Chinese purchase of Su-35

[broadsword]

And that is why I would be quite disappointed if the sale did not go through. There will be some chinks in its air defenses that need to be covered.

I have bought into the "hype" and there is no refund.

 

[vesicles]

I think the suggestion that China was only interested in Su-35 for the engines was always dubious at best, and there was never anything to suggest that was the case.

There are other reasons for why the Air Force may have been intersted in Su-35, anything from wanting a fighter with Su-35s maneuvrability for DACT, to simply having additional flanker airframes as a short term stop gap due to a temporary delay in J-16 induction.

I don't agree with the stop gap hypothesis. It's not like China is desperately trying to gather enough fighters for some near future conflict that would come in the next couple years. If China has the patience to wait a decade for a carrier, they won't mind wait a couple more years for the J-16.

It is evident that China plans their weapons development in a very methodological manner. And in that case, they take into account that things will progress more slowly than they and everyone else would have liked. A good example would be their carrier program. Instead of going directly to a flat top, they decided to build another Liaoning-like carrier just so that they can get familiar wih the technology.

So I don't see why they would all of a sudden become so impatient with the J-16 that they would spend billions to buy the Su-35.

 

[Blitzo]

I don't agree with the stop gap hypothesis. It's not like China is desperately trying to gather enough fighters for some near future conflict that would come in the next couple years. If China has the patience to wait a decade for a carrier, they won't mind wait a couple more years for the J-16.

It is evident that China plans their weapons development in a very methodological manner. And in that case, they take into account that things will progress more slowly than they and everyone else would have liked. A good example would be their carrier program. Instead of going directly to a flat top, they decided to build another Liaoning-like carrier just so that they can get familiar wih the technology.

So I don't see why they would all of a sudden become so impatient with the J-16 that they would spend billions to buy the Su-35.

I don't think it's necessarily "only" for a stop-gap -- I'm sure Su-35 offers other capabilities that they initially would have considered useful as well. Super manevrability, access to latest exportable Russian fighter systems, having another Russian platform to use continued Russian stocks etc, and even further strengthening of Russian-Chinese military ties.

The fact that this Su-35 deal took so long to come through (we've heard about it for so many years) indicates China definitely was not particularly urgent to get their hands on the aircraft, but a combination of additional factors eventually must have tipped China's hand.

I find such an explanation much more likely than thinking that they're buying Su-35s just for the engines... because that makes far less sense to me.

 

[plawolf]

Well, these latest rumours would seem to support my long held belief that the Su35 deal was mostly political.

It is a 'gift' the Chinese government agreed to give to help out Russia, with little real enthusiasm from the PLAAF.

Worse, it seems the Russians might be pushing their luck too far by trying to pass off sub-standard monkey models as the real thing, which is giving PLAAF an excuse to threaten to kill a deal they never really wanted.

Realistically, I think the PLAAF will only find full spec Su35s acceptable, as at least that gives them a true benchmark of what state-of-the-art Russian weapons can do to measure their own domestic systems against.

In which case those 24 Su35s will make a perfect dedicated aggressor regiment, that can double up as enforcers if the PLAAF wants to show some teeth to the likes of Japan, since they could happily light up Japanese fighters with the Su35s' radars ( as Japanese F15s have already done to Chinese fighters) without worrying about giving away operationally useful wartime frequencies.

Failing that, I think the PLAAF will want to gut the deal and take the Su35s without radar or avionics (at a fraction of the price) and just put in all Chinese systems after they have been delivered to use them to make up numbers of their Flanker fleet.

If the Russians don't agree to either option, and the PLAAF can cite sub-par performance as a result of deliberate downgrading, that will pissing the Chinese leadership off enough that they will feel any diplomatic fallout to cancelling the deal will be worth it to remind the Russians not to try and take advantage of Chinese generosity.

 

[PanAsian]

I don't agree with the stop gap hypothesis. It's not like China is desperately trying to gather enough fighters for some near future conflict that would come in the next couple years. If China has the patience to wait a decade for a carrier, they won't mind wait a couple more years for the J-16.

It is evident that China plans their weapons development in a very methodological manner. And in that case, they take into account that things will progress more slowly than they and everyone else would have liked. A good example would be their carrier program. Instead of going directly to a flat top, they decided to build another Liaoning-like carrier just so that they can get familiar wih the technology.

So I don't see why they would all of a sudden become so impatient with the J-16 that they would spend billions to buy the Su-35.

Those assumptions underestimate the existing as well as potential additional military pressure and/or ratcheting up of tensions that can be set upon China by the US and an array of other countries the US can line up. See WTH thread today for an example.

Unless the Russian equipment is truly disappointing, or if this is just the rumor imploding on itself, Chinese rejection of the deal is penny wise and pound foolish in terms of overall Sino-Russian relations. If what is described is happening then it is probably a negotiating tactic to get a better deal.

 

[latenlazy]

Those assumptions underestimate the existing as well as potential additional military pressure and/or ratcheting up of tensions that can be set upon China by the US and an array of other countries the US can line up. See WTH thread today for an example.

Unless the Russian equipment is truly disappointing, or if this is just the rumor imploding on itself, Chinese rejection of the deal is penny wise and pound foolish in terms of overall Sino-Russian relations. If what is described is happening then it is probably a negotiating tactic to get a better deal.

Except the geostrategic balance suggests that China has the leverage in the relationship, and doesn't need to keep buying weapons to maintain the relationship (J-11s anyone?). That doesn't look to be changing soon.

 

[Pmichael]

I feel the discussion about the Su-35 is rahter pointless. 24 aircraft in the next years wouldn't be enough for go through the work of integrating them into frontline service.
The silly theory of using their engines for the J-20 doesn't make sense at all.

It's just a silly deal in the first place.

 

[kwaigonegin]

It made sense when the deal was first formalized many many moons ago however for whatever reason that caused the delays, the less crucial it became for the buyer.
I think this is a classic case of over promised and underdeliver right from the start however I think there is a still a chance of it going through if the 2 parties make concessions to push it through.
China doesn't really need the 35s as much as a few years ago but if they could get it for a couple tons of rabbit meat and chickens why not.

 

[PanAsian]

Except the geostrategic balance suggests that China has the leverage in the relationship, and doesn't need to keep buying weapons to maintain the relationship (J-11s anyone?). That doesn't look to be changing soon.

Actually the big picture geostrategic balance shows that China and Russia need each other to successfully resist a powerful array of countries looking to undermine them, if one falls so will the other. If the two help each other survive they certainly will as the two are very different but have complementary strengths and weaknesses. If the two can build enough trust to share and help each other thrive they stand a high chance of succeeding but they appear to continue keeping each other at arm's length.

 

[montyp165]

Actually the big picture geostrategic balance shows that China and Russia need each other to successfully resist a powerful array of countries looking to undermine them, if one falls so will the other. If the two help each other survive they certainly will as the two are very different but have complementary strengths and weaknesses. If the two can build enough trust to share and help each other thrive they stand a high chance of succeeding but they appear to continue keeping each other at arm's length.

That is true, the question is still whether this specific deal is actually worthwhile (does it even help the Russians decrease the cost of their frontline aircraft procurement for example, let alone helping China's strategic requirements)?