Chinese Economics Thread

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
I don't get the argument. Why is 30% of the votes equal to a veto?

They're spinning. Now they're hiding behind democratic principles of one person/one vote. Which makes people believe the World Bank, the IMF, ADB operate that way. It's just like how people believe under the British, Hong Kong had democracy that China took away. Or how people put the blame on other countries for outsourcing when that's a decision completely 100% of their own countries' corporations. People would rather believe that's the truth. That the power behind it. The alternative is an admission that they live under lies.
 

solarz

Brigadier
They're spinning. Now they're hiding behind democratic principles of one person/one vote. Which makes people believe the World Bank, the IMF, ADB operate that way. It's just like how people believe under the British, Hong Kong had democracy that China took away. Or how people put the blame on other countries for outsourcing when that's a decision completely 100% of their own countries' corporations. People would rather believe that's the truth. That the power behind it. The alternative is an admission that they live under lies.

I've just browsed a few more articles that also contain the "veto" headline. Nothing in the content of those articles actually explain how China has an "effective veto", they just say "biggest shareholder = effective veto".

No, it's not. Unless there is a rule at the AIIB that requires 71% approval for any decision, and there is nothing that says there will be, 30% is not a veto. In fact, Chinese sources indicate that AIIB structure is still under deliberation, and that the goal is to achieve unanimity.

It seems like the MSM can get away with printing blatantly false headlines, as long as it's about China.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
It basically comes down to how they don't like how China has the largest say. That's what they spin as a veto. It's no different from Parliament where even the largest bloc may not have a majority but they have to lobby others which may not include everyone to get a vote passed. India has the 2nd largest share so China can lobby them alone and no one else for a majority. They're just trying to manipulate it that everyone but China gets a veto. Like the US can control the EU just by lobbying one country to go against and it all falls apart.

I've read articles that leave out that China is coughing up most of the money. Hiding that fact makes it look like China unfairly has more power than it should under the lie that every country evenly contributes.
 
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Blackstone

Brigadier
I don't get the argument. Why is 30% of the votes equal to a veto?
Newsweek framed China's 30% as a de facto veto, simply it has the largest block of votes and it's influence extends beyond simply vote shares. My point is the public isn't well served by media organizations framing news for their own agenda, instead of reporting straight news. "Just the facts, ma'am" is uncommon in journalism.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
If the president’s own party denies him special trade promotion authority to finalize a deal with 11 Pacific Rim nations, experts warn it would leave an opening for China to exert greater influence in Asia and on the global stage.

The United States stands to lose leverage over a major trading partner if the House of Representatives on Friday derails President Barack Obama’s ability to conclude negotiations to create the
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, of which China is not part.

It’s on the outside looking in, and it is separately leading an endeavor to create an Asia-wide zone of freer trade between 16 nations. These talks, started in November 2012, would create the
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, short-handed as RCEP, a market of 3 million people.

And that’s precisely where China could exert greater influence over its neighbors in Asia should the U.S.-led negotiations falter.

“We would in a sense leave the door open for the RCEP to go ahead and write rules that would be more to their liking,” said Fred Bergsten, director emeritus of the
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, a Washington-based think tank, and a former U.S. trade official.

The parallel China-led negotiations are less ambitious and do not seek to raise worker standards or environmental protections. They involve talks between 10 countries that already make up a trading bloc known as the
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, or ASEAN, and six countries with which ASEAN has individual trade agreements: China, Australia, Japan, India, South Korea and New Zealand.

Losing the vote on trade promotion authority, thus threatening the long-running U.S.-led negotiations, would at a minimum be a public relations blow to the United States. It would weaken the credibility of the Obama administration’s pivot on Asia.

The adjustment seeks to shift the U.S. diplomatic and military attention away from Europe and the Middle East and onto Asia. Implied in this shift is a desire to contain China, or at least have some influence over its rise as a global power.

“The failure of the United States to move on this ( the Trans-Pacific Partnership) will be a huge blow to its capacity to give substance to the pivot,” said Joseph Caron, a former Canadian ambassador to China and Japan. “My own sense is it will be more a blow in that respect than the Chinese will walk in and invent multilateral rules.”

