Recent discussion in the j-10 thread spiked my interest so here's a small analysis about future production and future fleet numbers.
As a starting point i shall use pre j10b delivery point, scramble.nl's orbat before it included the first j10b.
So back then we had combined total of plaaf and planaf tactical inventory:
18 units of old J7II/h
11 units of j7e/g
3 units of j8f
3 units od j8h (or older modernized to H standard)
1 unit of old j8B
3 units of recce j8r/fr (these may be smaller than standard combat units?)
4 units of Q5d
3 units of Q5e/l
5 units of su27/j11a (unrelated comment: this means even more old su27sk/ubk have been retired?)
8 units of j11b
10 units of j10a + several (12?) airshow demo team airframes
10 units of j7/a
(plus some j15 but those don't seem relevant to what i'm after here so i'll ignore them for here on)
Some units are brigades, most are regiments, J11 and jh7 all come in 24 planes per unit, as far as i can tell. All but one j10 unit comes at 28 airframes per unit. J8 i am not sure about, i would say 20 to 24 planes per unit, probably less for recce variants. e/g variant of j7 i estimate at around 24-28 per unit, *without* the two seat trainers. for older j7h and even older j7II it just doesn't make sense those regiments are operating at full strength. Their airframes are too old for that to work even if pilots fly just 120 hrs/year. Something like a third of nominal regiment strength seems much more realistic if those units are to have some semblance of operational capability. Remaining Q5 are newer, thankfully, but i am not sure what their standard unit size is, so i estimate between 28 and 32.
Also, total number in the fleet is always going to be a bit higher than unit number tally due to various small detachments in weapon test and tactics development units.
So with that in mind the total *rough* tally a year ago was (using average values where applicable):
100 su30 (didn't mention them before as we have exact number for them, sans possible attrition losses)
156 operational old j7 (out of nominal 468) rounded to 160.
286 j7e/g rounded to 290
66 j8h rounded to 70
66 j8f rounded to 70
30-60 j8r/fr??
120 Q5d
90 Q5 e/L rounded up to 100
120 su27/j11a
192 j11b rounded up to 200
288 j10a/as rounded up to 300
240 jh7/a
Since then, we've established that current production levels for domestic purposes seem to be 24 j16 per year and at least 44 j10b/s (38 j10b and 6 j10s) per year. Plus some j15, but like i said, those are not relevant to me right now.
Proper production of said two planes began with 2014. It always takes some time for planes to form units and then some more time until we get proof of it.
Scenario 1:
Assuming j16 will interchange with j11d when it arrives, and assuming j10b/s production is indeed 44 per year and won't change.
in 2025 there should be:
no more j7 (IF number of j7 regiments with old j7 gets cut down by two thirds)
or if all those regiments are kept AND are upgraded to full strength then there will remain some 260ish more j7e/g.
There will remain some 60-ish j8F and 60ish Q5L
as well as 100 j11a,
200 j11b
300 j10a/s
240 jh7/a
260+ j16/d/j11d
480+ j10b/as/bs?
Of course, what is wrong with above scenario? It lacks j20. Possibly even j31. Lets take those into account.
Scenario 2:
Assuming full scale j31 production will replace flanker production from 2023 onward (year selected based on the Dubai air show interview with avic project manager's speculation off 2022 IOC)
While assuming j31 replacing flanker production 1 for 1 is somewhat plausible, it's easier for me to presume any possible j31 production will first go towards carrier wings, so i don't have to change the 2025 list. But we can't possibly assume j10b will stop when j20 starts at chengdu. Furthermore, it doesn't seem plausible that j10b production would be shrunk after just a few years (around 2017-2018 when j20 ramps up properly) so more room for j20 is available. Thus my best guess is that j20 production would be on top of j10. Question is by how much. Will chengdu really be building close to 70 or so combat planes per year??? if 24 j20 per year is assumed it might. Since i have to assume something, i'll go with 12 j20 per year from 2018 or 24 j20 per year from 2019. (realistically it'd be a gradual ramp up, but here i'll use zero-to-12 and zero-to-24 to simplify) Less or more than that just seems unrealistic.
