broadsword
Brigadier
So what must the other nations do if they want to implement compulsory EV usage?
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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So what must the other nations do if they want to implement compulsory EV usage?
Most of the hydrogen produced on an industrial scale are byproducts from natural gas and coal production. I don'the think that it is sustainable by itself.
solarz
Brigadier
And this is why it is truly foolish to compare China with Japan.
Japan is a tiny island with limited land and resources, while China is a huge country with vast tracts of uninhabited lands and enormous amounts of untapped resources.
Unlike Japan, China can and will build more nuclear plants. It can and will build more hydro-electric dams, wind farms, solar power grids, etc.
Japan is a nation optimized to near-peak efficiency. It is difficult for it to adapt to new technology because it has very little room to grow. China, on the other hand, has plenty of room for evolution and experimentation.
We've had this discussion before.
The hydrogen manufacturing and supply chain offers little scope for improvement, as it mostly mechanical processes such as electrolysis, compression, transport, decompression, burning.
So hydrogen costs are likely to be stuck where they currently are, which is way higher than petrol or electric.
In comparison, electricity production (eg. solar), battery storage and electric motors are based on semi-conductors and electronics.
And these areas are seeing huge improvements through new designs, new materials, miniaturisation etc
If Japan goes for hydrogen vehicles, it will be another Galapagos syndrome dead end for Japan.
Fortunately for Japan, the Chinese auto market is forcing Japanese carmakers to go the electric route, so that will knock some sense into the policies of the Japanese carmakers/government.
The hydrogen manufacturing and supply chain offers little scope for improvement, as it mostly mechanical processes such as electrolysis, compression, transport, decompression, burning.
So hydrogen costs are likely to be stuck where they currently are, which is way higher than petrol or electric.
In comparison, electricity production (eg. solar), battery storage and electric motors are based on semi-conductors and electronics.
And these areas are seeing huge improvements through new designs, new materials, miniaturisation etc
If Japan goes for hydrogen vehicles, it will be another Galapagos syndrome dead end for Japan.
Fortunately for Japan, the Chinese auto market is forcing Japanese carmakers to go the electric route, so that will knock some sense into the policies of the Japanese carmakers/government.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Chinese economy is doing well consumer confidence is at all time high
From bloomberg
China's Consumers Haven't Been This Confident in Two Decades
Wages are rising, growth is robust and the yuan is on a tear
Bloomberg News
September 11, 2017, 4:00 PM CDT
From
Why China's Consumer Confidence Is Surging
With things looking up across China’s economic dashboard, sentiment among consumers and households is the strongest in more than two decades.
The consumer confidence index climbed to 114.6 in July. That’s up from last May, when it dipped below 100, the line separating optimism and pessimism.
“The strong job market and the associated robust income growth have supported consumer confidence,” said Robin Xing, the chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. "Consumer confidence is further driven by the unleashed consumption potential in lower-tier cities," he said, citing their faster income growth, supportive government policies, infrastructure investment, and more affordable housing markets that make residents more willing to spend.
The strength of the world’s second-largest economy has surprised forecasters, with GDP growth accelerating to 6.9% in the first 2 quarters this year. Per capita disposable income rose 7.3 percent on year in the first half, statistics bureau data show. The yuan has been on a tear, posting the best performance in Asia over the past three months.
Meanwhile, a private consumer confidence index, compiled by Nielsen Holdings Plc, climbed to 112 in the second quarter, the best reading since at least 2009. A component tracking willingness to spend also climbed to a fresh high, while readings for job prospects and personal finances also increased.
The strength comes in part from local economic policies aimed at boosting less-developed regions as well as other reforms, and it suggests the overall economy will continue performing well, according to Vishal Bali, a managing director of Nielsen China in Shanghai. Consumers in larger cities tend to spend more on better food and beverages, while those in smaller ones are willing to spend more on better daily necessities, Nielsen’s survey found.
“Chinese consumers are becoming more willing to spend,” Bali said in a statement released along with the latest data. As “fast-pace economic growth offers more job opportunities to local residents, the development of China's rural areas and lower-tier cities will become a new driver for the country's future economic growth.”