China already seeks to have its currency, the yuan, used by the International Monetary Fund as a reserve currency. And it is challenging the World Bank with its own development bank. These are examples of why the United States must preserve its status as leader of the trade talks, said Caron.

“I think the U.S. will pay a huge cost in the short, medium and possibly the long term,” he warned. “It certainly is forcing most other capitals to do some rethinking. Most capitals want the U.S. to play an active role.”

If Obama doesn’t win the trade promotion authority granted to his predecessors, it wouldn’t necessarily derail the talks. It would, however, probably lower their scope.

“The other TPP countries have already been negotiating with us for a lot of years . . . having gone this far, I’m not sure they would withdraw from the TPP,” said Bergsten.

The more likely occurrence, he said, is that participants would yank back some of what’s already on the table.

“They might withdraw some of their offers,” Bergsten said, “so the TPP could become less ambitious.”


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Player 0

Junior Member
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Embracing China's "New Normal"
Why the Economy Is Still 
on Track
By Hu Angang
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It is clear by now that China’s economy is set to slow in the years to come, although economists disagree about how much and for how long. Last year, the country’s GDP growth rate fell to 7.4 percent, the lowest in almost a quarter century, and many expect that figure to drop further in 2015. Plenty of countries struggle to grow at even this pace, but most don’t have to create hundreds of millions of jobs over the next decade, as China will. So understandably, some experts are skeptical about the country’s prospects. They argue that its production-fueled growth model is no longer tenable and warn, as the economist Paul Krugman did in 2013, that the country is “about to hit its Great Wall.” According to this view, the question is not whether the Chinese economy will crash but when.

Such thinking is misguided. China is not nearing the edge of a cliff; it is entering a new stage of development. Chinese President Xi Jinping has called this next phase of growth the “new normal,” a term that Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of the global investment firm PIMCO, famously used to describe the West’s painful economic recovery following the 2008 financial crisis. But Xi used the phrase to describe something different: a crucial rebalancing, one in which the country diversifies its economy, embraces a more sustainable level of growth, and distributes the benefits more evenly. The new normal is in its early stages now, but if Beijing manages to sustain it, China’s citizens can count on continued growth and material improvements in their quality of life. The rest of the world, meanwhile, can expect China to become further integrated into the global economy. The Chinese century is not at the beginning of the end; it is at the end of the beginning.

FOLLOWER TO LEADER

Understanding China’s new normal requires some historical context. As a latecomer to the modern economy, China has followed what one could call a “catch-up growth” model, which involves rapid economic growth following years of lagging behind. From 1870 to 1913, for example, the U.S. economy followed precisely this path, growing at an average rate of four percent. Between 1928 and 1939, Russia’s GDP grew at an average rate of 4.6 percent. And from 1950 to 1973, Japan’s economy grew at an average rate of 9.3 percent. Yet none of those countries came close to matching China’s record from 1978 to 2011: an average GDP growth rate of nearly ten percent over 33 years.

This ascent has helped China’s economy approach, and perhaps even surpass, that of the United States. In terms of purchasing power parity, a measure economists use for cross-country comparisons, China’s GDP surpassed that of the United States in 2010 or 2014, depending on whether one relies on historical statistics from the Maddison Project or data from the World Bank’s International Comparison Program. Yet if one relies on the World Bank Atlas method, China’s economy won’t likely outgrow the United States’ until 2019. And China’s GDP still trails that of the United States if calculated using current U.S. dollars. But the best method for comparing the two economies objectively is power generation, since it is physical and quantifiable. It also closely tracks modernization; without electricity, after all, or at least without a lot of it, one can’t run factories or build skyscrapers, which is exactly what China has been doing. In 1900, China generated 0.01 percent of the power the United States did. That figure rose to 1.2 percent in 1950 and 34 percent in 2000, with China surpassing the United States in 2011. In this respect, China has caught up.

