Chinese Economics Thread

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
This story shows how difficult it is to eradicate poverty in China The last mile is the hardest because most of them live in very isolated place But CCP is determined to get rid of poverty in 2020. All the best

See how the people of the Dulong ethnic group, who were isolated for six months a year by snow in remote mountains of southwest China, finally saw the light at the end of the Tunnel.

Here is very long video about poverty eradication program of Prez Xi
 
now I read
China's jobless rate at lowest level in years
2017-10-22 20:23 GMT+8
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China has maintained overall stability in employment in the past five years, although the unemployment rate has hit 3.95 percent – its lowest point in multiple years – at the end of September, China’s labor ministry said on Sunday.

The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said in a statement that 10.97 million new jobs had been created in China from January to September this year alone, with a growth of 300,000 compared with the previous year.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) figure, the jobless rate for 31 major cities stood at 3.95 percent in September, reached the lowest level since 2012.

Despite being ahead of schedule, Yin Weimin, head of the ministry, told media that “raising the capacity to employ workers overall still faces large pressures.”

“We need to create 15 million jobs per year,” Yin said, singling out China’s more than 8 million new university graduates that enter the job market each year as one particular group in need of additional employment.

Under a low unemployment rate, in the face of an overall slowdown in economy, Yin added that Chinese job market is largely reliant on the new Internet economy and entrepreneurship.

Although many analysts say that the government figure is an unreliable indicator of national employment conditions, China’s official unemployment rate has remained generally stable as economic growth has dipped to a 26-year low and the government forges ahead with ambitious plans to cut back on industrial capacity.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in March that China added 13.14 million new urban jobs in 2016 and aims to add another 11 million this year while keeping the registered unemployment rate below 4.5 percent.

However, pressure remains as more than 15 million people in cities will be in need of jobs in each of the coming three years, with the number of new graduates from universities expected to exceed 8 million next year, Yin said.

He pledged to continue proactive support for employment, strengthen vocational training, encourage entrepreneurship and protect workers' rights.

In April, Beijing said it would need to resettle about half a million workers that lose jobs in the coal and steel sectors this year and will speed up development of a “black list” system for firms with wage arrears.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
A glimpse into modern China, Innovation is the new engine of chinese economy and it will drive Chinese economy further. AI powered drone technology X aircraft, the biggest electric bus maker BYD, Tencent and more all of them private company In english with subtitle commentary by Kevin Rudd, Jacques Martin, Wang Gungwu,( a noted Overseas Chinese Sinologist)
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Robert Kuhn Continuing with the series
 
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siegecrossbow

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A glimpse into modern China, Innovation is the new engine of chinese economy and it will drive Chinese economy further. AI powered drone technology X aircraft, the biggest electric bus maker BYD, Tencent and more all of them private company In english with subtitle commentary by Kevin Rudd, Jacques Martin, Wang Gungwu,( a noted Overseas Chinese Sinologist)
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Robert Kuhn Continuing with the series

Are there more episodes after the third?
 
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China Focus: How China can avoid middle income trap in a new era
Xinhua| 2017-10-23 16:40:34
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"The middle income trap" is a recurring concern in developing countries and was once a serious worry for China.

The concept was first put forward by the World Bank in a 2006 report on East Asian economies. The theory is that in middle-income economies, growth slows, nations are unable to generate further economic impetus and per capita GDP stalls.

Japan, the Republic of Korea and Singapore are among a few that have attained high-income status. Most Latin American countries have fallen into the trap, according to World Bank standards.

STEPS TO SAFETY

Through the economic reforms of the past five years, China has seemed more likely to escape the trap.

The wide-ranging reforms Xi Jinping set out in his report to the ongoing 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on Wednesday will make China even more capable of avoiding the trap, said Liu Yuanchun, an economist and vice-president of Renmin University of China.

The CPC leader dealt with the core problems facing the economy which might stagnate growth and pledged to continue supply-side structural reform, enhance risk control, improve macro regulation, ease market access and boost innovation, said Liu.

Xi spoke of focusing on the real economy, and moving industries up to the medium-high end of the global value chain, and laid out plans to make China a country of innovators.

China will introduce a negative list for market access nationwide and support the growth of private businesses, Xi said, adding that China will significantly ease market access and further open the service sector.

Xi also said China will improve the financial regulatory system to "forestall systemic financial risks." On reform of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs), he called for furthering reform and supporting state capital in "becoming stronger, doing better, and growing bigger."

"I think it will be no problem for China to avert the middle-income trap, and we should be confident about this," Liu told media on the sidelines of the congress.

