PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

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Blitzo

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Partially carrier related...
Most notable is that the grandfather who made the model carrier got an interview with the BBC (video in link)
And for the BBC, the news article is refreshingly even handed given the topic in question

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22 April 2014 Last updated at 21:21

Obama Asia tour: China 'the elephant in the room'

"No one need fear us because China is a giant herbivore."

So said retired General Xu Guangyu in answer to a question about China's growing military might.

General Xu is 80 and has been with the People's Liberation Army since the age of 16.

Foreign journalists are not allowed into military compounds so we met in a Beijing coffee shop to discuss President Obama's visit to Asia.

Alarming standoff
"Of course an elephant can't turn itself into a rabbit any more than a rabbit can turn itself into an elephant. But the elephant does not eat rabbits. The only danger is that it treads on them."

That is a message for the Philippines with reference to their dispute over a scattering of islands in the South China Sea.

But more alarming is the standoff with Japan over islands in the East China Sea.

In Gen Xu's view, Japan should consider hard demographic realities.

"The Chinese population is 10 times that of Japan, so the Japanese should expect China to be 10 times stronger."

Beijing is not on President Obama's itinerary this week.

But as he discusses economics and security with allies in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, China will be very much the elephant in the room and China itself will be watching closely.

The Obama administration has promised what it calls a "pivot to Asia", which in security terms means changing the balance of its forces.

Instead of spreading them 50:50 between the Pacific and the Atlantic, the objective is 60:40 in favour of Asia.

"How would they like it if we took 60% of our forces and sailed up and down in front of their doorstep?" asked Gen Xu.

"We want to achieve parity because we don't want to be bullied. It will take us another 30 years."

The irony in all of this is that since Chairman Mao met President Nixon in 1972, US military dominance in Asia has set the stage for China's rise, providing the security for China to grow rich and strong.

That was then and this is now. With double digit defence spending and a newly assertive tone from President Xi down, China is signalling that it wants a change of the rules and a different map.

In Gen Xu's words: "It's just as Napoleon said. When China wakes it will shake the world. And the Americans can't bear it. We've woken up and we're recovering our might."

Disappointment shared
Another octogenarian meanwhile is in waders and baseball cap, up to his waist in sea water and pushing a 12m (39ft) scale model of an aircraft carrier into the East China Sea.

"I built it for my grandson," retiree Wen Yuzhun explains as he hauls a matching model fighter plane onto the deck.

"Qingdao is the home of China's aircraft carrier but we can't get close enough to see it."

I share his disappointment. The People's Liberation Army does not yet do naval facility trips for foreign journalists. The closest I can get to the pride of the Chinese fleet is a chug around the bay on Mr Wen's model.

At 80, he says he won't live long enough to see China become a great sea power, but he hopes his grandson will.

"One aircraft carrier is not enough. Ten aircraft carriers are not enough. Look what's happening now. Japan is bullying China. It sees China as not strong enough and there's nothing we can do about it."

Wen Yuzhun, like Gen Xu, will be listening closely to what President Obama has to say on his Asian tour, alert for warning signs that the US might encourage the territorial claims of China's neighbours.

Along with their government and many of their compatriots, these octogenarians dream of a day when China might be strong enough to enforce its own claims in these seas.
 

SampanViking

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They don't have the planes. We know that at the end of last year they at least had 3 production J-15's. If they can deliver 2 a month that would mean they now have about 11 to 12 production planes. If the rate is slower than 2 a month then they wouldn't even have 11 planes. And they need a period of extensive testing before they can put those planes on the deck of the carrier. They need at least 12 planes to form a squadron. I would expect the first squadron of J-15's on the Liaoning about the end of this year or perhabs the beginning of next year.

But they don't go out to sea enough to train so things in the carrier program are moving in the slow lane. But the ship is in Dalian now doing either repair or refitting work. So it means that they found issue's with the ship.

If I were to hazard a guess re shortage of expected number of J15's, I would put this down to production capacity limitations. China is literally pumping out a massive range and numbers of platforms for all the major military services. Even China however must have limitations and need to prioritise.

If the powers that be, have deemed that the security/defence environment is deteriorating, then it would be no surprise that production is switched to prioritise platforms for mature roles and functions; platforms that will have a ready need and use and which can be used to dominant effect immediately.

Best will in the world, but a Carrier Bourne, Chinese Navy Airwing is not yet any of these things and will not be for quite some time. It will not make any significant difference if this remains the case for a few months or even years longer than original expectation.
 

Air Force Brat

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Marineforum.info reports, that Liaoning is going to be drydocked for its first major maintenance period.

Gazing into the BD Popeye crystal ball oh dark lord, what duz this meaneth, pray-telleth?????

Dry Dock????? hummm?????? something below the waterline, rudder, screws, shaft seals?????? any thought and or pontifications.....
 

Jeff Head

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The best training takes place at sea. Away from the cares of daily life. No family. friends no distractions. No where to go but to work and learn your job.

Sailors belong on ships..and ships belong at sea.
Amen to this.

And it is spoken by one who has many, many years of experience doing this very thing.

Same with Kwaig...a man who knows exactly what carrier deck handling and air boss operations are all about...because he has been there doing it!

I will take this advise and this experience over all of the book learning and all of the opinions of those who have never been to sea and operated in these environs every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Here in the US, I wish we had pols and land-lubber appointees who had the sense to do the same.
 

delft

Brigadier
If I were to hazard a guess re shortage of expected number of J15's, I would put this down to production capacity limitations. China is literally pumping out a massive range and numbers of platforms for all the major military services. Even China however must have limitations and need to prioritise.

If the powers that be, have deemed that the security/defence environment is deteriorating, then it would be no surprise that production is switched to prioritise platforms for mature roles and functions; platforms that will have a ready need and use and which can be used to dominant effect immediately.

Best will in the world, but a Carrier Bourne, Chinese Navy Airwing is not yet any of these things and will not be for quite some time. It will not make any significant difference if this remains the case for a few months or even years longer than original expectation.
That would mean that a J-15 batch was delayed to produce a J-16 batch earlier?
 

SampanViking

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That would mean that a J-15 batch was delayed to produce a J-16 batch earlier?

It is a s good an answer as any, but I would not even start to pretend that I know the correct answer.

It may be a shortage of production lines per-se or a shortage of certain critical components. It could be a major problem with the plane itself, but that seems the least likely reason.

If it is a shortage of production lines, you could argue that all they need to do is build some more. Well easier said than done, as you need rather more than old George the Steam Enthusiast and his old Caxton Lathe in his shed to build these babies. Building production lines and recruiting suitable personnel all take time as well.

Then of course, it could be budgetary constraints rather than physical.
 

delft

Brigadier
My question is: Is there one Flanker batch production with a capacity of one batch per 10? 12? months or are there two of them?
J-11B was built in batches of, IIRC, 24. From the production per year follows the production time of one batch and whether there were one or two production facilities. These facilitie(s) are now converted to produce the next generation of Flankers, J-15 and J-16. The batch production time is likely to be about the same. Does anyone know at least some of these details?
 
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