Angang_EmbracingChinasNewNormal_0.jpg


China’s rise has also brought massive benefits to the country’s population, although here there is obviously much more to be done. With a population more than four times as large as that of its closest economic competitor, China won’t likely match even half the United States’ GDP per capita until around 2030. To be sure, the country has made major strides in other areas. Its average life expectancy (around 76 years) is nearing the United States’ (around 79 years). Educational levels in the two countries are comparable. And measured by the Gini coefficient, economic inequality in China may now be lower than it is in the United States. Yet since 1979, most of the windfall from China’s rise has accrued mainly to those who live in urban or coastal areas. Realizing Beijing’s ultimate development goal—“common development and common prosperity”—will require not only more sustainable growth but also more evenly distributed gains.

SLOWER BUT STEADIER

To a certain extent, China’s latest slowdown was inevitable. Three decades of breakneck growth have left China with an economy that is simply massive, making marginal increases in size all the more difficult. Even measured using current exchange rates, Chinese GDP exceeded $10 trillion in 2014, which means that growing by ten percent would amount to adding $1 trillion to the economy after one year, a sum greater than the entire GDP of Saudi Arabia, which is among the world’s largest economies. Growth on this scale was bound to become unsustainable at some point. It essentially requires an unlimited supply of energy and puts enormous stress on the environment. China already emits more carbon into the atmosphere than the United States and the EU combined, and its emissions are still increasing.

Given all this, China has little choice but to pare back. Although a seven percent growth rate is still high in comparison to most economies of the world, it will reduce China’s demand for basic inputs, whether coal or clean water, to more manageable levels. It will also allow China to finally address its contribution to global climate change, in part by making good on the U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change, a 2014 agreement that requires China to begin reducing its carbon emissions by no later than 2030. Thanks to slower growth and a host of new energy-conservation policies, China will likely reach that target well ahead of time.



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The more integrated China’s economy becomes, the more it will act as a global stabilizer, just as it did following the 2008 financial crisis. It was Beijing’s aggressive stimulus plan that arguably contributed the most to the global recovery after the crisis hit. By ensuring that China kept its growth rate at over nine percent, Beijing helped turn negative global growth positive. China will continue to serve this role moving forward, but it will also act through more formal channels, mainly international financial institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, to reform the international financial order in ways that benefit developing countries.



Angang_ChinasNewNormal_RTR3B88B.jpg

REUTERS / ED JONES / POOL
Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, December 2012.



As China increases its economic lead, it will inevitably be called on to assume greater global responsibilities. But in many ways, Beijing is already stepping up, knowing full well that the success of China’s next stage of development depends as much on the wider world as it does on China itself. China can’t thrive without a balanced, rules-based global order, and so the country will continue to advocate for the liberalization of trade, the end of protectionism everywhere, regional cooperation, and a system of global governance more representative of developing countries. The new normal, in this sense, is about building a China strong enough not only to hold its own but also to help others.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
One can't ignore China's moves to turn the yuan into a global
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, but the U.S. appears to be doing just that.

A team of experts from the International Monetary Fund
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this week to help determine whether the yuan, also known as the renminbi, should be designated an official reserve currency.

"On Monday and Tuesday, the IMF team was scheduled to hold technical discussions in Shanghai with officials at the Chinese central bank and China Foreign Exchange Trading System, which oversees currency trading in China," The Wall Street Journalreported.

China still has work to do to achieve this goal, but it is on the way to and is making promises about the changes that are coming in order to qualify for reserve currency status. A final decision is expected to be made by the end of the year.

There are still reforms to be completed, but Eswar Prasad has written in the
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that the Chinese are exerting the necessary leverage to get reluctant officials on board.

Prasad also argues that "the renminbi's rise could be a constructive force for change in China and the international monetary system." Such a move, Prasad contends, will further open up markets and make exchange more flexible and responsive.

But where is the U.S. in all this? Falling behind, it seems.
First, it missed the boat on the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The U.S.
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in AIIB while allies such as France, Germany, Italy and the U.K. jumped on board.

Second, unless he can right the ship, President Obama likely will miss out on the
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, which would stifle his moves to shift the U.S.'s focus to Asia.

The U.S. seems to be moving backward relative to the rest of the world, and The New York Times'
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on this trend.


Chinese leaders are pushing for their nation to become more capitalistic without disrupting their society or undermining their control over politics.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and some other European leaders understand this, and that is why they are attempting to create a eurozone that is unified and competitive in global markets.

