China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Blackstone]

Remember Tillerson barked at China during his confirmation hearing? Well, there was a reason:

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According to this source

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, the project zone, called "Blue Whale", is very close to the U-line.

I think it's a good ideal to start a joint China-Vietnam venture around the Triton Island (part of Paracel Islands) as suggested here

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A side note: The U.S. officially withdrew from TPP.

Assuming Tillerson didn't misspeak on not allowing China access to its own land territories in the SCS, then it has more to do with highballing trade re-negotiations. It means I don't think his statement had anything to do with Exxon-Vietnam dealings.

I think Tillerson pretending to threaten war is a bad gambit, because suggesting US would take extreme risks, including starting a shooting war with another great power in its backyard, doesn't justify whatever gains China may or may not yield. Also, Xi probably dones't believe Trump really would start a war just to negotiate better trade terms. And guess what? Most rational people don't believe it either.

 

[Blackstone]

Trump Administration is venturing into a Trade War. Let's see whether the American people will prosper by being protectionists, or will suffer because of his isolationist/protectionist Trade policies.

In general, I agree with President Trump's "America first" philosophy. We differ on specifics. It's with that on the table I say his protectionist policies would harm America in the long-run, for a host of different reasons, and there are lots of historical data to prove that. However, there will be some short-term gains Trump could herald as major "wins," which in turn would feed his fever to get more "wins," leading to a vicious circle. In the end, Americans (on balance) wouldn't be better off, while the entire world would be worse off.

The US better not start a War/hostilities in the South China Sea, and instigate other parties to join in their supremacy objectives. This is OUR region and we must never be fooled by any outside self-interest Power. Hopefully, the Americans have learnt their "lessons" in the ME, and in the past in Vietnam.

The United States of America is a Pacific nation, with core interests in the Indo-Pacific region, and we're not going anywhere. I pray calmer heads in Washington and Beijing work out a mutually acceptable compromise to share leadership and jointly run Asia for everyone's benefit. The alternative could be very, very bad.

 

[supercat]

Which makes good strategic sense for the Trump administration to chip away at Sino-Russsian relations and look for opportunities to drive wedges between China and Russia. I think there are some opportunities for President Trump to do that, and it all starts with improving US-Russia relations, leading to cooperation on shared interests, starting with countering Islamic extremism in the Middle East. If that works out well, then it opens the door on other shared interests too.

I suspect that most of Trump's bluff about Russia is just wishful thinking. The Russian policy makers are not that naive.

 

[supercat]

Assuming Tillerson didn't misspeak on not allowing China access to its own land territories in the SCS, then it has more to do with highballing trade re-negotiations. It means I don't think his statement had anything to do with Exxon-Vietnam dealings.

I think Tillerson pretending to threaten war is a bad gambit, because suggesting US would take extreme risks, including starting a shooting war with another great power in its backyard, doesn't justify whatever gains China may or may not yield. Also, Xi probably dones't believe Trump really would start a war just to negotiate better trade terms. And guess what? Most rational people don't believe it either.

I'm afraid the Blue Whale field (block 118) is a real hot spot in the near future. What if Vietnam decides to allow Exxon Mobile to go ahead? Would U.S. Navy back up Exxon Mobile? The good thing is, if push comes to shove, China can start to develop near-by fields. With China's industrial and financial prowess, few can win a oil-drilling and pipeline-laying competition with China.

 

[B.I.B.]

Which makes good strategic sense for the Trump administration to chip away at Sino-Russsian relations and look for opportunities to drive wedges between China and Russia. I think there are some opportunities for President Trump to do that, and it all starts with improving US-Russia relations, leading to cooperation on shared interests, starting with countering Islamic extremism in the Middle East. If that works out well, then it opens the door on other shared interests too.

Hmmmm.......Today's enviroment is totally different as to what existed in the 1960's where China/US. trade was non existent. Futhermore there is no animosity between Russia and China like there was in the 1960's.

 

[Blackstone]

I suspect that most of Trump's bluff about Russia is just wishful thinking. The Russian policy makers are not that naive.

Russians aren't naive to be sure, but it's in their interests to gain maneuvering room and put both US and China off balance. In the short-run, Russia enjoys two suitors in Washington and Beijing. Moscow could play the two giants against each other and look for opportunities to improve its economic and geopolitical positions. Putin has played a relatively weak hand well, and there's every reason to believe he'll try and continue to improve his positions.

 

[Blackstone]

I'm afraid the Blue Whale field (block 118) is a real hot spot in the near future. What if Vietnam decides to allow Exxon Mobile to go ahead? Would U.S. Navy back up Exxon Mobile? The good thing is, if push comes to shove, China can start to develop near-by fields. With China's industrial and financial prowess, few can win a oil-drilling and pipeline-laying competition with China.

Seems to me the chances of Exxon drilling in block 118 isn't high, because every insurance carrier in the world knows China's stridently against it, so if Exxon could get insurance at all, it would have to pay high risk premiums. Vietnam, on the other hand, would love to have the USN intercede and directly keep PLAN at bay, but it can't be assured accidents and/or events wouldn't spin out of control, leading to a conflict.

I hope both Washington and Beijing play this hand very carefully, because we're talking about core interests China vs. core interests of the US. Enough said.

 

[Blackstone]

Hmmmm.......Today's enviroment is totally different as to what existed in the 1960's where China/US. trade was non existent. Futhermore there is no animosity between Russia and China like there was in the 1960's.

That is a reasonable perspective, and we could sit here agreeing all day. Nevertheless, the real world has a way of imposing itself on our fantasies, and one only needs to do a casual search on Google or Bing to find many articles by Russian pundits/experts with dire warnings of a Revanchist China taking over the Russian Far East, and millions of illegal Chinese immigrants crossing into Siberia to do just that. It matters little facts show the opposite, and official Russian actions and statements say the same. Russians will continue to fear Chinese recovery of what it lost in the RFE, and I don't think it's unreasonable for them to feel that way.

 

[solarz]

I think Tillerson pretending to threaten war is a bad gambit, because suggesting US would take extreme risks, including starting a shooting war with another great power in its backyard, doesn't justify whatever gains China may or may not yield. Also, Xi probably dones't believe Trump really would start a war just to negotiate better trade terms. And guess what? Most rational people don't believe it either.

It's a lot more worrying that a high ranked US government official is now publicly threatening war on behalf of the interests of a private corporation... and nobody seems to be picking that up.

 

[vesicles]

Assuming Tillerson didn't misspeak on not allowing China access to its own land territories in the SCS, then it has more to do with highballing trade re-negotiations. It means I don't think his statement had anything to do with Exxon-Vietnam dealings.

I think Tillerson pretending to threaten war is a bad gambit, because suggesting US would take extreme risks, including starting a shooting war with another great power in its backyard, doesn't justify whatever gains China may or may not yield. Also, Xi probably dones't believe Trump really would start a war just to negotiate better trade terms. And guess what? Most rational people don't believe it either.

Well, from how Trump treated his imagined conflict with the media, he may not be as sane and as rational as we hoped. I mean, what sane person would declare war on media? What chance does he actually hope of winning such war? The very definition of free press means that the executive branch of the government has no control over the media. The only thing he can do is talk while the media puts him under the powerful microscope and analyze him to death. The moment he does anything, anything concrete, to the media, he will be impeached. Yet, he is still barkin at the media... that definitely brings his sanity into question...

It's worrisome to me, to say the least.