So:
in 2025 there should be:
no more j7 (IF number of j7 regiments with old j7 gets cut down by two thirds)
or if all those regiments are kept AND are upgraded to full strength then there will remain some 260ish more j7e/g.
If 12 j20 per year production rate is used, then some 40ish j8f may remain. If 24 j20 per year is used, then no j8f may remain.*
as well as 100 j11a,
200 j11b
300 j10a/s
240 jh7/a
260+ j16/d/j11d
480+ j10b/as/bs?
84-144 j20
Issue with j20 coming to regiments is, of course, what happens with planes that were made in 2000s and are just 20-25 years old. Would they get replaced by new planes? I've *never* seen such an example happen. So i'll assume answer is no. Rather, I think it's more likely even some more j7e get retired, their regiments get j10a handmedowns, ex j10a regiments get new j10b, and regiments that would've gotten those j10b get some j20 instead and possibly change their role a bit.
That is also why i think old j7 regiments will not be cut, because otherwise there would be no old regiments to receive the handmedown effect of new j20 coming online. Only other solution would be to form new regiments, which would be silly if you've deactivated them just several years ago. then again, all this *might* indicate that 12 j20 per year production rate *is* somewhat based in reality, however low it may seen. I still think it's more likely all those regiments will be kept and upgraded to full strength, though.
So if 24 j20 per year is used, then some 240-ish j7e/g would remain instead.
Another possibility is that j20 will actually be used for recce missions as well. And some of its production will go towards replacing the old j8r, then as time goes on approaching 2040 replace every last bit of j8fr as well. Recce missions are important and it's not overkill to use a high end plane to do them - especially if a non specialized variant can be used, a regular j20 with recce equipment in its bomb bay. (there are possible issues with that, i know, but lets leave it for some other discussion)
If we are bold enough to go another decade and into 2035 things get complicated.
100 j11a would need replacement for sure. Possibly even most su30. 48 original jh7 would definitely need to be replaced, possibly even some of the newer jh7a would be as well. Trouble here is there's a decent chance of whole new type of strike plane coming into service by 2035, possibly even by 2030. Some large, jet engine Ucavs may also appear. Theoretically another single engine next gen plane (though that would surely replace j10b production) as well but for simplicity's sake lets leave out the Ucav and single engine plane out right now. Lets just assume a large striker will appear and its out-of-thin-air-guess production rate of 12 per year would play out from 2030 onward. another assumption is j31 replacing all flanker production for plaaf.
That's 440 more j10b, 240 j31, 120-240 j20, 60 new strikers.
As listed before, some 250 planes would warrant replacement due to their age. Though, with attrition accounted for and even some additional jh7a retirements i'll use 300 as the number needing replacement.
Here we finally see the problem. Even without UCAVs, there would be an oversupply of 560 to 680 planes! And this is assuming we've previously kept all those old j7 regiments and upgraded them to full strength.
Which leads me conclusion:
Either A) plaaf/planaf will be forming completely new and additional regiments, increasing its numbers by at least 25% by 2035 (possibly more if ucavs and more next gen strikers are included) [also note that i never really counted carrier air wings which seem to be forming on top of existing planaf structure. so actual plaaf/planaf numbers here might be even over 30% greater by 2035]
B) plaaf/planaf will be keeping the numbers as they are today, but will be retiring planes before they run out of their flying hours, meaning retiring hundreds of j10a, jh7a and j11b, in an effort to quickly modernize.
B2) despite j7s and j8s clearly serving for 30+ years, j10a and j11b were NOT designed for such lifespans (at their respective flight usage) so their retirement will not really be premature.
C) Production rates for plaaf/planaf will soon start slowing down and instead of 70+ (before j20) and 85+ after (j20) they will settle down at around 50-ish airframes per year.
Of course, any combination of any of these possibilities is also plausible.
Which do you think is more likely?
