scheduled to visit Colombo today (Saturday). I hope I can get to see it from my balcony or I'd have to go to
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but don't know the exact time it'll enter port. Anyone here has any idea? I'll be an awesome sight!

USS Nimitz Visit to Sri Lanka First for U.S. Aircraft Carrier Since 1985 -
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USS Nimitz to Visit Sri Lanka Saturday; First U.S. Carrier to Visit Colombo in More than 30 Years -
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Well done your lucky Buddy ;)
 
this is quite interesting ("The advent of networked systems and cyberwarfare has led military commands to begin training and planning for operations without them in the case an adversary denies them."):
The cyber paradox: Reliance on new tech can quickly become a weakness
17 hours ago
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The cyber paradox: As connecting devices has created awareness and speed, denial to those processes can create chaos.

The advent of networked systems and cyberwarfare has led military commands to begin training and planning for operations without them in the case an adversary denies them.

“We look to segment and protect in various defense in depth ways, that involves three things; people, processes and technology,” Rear Adm. Danelle Barrett, Navy Cyber Security Division Director, said during an Oct. 27 panel hosted by AFCEA’s DC chapter. “It’s not all technology … You focus on the leadership first and foremost; how does a leader understand if I have to ask you to do without, what is my plan for execution.”

Barrett noted that the Navy is trying to educate commanders to think about courses of action in the event their access to networks or infrastructure ― such as supervisory control and data acquisition or industrial control systems ― are denied by adversaries.

“I’m not talking do without for a couple hours in a power outage, I’m talking Puerto Rico-level do without. What if you were without for a month, how are you going to execute your no-fail mission,” she said.

Commanders, she added, need to understand that is possibility and have a plan ready to execute.

How can the Navy fight through the hurt, she said is their mantra.

“You have to understand what are my no-fail missions ― and I don’t mean my cyber missions, it might be [ballistic missile defense] today, it may be humanitarian, disaster relief … tomorrow,” she said. “What is the critical cyber terrain that supports those missions that cannot fail. That includes the control systems and ICS.”

“A lot of times [commanders will] think about it in terms of I don’t have my network for a couple of hours or I may have portions of it,” Barrett told Fifth Domain following the panel. “The message I’m trying to relay is you may have none of it and it may be for longer than you originally anticipated … If you haven’t worked out those processes of what you’re going to do what and if that happens, and think of Puerto Rico, no power for a month, think of that. That’s not adversary driven but what if it was and what do you do about that.”

While some of the answers might not be ideal, such as paper spreadsheets, at least they’ll have a plan and be prepared to execute their mission if denied. “Mission assurance is the key,” she said.

This is true across the military as well as the private sector. As adversaries seek to jam and block U.S. signals, the military is trying to develop redundant systems in cyber- or GPS-degraded or denied environments.

Famously, after Sony was sacked with a massive cyberattack in 2014 attributed to North Korea that created physical damage to their computing infrastructure, employees were forced to do business with pen and paper again.

The Naval Academy has even begun reteaching celestial navigation using tools like sextants.

“That’s a perfect example,” Barrett said. “They took off celestial navigation as a training requirement for ROTC units and Naval Academy. It’s back on now because you’ve got to be able to shoot the sextant … and operate. Again it’s mission assurance.

“What are those elements you can’t fail on, whether it’s navigation, launching weapons, medical, whatever it happens to be for your readiness and then figure out how you have to workaround,” she told Fifth Domain.

In terms of how this manifests itself, Barrett said the Navy is doing some educational trainings, noting she briefed new flag officers in a training on this on Oct. 26. They do it for people going to commanding officer school, as well.

“It’s not just the operations mission afloat, it’s whatever your operational mission is; you may be medical, you maybe [Naval Facilities Engineering Command]. All of those contribute to our readiness so they’re all equally critical,” she said.

The hope is that eventually, commanders will incorporate these contingencies into their campaign plans.

They’re beginning with the commanders because they will implement orders down from the highest levels to the local ships and installations, but, Barrett added, “basic training for surface warfare officer, for Navy leaders, for everybody is starting to include more cyber elements.”
 
Sep 14, 2017
Aug 5, 2017

and
Boeing lands $600M contract to design new Air Force Ones

11 hours ago
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now
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Air Mobility Command, experienced in gaining FAA certification for civilian aircraft rebuilt for military purposes, is using its knowledge to try to lower the costs of the
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.

The head of AMC,
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, told me this afternoon they hoped to find “efficiencies” in the process of refitting a used Boeing 747 bought from a defunct Russian airline.

“I hope we can drive some efficiencies to move the schedule somewhat to the left,” he told me. Boeing, who are the prime contractor for the program called Presidential Aircraft Replacement (PAR), knows just how painful
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process can be from their experience on the
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. While it’s difficult to pin down, unexpected difficulties getting FAA certification have added at least several months to the tanker program and maybe more. Boeing, primarily a commercial aircraft company, is loath to irritate the FAA and neither they nor the Air Force have said how much cost or schedule the FAA has added to the tanker program.

Everhart’s answer to my question about PAR offers some hints as to what may have afflicted the tanker as well. He said AMC will sit down with the FAA and try to nail down test parameters. always a tricky venture. It will be especially hard with a unique aircraft like Air Force One, which faces threats today the existing ones were not really designed to cope with. AMC will also meet with the PAR program office to decide exactly what type of certification is needed set up what the head of AMC called “a good firm schedule to get that accomplished.