BUILDING ON SOLID GROUND

Liu's confidence stems from the solid foundation of the economy and the goals the Party has set.

While announcing socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a "new era," Xi envisioned China developing into a nation with "socialist modernization basically realized" by 2035, and "a great modern socialist country" by the middle of the century, with a leading influence in the world.

An immediate goal would be to turn China into a "moderately prosperous society" by 2020, doubling GDP from 2010 levels.

Optimism has been building due to the resilience of the economy. GDP has risen by around 26 trillion yuan (about 3.93 trillion U.S. dollars) in the past five years and is well on track to meet this year's growth target of about 6.5 percent.

NEW-FOUND CONFIDENCE

The middle-income trap is what happens when economic stability becomes economic stagnation. The World Bank estimated in 2012 that of 101 middle-income economies in the 1960s, only 13 became high-income ones in 2008.

After the global financial crisis, fears grew that China might be the next victim. Growth slowed after three decades of unprecedented expansion, slipping to 6.7 percent in 2016, the lowest level in over 20 years.

Lou Jiwei, then finance minister, warned at a forum at Tsinghua University in 2015 that, without further reform, China had a "50/50 chance" of sliding into the middle income trap, citing a rapidly aging population and shrinking labor force.

Lou, also a delegate to the 19th CPC National Congress, updated his verdict Thursday.

"Now I can state with full confidence that, after the sweeping reforms of the past two and a half years, it will be no problem for China to avoid the middle income trap," he said on the sidelines of the congress.

The ex-minister, currently head of the National Council for Social Security Fund, credits his optimism to supply-side structural reform, granting household residency to migrant workers, reduced government restrictions, judicial reform and free trade zones.

FIGHTING ON EVERY FRONT

Despite all this optimism, it is still too early to announce that the middle income trap has been well and truly evaded.

The World Bank classifies economies as low, middle or high income. Middle-income nations are those with a per capita gross national income (GNI) between 1,036 and 12,615 U.S. dollars in 2012. China's per capita GNI was 8,260 U.S. dollars in 2016, 93rd in the world.

Liu of Renmin University of China expected China to be a high-income country by 2030, but admitted that this would not be an easy task.

"Transforming the economy will not happen overnight. We must wait for these new, leading industries to become established and take the economy to the next level," said Huang Yiping, an economist with Peking University.

Innovation is another front. A recent UBS research paper said that, "in order to avoid the middle income trap and become a more developed economy, China will have to transform itself from 'made in China' to 'created in China' -- a route backed strongly by Beijing."

"Already a middle income economy, China cannot overcome the trap by simply relying on structural reforms and expanding domestic consumption," said Edmund Phelps, a Nobel Prize-winning American economist. "Rather, China needs to develop and promote its own approach to technological innovation."
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Interesting appointment of Wang Yang former governor of Guangdong, if it true than private sector will play increasing role in Chinese economy
All the pundit is WRONG Xi is not a dictator bent on monopolizing power Instead he continue with consensus leadership based on inclusiveness of all faction
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Xi set to surprise critics with consensus appointments
Leaked details indicate reformer from rival faction elevated to top position in show of continuity
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OCTOBER 24, 2017 9:41
In the final days of speculation as to who will be elevated to China’s top echelon of power, the decisions have already been revealed – or so it appears.

A leaked list of who will be appointed to China’s top decision making body, the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), shows inclusive selections, defying widespread expectations that appointments would further consolidate Xi’s power.

Wang Yang, a reformer well liked in overseas circles and a vice premier in China’s State Council, as well as Han Zheng, the party secretary of Shanghai, will both ascend to the PSC, according to the South China Morning Post, which cited several knowledgeable sources. The same sources said Wang will likely be named executive vice premier. The choices are representatives of China’s two main political factions, which observers sometimes refer to as the Youth League faction (Wang) and the Shanghai faction (Han).

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Wang Yang, center, then Secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Committee of the Communist Party, is seen in Guangzhou in 2010. Photo: AFP
The man at the center of overseas speculation, close Xi ally Wang Qishan, will be stepping down, according to another SCMP scoop, quieting the most talked-about theory that Xi may flout an informal retirement age to keep the anticorruption tzar on the PSC.

If true, the reports confirm that China’s leadership is committed to ruling by consensus, contrary to predictions that Xi might push to shrink the PSC to five people and further consolidate power with younger protégé appointments.