As a starting point i shall use pre j10b delivery point, scramble.nl's orbat before it included the first j10b.
So back then we had combined total of plaaf and planaf tactical inventory:
18 units of old J7II/h
11 units of j7e/g
3 units of j8f
3 units od j8h (or older modernized to H standard)
1 unit of old j8B
3 units of recce j8r/fr (these may be smaller than standard combat units?)
4 units of Q5d
3 units of Q5e/l
5 units of su27/j11a (unrelated comment: this means even more old su27sk/ubk have been retired?)
8 units of j11b
10 units of j10a + several (12?) airshow demo team airframes
10 units of j7/a
(plus some j15 but those don't seem relevant to what i'm after here so i'll ignore them for here on)
Some units are brigades, most are regiments, J11 and jh7 all come in 24 planes per unit, as far as i can tell. All but one j10 unit comes at 28 airframes per unit. J8 i am not sure about, i would say 20 to 24 planes per unit, probably less for recce variants. e/g variant of j7 i estimate at around 24-28 per unit, *without* the two seat trainers. for older j7h and even older j7II it just doesn't make sense those regiments are operating at full strength. Their airframes are too old for that to work even if pilots fly just 120 hrs/year. Something like a third of nominal regiment strength seems much more realistic if those units are to have some semblance of operational capability. Remaining Q5 are newer, thankfully, but i am not sure what their standard unit size is, so i estimate between 28 and 32.
Also, total number in the fleet is always going to be a bit higher than unit number tally due to various small detachments in weapon test and tactics development units.
So with that in mind the total *rough* tally a year ago was (using average values where applicable):
100 su30 (didn't mention them before as we have exact number for them, sans possible attrition losses)
156 operational old j7 (out of nominal 468) rounded to 160.
286 j7e/g rounded to 290
66 j8h rounded to 70
66 j8f rounded to 70
30-60 j8r/fr??
120 Q5d
90 Q5 e/L rounded up to 100
120 su27/j11a
192 j11b rounded up to 200
288 j10a/as rounded up to 300
240 jh7/a
Since then, we've established that current production levels for domestic purposes seem to be 24 j16 per year and at least 44 j10b/s (38 j10b and 6 j10s) per year. Plus some j15, but like i said, those are not relevant to me right now.
Proper production of said two planes began with 2014. It always takes some time for planes to form units and then some more time until we get proof of it.
Scenario 1:
Assuming j16 will interchange with j11d when it arrives, and assuming j10b/s production is indeed 44 per year and won't change.
in 2025 there should be:
no more j7 (IF number of j7 regiments with old j7 gets cut down by two thirds)
or if all those regiments are kept AND are upgraded to full strength then there will remain some 260ish more j7e/g.
There will remain some 60-ish j8F and 60ish Q5L
as well as 100 j11a,
200 j11b
300 j10a/s
240 jh7/a
260+ j16/d/j11d
480+ j10b/as/bs?
Of course, what is wrong with above scenario? It lacks j20. Possibly even j31. Lets take those into account.
Scenario 2:
Assuming full scale j31 production will replace flanker production from 2023 onward (year selected based on the Dubai air show interview with avic project manager's speculation off 2022 IOC)
While assuming j31 replacing flanker production 1 for 1 is somewhat plausible, it's easier for me to presume any possible j31 production will first go towards carrier wings, so i don't have to change the 2025 list. But we can't possibly assume j10b will stop when j20 starts at chengdu. Furthermore, it doesn't seem plausible that j10b production would be shrunk after just a few years (around 2017-2018 when j20 ramps up properly) so more room for j20 is available. Thus my best guess is that j20 production would be on top of j10. Question is by how much. Will chengdu really be building close to 70 or so combat planes per year??? if 24 j20 per year is assumed it might. Since i have to assume something, i'll go with 12 j20 per year from 2018 or 24 j20 per year from 2019. (realistically it'd be a gradual ramp up, but here i'll use zero-to-12 and zero-to-24 to simplify) Less or more than that just seems unrealistic.
