If we strike a deal with Japan, we're buying more than submarines
Asian power politics must be factored into any defence contract decisions.
Many people in Canberra think we should partner with Japan to build our new submarines, whether or not they offer the best boats for the money, because Japan's bid is much more than a commercial deal. It's the basis for a closer strategic commitment as well, so they think we'd get two birds with one stone.
But there are big risks in this, both to our submarine capability and to our relations with Japan. We need to understand those risks before taking a decision.
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We must be quite clear about this. Tokyo expects that in return for its help to build our submarines, it would receive not just many of billions of dollars, but clear understandings that Australia will support Japan politically, strategically and even militarily against China. That is why Japan is bidding.
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Faced with this, they think Beijing will back off. Then America's leadership in Asia would be restored, and everything would return to the way it used to be before China got stroppy. In other words, supporters of an alliance with Japan are sure it would never be tested, because simply creating it would help ensure that China's threat would disappear. And if that happens, it matters much less whose submarines we buy, because they won't be needed.
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It's much more likely that China will not be deterred by any messages we send through buying submarines and building an alliance with Japan. Instead, it will keep claiming more political and strategic weight in Asia, and tensions will keep rising. And what would an alliance with Japan mean then? Is it wise for us to commit ourselves to support Japan against China if, as is quite likely, strategic tensions between them keep growing?
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These are not hypothetical questions. In the new power politics of the Asian Century, they are very real, and we have to take them seriously because they are certainly taken seriously in Tokyo. An alliance of the kind Tokyo clearly seeks would mortgage Australia's relationship with China, and indeed our entire future in Asia, to the troubled future of China-Japan relations. This is, quite obviously, not in our interests.
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In reality, no matter what Tony Abbott might believe, Australia is not going to give Japan the strategic support it wants. We are very unlikely to seriously jeopardise our links with Beijing to do Japan any favours – let alone go to war with China at Japan's behest. So we would let Japan down.
And that has huge implications for the submarine deal. Japan is only willing to share its ultra-sensitive submarine secrets because it expects us to be its close ally. If we don't give Japan what it expects from the deal, we won't get what we expect from it: unstinting help to make sure our submarines project succeeds.
What kind of co-operation will we get from Japan if in say, five or 10 years, with the project well under way but no subs yet delivered, Japan faces a confrontation with China and we don't give it the support it expects? Why wouldn't Japan walk away from the project, or start putting tight limits on what it is willing to share with us?
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I would expect huge saving(s) if combined with purchasing the French subs