The U.S. has not had such challenges to its world leadership position in more than 60 years.

The concern is not that the U.S. has lost its world leadership position or will lose it in the near future. The concern is that the U.S. seems to be ignoring the reality that is right under its nose and, as a consequence, will suffer in the future.

China's expansion in the world is real. This expansion must be accepted and responded to.
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Blackstone

Brigadier
Hollywood does very well in China, and recent releases have made truckloads of money. A story on China's foreign film blackouts say only Chinese movies are shown from mid-June to end of July, in order to promote domestic films. Are CCP officials making a mistake? It seems to me the best way to innovate and improve your own products is to compete in the marketplace, with your customers as final arbiters. If they prefer your competitors' products, then you need to improve your goods and build a better mouse trap. Artificial barriers isn't the way to go, with the exception of protecting infant industries and giving them time to become competitive.

China Box Office: 'Jurassic World' Grabs $100M As Blackout Looms
Jurassic World took in $100.1 million in its first five days in the world's second-biggest film market, according to data from Universal.

Hollywood is having a powerful run in China this year, with Furious 7, Avengers: Age of Ultron and now Jurassic World earning enormous sums in their opening weeks.

However, the annual "blackout" period is due to begin June 19, when Hollywood movies have to give way to Chinese films, and that usually runs until the end of July.

Ahead of the blackout comes The Divergent Series: Insurgent, then the focus is on domestic fare until later in July when Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, Minions and Inside Out are expected, and Fantastic Four in August.

Among the big Chinese movies due to open in coming weeks are Hollywood Adventures and the latest installment in the Tiny Times franchise.

The Jurassic Park story seems to
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in China, especially in formats like Imax. The 3D rerelease of Jurassic Park in 2013 took $57 million, which was more than in North America. Figures from industry data group Entgroup revealed that Jurassic World had 344,103 showings and 15.73 million admissions.

The
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knocked Warner Bros.' and New Line's San Andreas into second place in the week to June 14, although it had a creditable week, taking $29.56 million. San Andreas had 229,121 screenings and 4.89 million admissions, according to Entgroup.

One of the things driving the popularity of the movie in China is the popularity of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, who came to Beijing to promote San Andreas and is loved for his role in Furious 7.

Also holding its own last week was Stand By Me Doraemon in third place, the first Japanese movie to show in China in nearly three years as tensions between the two Asian giants start to ease.

The chubby cat robot with a magical pocket added $8.31 million for a gross of $83.05 million after 18 days, Entgroup figures show.

Bollywood tentpole PK took another $2 million to bring its China cume to $18.77 million after 24 days, making it the most successful Indian film in China.

The success of Doraemon and PK shows growing sophistication in the Chinese market and offers hope to non-Hollywood movies that they also can make money in China.

In fifth place, Disney's superhero blockbuster Avengers: Age of Ultron added $1.53 million to its tally for a cume of $240.11 million.

Behind that came Disney's Tomorrowland, which took another $900,000 for a cume of $19.24 million after 20 days.

That was followed by Who Am I 2015, directed by Song Yinxi, which took $550,000 in its opening weekend, and Sun Hao's romantic comedy Zai Jian Wo Men De Shi Nian, with $480,000 in its opening weekend.

In ninth place was Monsters, which took another $290,000 for a gross of $740,000, and rounding out the top 10 in China was Happy Little Submarine Magic Box of Time, which took another $270,000 for a gross of $5.38 milllion.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Hollywood does very well in China, and recent releases have made truckloads of money. A story on China's foreign film blackouts say only Chinese movies are shown from mid-June to end of July, in order to promote domestic films. Are CCP officials making a mistake? It seems to me the best way to innovate and improve your own products is to compete in the marketplace, with your customers as final arbiters. If they prefer your competitors' products, then you need to improve your goods and build a better mouse trap. Artificial barriers isn't the way to go, with the exception of protecting infant industries and giving them time to become competitive.

China Box Office: 'Jurassic World' Grabs $100M As Blackout Looms
Does Hollywood corporation "artificial barriers" show Chinese made films?
 
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