Wang Yang, defender of private enterprise and civil society
The elevation of Wang Yang would seem a natural choice, as he meets the criteria of seniority and experience. He was formerly the top party official of Guangdong, China’s most populous province, and Party Secretary of Chongqing municipality before that. But it comes a surprise to some from a political standpoint, due in part to Wang’s policies while administering Guangdong province. The Guangdong model of development was seen by many at the outset of Xi Jinping’s first term as a possible template for broader national reform, but has since increasingly contrasted with Xi’s policies.

Placing an emphasis on private enterprise and a greater role for civil society when at the helm of Guangzhou, Wang represented to many inside and outside of China one of two alternate paths for China’s reform. At the time of the 18th Party Congress in 2012, the then Chongqing Party Secretary, Bo Xilai, represented an opposing conservative “leftist” path. Bo’s rhetoric reflected a return to party propaganda, and while in power he consolidated political power through a popular anticorruption campaign, stripping industry moguls of their wealth in high-profile trials.

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Bo Xilai seen during his corruption trial. Photo: AFP/CCTV
When Xi Jinping took office in 2012, some political pundits looked at the different brands of politics represented by Bo and Wang and wondered which direction Xi Jinping would take: an emphasis on harnessing the power of civil society and the private sector on the one hand, and a drive to consolidate power through populist rhetoric and strongman politics on the other.

Xi’s decision to purge Bo Xilai and Bo’s subsequent arrest and life imprisonment, along with Wang Yang’s elevation to the Politburo did not convincingly answer the question at the time. In fact, Bo’s populist policies and anticorruption campaign were quite popular and some speculated Xi may co-opt them to consolidate his own power.

A show of unity
After five years, a simplistic analysis might conclude that Xi has taken a page from Bo’s playbook, playing up the ideological primacy of the party and taking on corrupt vested interests while consolidating power. But Xi’s appointment of Wang Yang, as well as others from rival political factions, points to the need to look below the surface.

Cheng Li, a seasoned scholar of Chinese politics who accurately predicted Wang Qishan leaving the PSC in
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with Asia Times’ Doug Tsuruoka last week, has pointed out that misconceptions regarding Chinese politics abound, including those regarding Xi Jinping’s anticorruption campaign and his efforts to reform China.

Xi-Jinping-2.jpg

Xi Jinping visits people in China’s countryside. Screen grab of “carry through the reform” documentary. Source: CCTV
As was the case with Bo in Chongqing, Xi has tried to restore the legacy of China’s Communist Party through propaganda. But his anticorruption campaign is not merely about consolidating power – it is about reform. Li wrote in 2014:

Although the primary leaders of the campaign — namely Xi Jinping and Central Commission for Discipline Inspection Chief Wang Qishan — are both princelings in the faction led by former President Jiang Zemin, their factional association has not been a major driver of the campaign. In fact, the four largest corruption cases (namely Bo Xilai, Liu Zhijun, Xu Caihou and Zhou Yongkang) have all involved heavyweight leaders in the Jiang camp.

If Wang is indeed apointed to the PSC, the Chinese leadership will have signaled a continued move towards greater unity, a trend that gives Xi Jinping more room to enact reforms necessary to tackle the problems facing China’s economy. The past five years have shown us that Xi did not follow Wang’s Guangdong model towards greater freedom for civil society and flirtations with direct democracy at the local level. But with these selections to the standing committee, it also seems as though he is not yet pursuing the total move towards strongman politics that some expected.

With a renewed show of unity, what we can expect is an acceleration of China’s economic reforms
.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Not too long ago western pundit was mocking china by saying they will get old before they get rich or China will stuck in "middle income trap"citing latin america. Well China is now only 5 years away from entering high income country. I don't doubt that China will reached her goal
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China should grow to World Bank High Income Definition around 2023
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| October 24, 2017 |
585958b040da28c270fc9479f3d314b0-730x430.png



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A high-income economy is defined by the World Bank as a country with a gross national income per capita US$12,236 or more in 2016, calculated using the Atlas method.

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China GNI per capita should be about
2017 $8800
2018 $9300
2019 $9800 (about the current level of Malaysia
2020 $10200 (about current world average GNI per capita)
2021 $10800
2022 $11500
2023 $12100 (At about World Bank high income definition)
2030 $16000 (about the current level of Uruguay)
2040 $22000 (about the current level of Saudi Arabia)
2050 $29000-32000 (about the current level of Spain, Italy and South Korea)

Nextbigfuture thinks that China’s movement up the World Bank classification may shift the definition upwards. The definition was slightly higher 2012-2015.

China’s 1.4 billion people could more than double the population that is classified as being in World Bank high income countries.

This progress would put China just past the World Average of GNI per capita, past Malaysia and near the level of Poland and Hungary.