In other news, Everhart told a small group of defense reporters that the KC-10 retirement will go ahead starting in fiscal 2019 and proceed through 2024. He forecasts a savings to the Air Force of $3.4 billion over that FYDP once the fleet is retired. The Air Force is buying 179 KC-46s to replace KC-135s.

Of course, the exciting question is what will replace the KC-10s. Everhart has said the service might fly as many five different airframes. There have even been discussions of tankers that are stealthy. Given the much improved range and lethality of Chinese and Russian weapons,
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. Conventional tankers are enormous targets. While they can be protected by fighters and fitted with protective systems, the fleet is far too important to lack resiliency. This will be fun to watch.
source is BreakingDefense
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now noticed the usual ... Pentagon Spokesperson Urges Congress to End Continuing Resolution Funding
Oct. 26, 2017
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The U.S. Congress must pass a defense spending bill and not another continuing resolution to fund the Defense Department, chief Pentagon spokesperson
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said today at a Pentagon news briefing.

White, speaking to reporters with Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Frank McKenzie, the director of the Joint Staff, said the department has been operating under a continuing resolution for more than 1,070 days.

Continuing Resolutions Negatively Impact Readiness

“That’s nearly three years,” White said. “[Defense Secretary Jim Mattis] has said that continuing resolutions negatively impact the readiness of our forces and equipment.”

A continuing resolution is a temporary funding measure that Congress can use to fund the federal government for a limited amount of time.

The longer the continuing resolution replaces a budget, the more damaging it is to DoD, White said.

“We hope the Congress can pass an FY18 budget before Dec. 8, when the continuing resolution ends,” she added.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
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People are surprised that missiles miss. I bet realistic hit rates are nowhere near the >90% success claims by manufacturers. Just like you can almost never get the manufacturer's claimed fuel efficiency. Weapons makers are even less scrutinised by governments and national consumer protection agencies than car makers.
 
now I read a very interesting article (“There is a natural tension between tax cuts and defense budget increases because both drive up the deficit,” ...), but put here just the link as it contains political segments:
US defense industry to Congress: Don't let tax cuts add to the deficit
20 hours ago
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People are surprised that missiles miss. I bet realistic hit rates are nowhere near the >90% success claims by manufacturers. Just like you can almost never get the manufacturer's claimed fuel efficiency. Weapons makers are even less scrutinised by governments and national consumer protection agencies than car makers.
I now dug out the interview Sep 16, 2017
I now watched most of the vid

related to the discussion I had in another thread Sep 4, 2017
is since this moment:
e6c095a43c2120ddaa857df8b959ec27.jpg

the pilot saying "As we've been taught: try something different ..."
the discussion I mentioned was one of the most fascinating I've had on the SDF, of course on the board I quote unquote lost
what else LOL!
I bailed out after this:
Sep 5, 2017
I got quoted by another debater so one more post, will leave it to Readers after this:

hitting by missiles of the same type fired in a salvo isn't "a process without memory", in the whole set of 80 missiles and 40 targets from Today at 10:12 AM, the outcome for the second missiles (= #2-missiles from Today at 10:12 AM) is not independent of what was the outcome for the first missiles (= #1-missiles from Today at 10:12 AM);
for example if one of the first missiles didn't make it to the kill box (and assuming two missiles are "double assigned" as in #4167 Iron Man, Yesterday at 3:25 AM), the probability the second missile from that salvo would make it to the kill box is lower than that 0.7 (EDIT which is a value from #4167 Iron Man, Yesterday at 3:25 AM I had been using as an example)

in other words,
you may ask yourself a question:
if you now shot multiple missiles from 1960s, each with some low Pk, in a salvo against for example latest-block Exocet, would you IN THIS WAY significantly increase the probability of taking down said Exocet? (or said probability would be still very close to said low Pk, huh?)
LOL!

another story is if two different types of missiles, one with for example IR homing and P_hit_IR,
another with for example active-radar-homing and P_hit_ARH, are fired in a salvo, then the chain rule should be a good approximation:
P_stop = 1.0 - (1.0 - P_hit_IR)*(1.0 - P_hit_ARH)

I'm not going to respond to anybody anymore on this topic
as around that time I found out every Combat Research book whose content I had been able to see through google, like three or four books, assumes the chain rule

P_stop = 1.0 - (1.0 - P_hit)*(1.0 - P_hit)*(1.0 - P_hit)*...

applies here, so those books happily achieve P_stop of practically one with several missiles of the same type

(while I suspect LOL if the first missile was spoofed, so would be the second, the third ... and the process wouldn't be stochastic if you know what I'm saying)

but yeah I realized I either should write a paper going against those books, or shut up LOL

of course the pilot from that interview knew better than to fire the same missile(s) again, he has a real world "book" to follow!
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Certainly interesting to know. But we don't have the stats for any of this to form hypothesis. If only they'd reveal the distributions of practice shots against known targets. Actual war against an intelligent and unknown enemy equipment is another matter. What we can say is probably best not to bet everything on missiles. I'm all for F-35's let your missiles do the turning ethos but it's always nice to also have a gun.
 
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