China's SCS Strategy Thread

joshuatree

Captain
Recent progress in Johnson south reef.

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From what I could find, that pic should be of current progress on Hughes Reef / Dongmen Jiao? The existing structure looks like Johnson South Reef but the shape of the new island does not compared to previous pics.


Johnson South Reef / Chigua Jiao
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Cuarteron Reef / Huayang Jiao
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Gaven Reef / Nanxun Jiao
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Eldad Reef / Anda Jiao
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no_name

Colonel
You are right. I got the pic from a news source. It looks like they are stepping up work on multiple islands at once.
 

joshuatree

Captain
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China continues to expand Woody Island, the largest of the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.

Satellite imagery shows that since October 2013 China has undertaken substantial land reclamation, harbour redevelopment and other infrastructure construction on the island, which is known as Yongxing Dao by China and Phu Lam Island by Vietnam.

China has occupied Woody Island since capturing it from South Vietnam in the January 1974 Battle of the Paracel Islands. Since then, it has established a military garrison, coastal defensive positions, the runway, four large aircraft hangars, communications facilities, and a municipal headquarters. Vietnam claims the Paracels, as does Taiwan.

Previous satellite imagery analysis by IHS Jane's shows that between 2005 and 2011 authorities constructed a new harbour on the west side of the island; since October 2013 a breakwater immediately south of that harbour has been removed and more dredging work has been carried out.

The land reclamation is occurring at two areas in particular: at either end of the island's 2,400 m-long runway, and to fill in the gap between Woody Island and the causeway to Shi Dao (Rocky Island): a small outcrop that is believed to house a secure communications facility.

The dredgers are depositing sand onto an area on the southwest end of the runway; spoil is also being deposited on the runway's northeast end. If all of this new land is used for the runway, then the strip will increase from 2,400 m to 2,700-2,800 m. This increases the safety envelope for PLA Air Force bombers like the H-6 and strategic transport aircraft such as the Ilyushin Il-76.

IHS Maritime has used AISLive data to identify one of the dredgers being used as Xin Hai Tun , a cutter suction dredger built by Guangzhou Wenchong Shipyard and operated by SDC Orient Dredging and Engineering. Other dredgers operating in the area appear to be barges fitted with clamshell dredgers. Alongside are a number of container ships, including one called Xing He Yuan 1 , which is owned by Taizhou Xinghe Shipping Co Ltd. The company's website highlights its expertise in dyke and pier construction.

ANALYSIS
Along with the Spratly Islands, the Paracels are at the heart of the continuing South China Sea (SCS) dispute. Whereas the Spratlys' location in the southern part of the SCS has previously limited Chinese activities there, the Paracels' proximity to Hainan island has meant Beijing has been able to expand its jurisdiction and administration of them. Woody Island has been a particular focus and, in July 2012, was designated the capital of Sansha Prefecture, which is part of Hainan province.

The moves to extend the runway and rebuild the harbour on the west side of the island will enhance Woody Island's utility as a military base from which to project power in the SCS. The Paracels' strategic location close to the centre of the SCS also means China can use them as a base for constabulary operations, whether that is enforcing fishing regulations unilaterally imposed by Beijing or to potentially interdict shipping traversing the region, where Beijing move to do this as part of a wider sea control strategy.

In the short to medium term, it is unlikely that China would move to do so, as the sea lanes in this part of the SCS serve its ports - such as Hong Kong and Shanghai - and as such freedom of passage is in China's interest.
 

mr.bean

Junior Member
Another step in one of China's strategic plans to dominate the South China Sea and link the Western Pacific with the Indian Ocean.

this is china's response to john Kerry about freezing construction in the SCS In the ASEAN meeting in Myanmar. china needs 'more action less talk' and carry on its game plan.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
this is china's response to john Kerry about freezing construction in the SCS In the ASEAN meeting in Myanmar. china needs 'more action less talk' and carry on its game plan.

It probably has little to do with Kerry's call for freezing construction, but timing is interesting. China always had plans to expand her holdings in the entire SCS area as one of many parts of Sino grand strategy. Step by step, China rolls on like an incoming tide, and it doesn't look like there's anything anyone could do about it.
 

joshuatree

Captain
It probably has little to do with Kerry's call for freezing construction, but timing is interesting. China always had plans to expand her holdings in the entire SCS area as one of many parts of Sino grand strategy. Step by step, China rolls on like an incoming tide, and it doesn't look like there's anything anyone could do about it.

Multiple factors come into play. I would say US criticism and increasingly non-neutral statements are part of it. The other factors would be other state players trying to bring about their own actions such as lawsuits, attempts to ratchet up alliances, expansion of their own bases in the SCS, and hardware donations. Add to that, China currently has a president who's not afraid to take a confrontational approach when decided upon.

So far, none of the land reclamation in the Spratlys look as if they will get a runway. Probably will see larger military garrisons, maybe rapid reaction force? Definitely better harbor facilities for forward deployed naval ships. Maybe more sophisticated intel facilities? Would they start deploying SAMs for more protection? Or too threatening? Keep in mind, there are hawks from other nations calling for the destruction of these new facilities.

The proposed TA-600 could be used in these locations, whether to resupply quickly, transport troops, SAR, maritime patrol, ASW patrols?

On the civilian side, they will probably be used more as bases and safe harbors for CG to be forward based to enable quicker reaction times since Chinese fishermen are now being equipped with Beidou systems to call for help. If the CG adopts a more soft power approach, such as also conducting SAR for all fishermen in the area, it would dampen the charges that these new bases are nothing but a threat to others.
 

port_08

Junior Member
During Imperial Dynasty, the water around the area was control by China before colonization and foreign powers. I think this is reverting back to status quo?
 

Brumby

Major
During Imperial Dynasty,

If I understand the current political structure in China, there is no such thing as Imperial Dynasty. It is not a cut and paste reasoning to suit a chosen narrative. Ultimately, you can't fit a square in to a round hole.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
this is china's response to john Kerry about freezing construction in the SCS In the ASEAN meeting in Myanmar. china needs 'more action less talk' and carry on its game plan.

Exactly, and its an opportunity to say "kiss off" to the whole BHO team, and more particularly the "Pacific Pivot". China and Russia are finding it an opportune time to "double team" the US, and they know that we've never been "principally weaker" than the current leadership vacuum, as BHO is paralyzed by his own ineptitude, and lack of understanding of the larger game that is going on around him...... He knows he's been had???? he knows he's being "played for a fool", but instead of asking for help from the older, wiser heads, he's acting out of his own anger,,,,,, and all he knows how to do is to play "word games", and scarier yet----"drone attack", well or just keep droning on and on! but China is "making hay, while the sun shines"???????? whats a fellow to do????????
 
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