Xu Hongcai, an economist from the China Center for International Economic Exchanges projects by 2020, China’s economic growth rate of more than 6.5%, 2025 may fall to about 5%, 2030 may be only 4%, and then stable at 3% -4% for some time.


The Atlas method is a method used by the World Bank to estimate the size of economies in terms of gross national income (GNI) in U.S. dollars.

A country’s GNI in local (national) currency is converted into U.S. dollars using the Atlas conversion factor, which uses a three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations, adjusted for the difference between the rate of inflation in the country (using the country’s GDP deflator), and that in a number of developed countries
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Experience and steady hand at the helm of Chinese economy Introducing the new Czar of Chinese economy. As expected Wang Yang is selected into the new politburo
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Liu He to take up reins as architect of China’s economic reform
The 65-year-old was a classmate of Xi's at the elite Beijing 101 Middle School and has been a key man for the General Secretary for several years
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OCTOBER 25, 2017 7:17 PM (UTC+8
Liu He, Director of the Central Leading Group of Financial and Economic Affairs of the Communist Party of China (CPC), looks to have been handed the task of masterminding economic reform in the country over the next five years.

Not only did the 65-year-old have his membership of the party’s Central Committee renewed on Tuesday, the last day of the week-long 19th Party Congress, but on Wednesday he was elected to the party’s 25-strong Politburo in the first plenary session of the 19th Central Committee.

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Born in Beijing in 1952, Liu was a classmate of General Secretary Xi Jinping at the elite Beijing 101 Middle School.

Liu’s father, Liu Zhiyan, a government official, committed suicide in Chengdu in 1967 during the Cultural Revolution.

Doubling down on his studies, Liu graduated from the Department of Industrial Economics at Renminbi University of China.

In 1988, he was appointed as a deputy director of the National Planning Commission, which was restructured and renamed as the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in 2003.

Between 1992 and 1993, he earned a masters degree at Seton Hall University in US. The following year, he gained a Master of Public Administration degree from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

In 1998, Liu was appointed as Deputy Director of the State Council Information Office. In 2003, he became Deputy Director of the party’s Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs. In 2011, he was Deputy Director of the Development Research Centre of the State Council.

In November 2012, he was elected to the CPC’s 205-strong Central Committee and was viewed as a “future star” in the party. Assigned to resolve the inflationary problems caused by the State Council’s 4 trillion yuan (US$602 billion) economic stimulus measures, his suggestion of launching a
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was accepted by Xi. This included such “temporary pain” measures as calling a halt to monetary easing and allowing “zombie companies” to fail.

Assigned to resolve the inflationary problems caused by the State Council’s 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus measures, his suggestion of launching a Supply Side Structural Reform was accepted by Xi

In 2013, he was appointed Vice Chairman of the NDRC and Director of the party’s Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs. In 2015, he was promoted further to the position of Deputy Party Chief in the NDRC. From April 2017, he has also led a special task force to look at economic and ecological reforms.

According to media reports, Liu has contributed as a writer on speeches on economic topics for Xi and two former party General Secretary’s Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. As he has a very similar career path to the newly-elevated Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Huning, Liu is likely to succeed Wang as CPC Policy Research Office Director and become the architect of economic reforms going forward.

Liu has been a key assistant to Xi for several years and has also played an important role in communication between the US and China. In 2009, he met with the then US Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner and the then Director of Washington’s National Economic Council Larry Summers and was seen as a middle-man for the US to contact top Chinese officials.

When Thomas Donilon – who was then National Security Advisor to US President Barack Obama – visited Beijing in 2014, Xi introduced Liu to him as a key associate.

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taxiya

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So thousands kilometres of road, hundreds of kilometres of tunnel, hundreds of bridges, scores of power stations are built by just 7,000 Chinese nationals?
This is not a well written article.
I will add another 7000 Pakistani to the work at LEAST. Or even 14,000 or more.

One just need to take a look at the photos posted by @timepass to realize how many Pakistanis are working for the projects. I also follow a facebook page that constantly upload photos from various projects.

One can also read wiki about the causality numbers of Chinese and Pakistani in the construction of Karakorum highway to realize that China only send in expert or technicians that Pakistan does not have, China does not try to monopolize the job, not in case of CEPC at least, because the whole purpose of it is to maximize Pakistan's self-reliance capability, hiring and training the locals is one of the purpose. It is not about Chinese companies to grab the most of the money back to China (salary).

I honestly sense a arrogant instinct by that author (maybe not intentional) to portrait China as money hungry grabber to suck every drop of blood from the locals. Same kind of western altitude about Chinese projects in Africa.
 
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