ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

related, by MilitaryTimes:
Carter: 'Combat' death does not mean 'combat role'

...
... also related is this:
Pentagon Chief Expects More Anti-IS Raids After Captives Freed
US Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Friday he expected more raids targeting the Islamic State group similar to the mission that freed dozens of captives but left an American commando dead in Iraq.

Carter's comments came as President Barack Obama tapped veteran Iraq expert Brett McGurk to coordinate the troubled US-led campaign against the self-proclaimed Islamic State group, replacing General John Allen, who served in the post for a year.

On Thursday, US Special Operations Forces and Kurdish forces stormed an IS-run prison near Hawijah in northern Iraq, freeing some 70 captives who were facing imminent execution.

Of those prisoners, more than 20 were members of the Iraqi security forces. Five IS militants were also captured and several others killed, the Pentagon said.

The raid marked an apparent break with the stated role of US forces, who are in Iraq to support government forces but do not directly engage in combat in line with Obama's "no boots on the ground" policy.

But Carter said it was likely not a one-off, noting that a "significant cache" of intelligence had been retrieved.

"I expect we'll do more of this kind of thing," Carter said.

"One of the reasons for that is that you learn a great deal because you collect the documentation, you collect various electronic equipment and so forth... So the sum of all this will be some valuable intelligence."

The highly decorated soldier killed, Master Sergeant Joshua Wheeler, was the first American serviceman to die in action in Iraq since 2011.

"This is combat, things are complicated," Carter said in discussing the circumstances of Wheeler's death.

Carter said some of the captives rescued confirmed they had expected to be executed that day, with their graves already dug.

"Not only did our support help prevent another mass killing, we enabled those partners of ours to deliver ISIL a clear defeat," he said.

The operation near Hawijah was part of a broader US-led campaign that began in June last year targeting IS, which has sought to carve an Islamic caliphate out of large parts of Iraq and Syria.

The disparate international coalition has sometimes struggled, with the White House reluctant to dramatically gear up US involvement and key members of the grouping holding divergent aims and differing degrees of commitment.

The task has only become more complex since Russia and Iran intervened to prop up the Syrian government and deepen ties with Baghdad.

McGurk had most recently been Allen's deputy, focusing largely on efforts to work with Sunni tribal leaders and the Iraqi government to take back Ramadi.

Praise For US Commando

Wheeler was reportedly part of the elite Delta Force, which specializes in hostage rescues and counterterrorism operations. He first entered the US Army as an infantryman in 1995.

The soldier, who had been awarded 11 Bronze Stars and other commendations, was deployed at least 17 times, largely in support of combat operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, according to the Army.

He received the Purple Heart posthumously.

His body will arrive Saturday in the United States, where Carter, his wife and Wheeler's family will be present.

"This is someone who saw the team that he was advising and assisting coming under attack. And he rushed to help them and made it possible for them to be effective," Carter said.

"And in doing that, lost his own life. That's why I'm proud of him... He ran to the sound of the gun."

The defense chief also noted that Wheeler's death "reminds us of the dangers that the coalition forces confront in Iraq, but also of the important assistance they provide local forces as they lead the fight against a barbaric enemy."

The United States has 3,500 troops in Iraq to train, advise and assist Iraqi forces in fighting the IS group.

The US forces did not intend to go inside the compound or be directly involved in the raid, "but the Kurds came under heavy fire," a defense official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"They were in need of protection so the US troops engaged to finish the job."

Wheeler is survived by a wife and four sons.
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nicky

Junior Member
putin needs to adopt western approach to benefit his budget by massive direct(or indirect) support of those wishing to undermine little rich gulf monarchies. religious unrest, subversive actions, disruptions of transportation, border wars, etc., might quickly raise the price of oil.
us oil companies will also benefit from that.
 
Your maps show very clearly that distinguishing between more and less moderate "rebels" doesn't make sense. :rolleyes:

delft, it seems to me Mr. Lavrov would not agree with your assessment:
"We are ready to include the patriotic opposition, among them the Free Syrian Army, to support them from the air," he said in an interview aired Saturday on state television channel Rossiya-1.
Russia, U.S. discuss organizing Syria political process
(later in the article I was disgusted by the expired biscuits so don't post it all, you may read it or don't at:
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delft

Brigadier
delft, it seems to me Mr. Lavrov would not agree with your assessment:
Russia, U.S. discuss organizing Syria political process
(later in the article I was disgusted by the expired biscuits so don't post it all, you may read it or don't at:
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Earlier Lavrov doubted that FSA really exists. Thus this kind of remark:
But he said the Americans would not give Moscow the locations of the opposition group and the locations of terrorist groups.
 
delft, it seems to me Mr. Lavrov would not agree with your assessment:

"We are ready to include the patriotic opposition, among them the Free Syrian Army, to support them from the air," he said in an interview aired Saturday on state television channel Rossiya-1.
...
... since 07:40 at:
(in fact he referred to it as "so called Free Syrian Army")
 
Earlier Lavrov doubted that FSA really exists. Thus this kind of remark:
... what are you talking about?? when is "earlier"?

you can listen since 07:40 at:
(in fact he referred to it as "so called Free Syrian Army")

EDIT
anyway, ТАСС quoted
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this info:
Syrian rebels reject Russian help against ISIS
Syria's Western-backed opposition on Saturday rejected a Russian offer to assist them against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group and dismissed Moscow's call for new elections.