From bloomberg
China's Consumers Haven't Been This Confident in Two Decades
Wages are rising, growth is robust and the yuan is on a tear
Bloomberg News
September 11, 2017, 4:00 PM CDT
From
Why China's Consumer Confidence Is Surging
With things looking up across China’s economic dashboard, sentiment among consumers and households is the strongest in more than two decades.
The consumer confidence index climbed to 114.6 in July. That’s up from last May, when it dipped below 100, the line separating optimism and pessimism.
“The strong job market and the associated robust income growth have supported consumer confidence,” said Robin Xing, the chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. "Consumer confidence is further driven by the unleashed consumption potential in lower-tier cities," he said, citing their faster income growth, supportive government policies, infrastructure investment, and more affordable housing markets that make residents more willing to spend.
The strength of the world’s second-largest economy has surprised forecasters, with GDP growth accelerating to 6.9% in the first 2 quarters this year. Per capita disposable income rose 7.3 percent on year in the first half, statistics bureau data show. The yuan has been on a tear, posting the best performance in Asia over the past three months.
Meanwhile, a private consumer confidence index, compiled by Nielsen Holdings Plc, climbed to 112 in the second quarter, the best reading since at least 2009. A component tracking willingness to spend also climbed to a fresh high, while readings for job prospects and personal finances also increased.
The strength comes in part from local economic policies aimed at boosting less-developed regions as well as other reforms, and it suggests the overall economy will continue performing well, according to Vishal Bali, a managing director of Nielsen China in Shanghai. Consumers in larger cities tend to spend more on better food and beverages, while those in smaller ones are willing to spend more on better daily necessities, Nielsen’s survey found.
“Chinese consumers are becoming more willing to spend,” Bali said in a statement released along with the latest data. As “fast-pace economic growth offers more job opportunities to local residents, the development of China's rural areas and lower-tier cities will become a new driver for the country's future economic growth.”
PiSigma
"the engineer"
Agree with everything you said. And also in case of most countries, that means it is coal powered cars (especially china, US). Which is a lot dirtier fuel than gasoline. Going to get worse pollution unless all the extra electricity produced for cars are going to come from renewables. Then you run into other problems, like lithium extraction and limits of economic mines. Same apply to rare earths.
For those of you that think the EVs charge at night, that is actually not true. A lot of people will plug their cars in when at work, I have seen it even at Exxon (we think they are traitors). Because if u get in a traffic jam during rush hour, it would suck to run out of battery.
There are a couple of teslas in my neighbourhood, they don't drive them in the winter when it is -15C or lower, simply because the car won't even make it to downtown and back without charging!
Going mass EV requires a brand new logistics chain that will have multiple bottlenecks. And we going from cell phone batteries to cars, a 10000x increase, a huge scale up of demand. Back in the day cars were introduced, it was from ships to cars, with a existing logistics chain and scaled down demand.
Logistics will slow or limit EV significantly, even in limitless countries like US or china. There is a reason why those of us in Exxon aren't that worried.
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Equation
Lieutenant General
That is not a reliable explanation . Coals are being replaced in China with greener renewable energy, nuclear power, hydrogen power, natural gas, and one day fusion power. Meanwhile here in the US Trump is creating more coal jobs to satisfy his voters.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
Will all coal be phased out in 20 years? Even if coal is 50% of power generation in china by 2040, and EV is 20%, that still means 10% of gasoline equivalent is made from coal. Which would be a lot dirtier than burning petroleum.
Disclaimer: I work in oil and gas (for ExxonMobil and its affiliates specifically) so I biased against EV. Take whatever I say on this subject with a giant spoon of salt.
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Equation
Lieutenant General
But you are still taking away carbon pollution from the atmosphere through fossil fuel burning cars. Coal will be there for another 20 years but it will eventually phased out. Why continue to use burning fossil fuel in cars while waiting for coals to phase out completely in decades? That's adding more pollution just by waiting alone till every energy is completely renewable.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
I forgot to say, wind and solar also have their drawbacks. Wind kills thousands of birds and bats each year, more than the tailings pond we have here in Syncrude. And solar panels recycling will be a huge issue in 15-20 years when they need to be replaced.