So:
in 2025 there should be:
no more j7 (IF number of j7 regiments with old j7 gets cut down by two thirds)
or if all those regiments are kept AND are upgraded to full strength then there will remain some 260ish more j7e/g.
If 12 j20 per year production rate is used, then some 40ish j8f may remain. If 24 j20 per year is used, then no j8f may remain.*
as well as 100 j11a,
200 j11b
300 j10a/s
240 jh7/a
260+ j16/d/j11d
480+ j10b/as/bs?
84-144 j20
Issue with j20 coming to regiments is, of course, what happens with planes that were made in 2000s and are just 20-25 years old. Would they get replaced by new planes? I've *never* seen such an example happen. So i'll assume answer is no. Rather, I think it's more likely even some more j7e get retired, their regiments get j10a handmedowns, ex j10a regiments get new j10b, and regiments that would've gotten those j10b get some j20 instead and possibly change their role a bit.
That is also why i think old j7 regiments will not be cut, because otherwise there would be no old regiments to receive the handmedown effect of new j20 coming online. Only other solution would be to form new regiments, which would be silly if you've deactivated them just several years ago. then again, all this *might* indicate that 12 j20 per year production rate *is* somewhat based in reality, however low it may seen. I still think it's more likely all those regiments will be kept and upgraded to full strength, though.
So if 24 j20 per year is used, then some 240-ish j7e/g would remain instead.
Another possibility is that j20 will actually be used for recce missions as well. And some of its production will go towards replacing the old j8r, then as time goes on approaching 2040 replace every last bit of j8fr as well. Recce missions are important and it's not overkill to use a high end plane to do them - especially if a non specialized variant can be used, a regular j20 with recce equipment in its bomb bay. (there are possible issues with that, i know, but lets leave it for some other discussion)
If we are bold enough to go another decade and into 2035 things get complicated.
100 j11a would need replacement for sure. Possibly even most su30. 48 original jh7 would definitely need to be replaced, possibly even some of the newer jh7a would be as well. Trouble here is there's a decent chance of whole new type of strike plane coming into service by 2035, possibly even by 2030. Some large, jet engine Ucavs may also appear. Theoretically another single engine next gen plane (though that would surely replace j10b production) as well but for simplicity's sake lets leave out the Ucav and single engine plane out right now. Lets just assume a large striker will appear and its out-of-thin-air-guess production rate of 12 per year would play out from 2030 onward. another assumption is j31 replacing all flanker production for plaaf.
That's 440 more j10b, 240 j31, 120-240 j20, 60 new strikers.
As listed before, some 250 planes would warrant replacement due to their age. Though, with attrition accounted for and even some additional jh7a retirements i'll use 300 as the number needing replacement.
Here we finally see the problem. Even without UCAVs, there would be an oversupply of 560 to 680 planes! And this is assuming we've previously kept all those old j7 regiments and upgraded them to full strength.
Which leads me conclusion:
Either A) plaaf/planaf will be forming completely new and additional regiments, increasing its numbers by at least 25% by 2035 (possibly more if ucavs and more next gen strikers are included) [also note that i never really counted carrier air wings which seem to be forming on top of existing planaf structure. so actual plaaf/planaf numbers here might be even over 30% greater by 2035]
B) plaaf/planaf will be keeping the numbers as they are today, but will be retiring planes before they run out of their flying hours, meaning retiring hundreds of j10a, jh7a and j11b, in an effort to quickly modernize.
B2) despite j7s and j8s clearly serving for 30+ years, j10a and j11b were NOT designed for such lifespans (at their respective flight usage) so their retirement will not really be premature.
C) Production rates for plaaf/planaf will soon start slowing down and instead of 70+ (before j20) and 85+ after (j20) they will settle down at around 50-ish airframes per year.
Of course, any combination of any of these possibilities is also plausible.
Which do you think is more likely?
but maybe a part of new J-10B have replaced 1, 2 ? or replace A-5 eventualy first J-8, all is possible we know almost nothing ! or a lot of time after.