"Russia is bombing the Free Syrian Army and now it wants to cooperate with us, while it remains committed to Assad? We don't understand Russia at all!" said Lieutenant Colonel Ahmad Saoud, a spokesman for the Division 13 rebel group.

Moscow began an aerial campaign in Syria on September 30, saying it was targeting ISIS and other "terrorists".

But moderate and Islamist rebels say they have been the target of Moscow's strikes, and that the campaign is intended to prop up President Bashar al-Assad's regime rather than eradicate ISIS.

Samir Nashar, a member of the Syrian National Coalition, the opposition's main political body, was equally dismissive of an alliance between moderate rebels and Russia.

"Instead of talking about their willingness to support the Free Syrian Army, they should stop bombing it," he told AFP.

"Eighty percent of the Russian strikes are targeting the FSA."

The comments came after Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Saturday that Moscow was ready to support Syria's "patriotic opposition, including the so-called Free Syrian Army, from the air".

"The main thing for us is to approach the people fully in charge of representing these or those armed groups fighting terrorism among other things," he told Rossiya 1 television station.

Lavrov also told the station that he hoped to see political progress in Syria and a move toward new elections.

"I am convinced that most serious politicians have learned their lessons and with regards to Syria a correct understanding of the situation is developing," he said.

"This gives us hope that the political process will move forward in the foreseeable future, by using outside players, to have all Syrians sit at the negotiating table."

"Of course, it's necessary to prepare for both parliamentary and presidential polls," he added.

Nashar said the proposal of new elections now was absurd and accused Moscow of trying "to circumvent the demands of the Syrian people for Assad's departure".

"The Russians are ignoring the real facts on the ground, with millions who have been displaced inside and outside Syria, where cities are destroyed every day," he said.

"What elections are they talking about holding under such circumstances?"

Syria last held presidential elections in June 2014, with Assad re-elected for a seven-year term with 88.7 percent of the vote.
The election was dismissed by the opposition and condemned internationally.

The country last held parliamentary elections in May 2012, and it is in theory due to hold its next legislative vote in 2016.

Cooperation with Egypt and Iran
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shukri have agreed to continue cooperation in order to help find a political solution to the Syria conflict, the Russian Foreign ministry said on Saturday.

In a separate telephone conversation later on Saturday, Lavrov and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif agreed to strengthen their cooperation to bring stability and security to the Middle East.

The telephone conversation was at Moscow’s request and followed Lavrov’s talks with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey about Syria in Vienna on Friday, the ministry said in a statement on its website.

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thunderchief

Senior Member
though i agree with your analysis as an overview of past-practice, there is a recent report which details that contemporary Syrian coalition tactics, both regular and militia are, in fact, responsive to rebel tactics and contemporary circumstances. they describe their slow-going tactics as reconnaissance-by-battle, and the logic thereof is impeccable, as the progress is slow but significantly less costly. i'll find and post the link.

When you calculate the cost, attrition and human suffering of long low-intensity conflict vs blitzkrieg, at the bottom line blitzkrieg is far less costly although casualties could be very high in some days .

Syrian rebels, from ISIS to so called moderates, were and are mostly infantry force . They started as guerrilla, Assad failed to contain them, and they now fight mostly in conventional ways (barring suicide bomber tactics) . They do have some armor and artillery but this is vastly inferior to SAA both in quantity in quality . They also have certain amount of ATGMs like TOW, but overall their firepower is limited .

Conventional military tactic against such force would be to select certain spots in front line, identify possible enemy fortifications, destroy or suppress them using superior range of your artillery and air force and then push with strong mechanized attack (brigade sized units) trough enemy lines . Additional advantage is that rebels do not have continuous front, they mostly hold certain strongposts .Therefore, organized army could easily pocket them and then surround those pocket , cut off supplies and then destroy them eventually . Alternatively, rebels could try to break out in the open and suffer heavy casualties .

What we have instead are uncoordinated attacks with company to battalion sized groups of SAA, NDF and Hezbollah , sometimes having too much armor and no infantry , sometimes going without armor and artillery . They mostly attack from one or two directions directly on certain objectives, underutilizing superior range , and rarely bypassing strong-points to get to the rear of rebel forces . In such scenario, rebels are able to inflict substantial casualties on SAA, sometimes they retreat but are almost never completely destroyed or cut-off from their supply bases .
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
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delft, it seems to me Mr. Lavrov would not agree with your assessment:
Russia, U.S. discuss organizing Syria political process
(later in the article I was disgusted by the expired biscuits so don't post it all, you may read it or don't at:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This looks today like a rapidly moving story, but Lavrov's comments were (sorry no link to hand but widely available on the net). "We regret that the US is not sharing rebel group information with us and helping us identify the moderator rebels, whoever and wherever they may be".

It comes across as more than a little of a dig, but should not be used to confuse the underlying process now underway.

The offer being put out by the Syrian government with Russian support, is a message to all those native Sunni rebels now in revolt, that they can have a full amnesty and participate in the political process, as long as they affirm commitment to secularity, pluralism and national unity.
This is a mechanism to separate many of the general population in occupied areas from the Jihadis and gives an opportunity to the weather cocks to swing again.
There will be no doubt, many leaders/groups that rebelled simply because they saw; given the formidable powers lined up against it, that the Assad government was lost and that it is usually unwise not to be actively associated with the winning side.
The Russian led coalition clearly now believe that many will now no longer hold their previous judgement and will again want to align with the most likely victor.

I would say that this looks like the beginning of a domino effect that could change the front lines of this war in weeks, where military action alone would take at least months if not years to achieve.
 
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