East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

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Blackstone

Brigadier
Why Japan only dare to say anything rather "provocative" after get a "nod" from the US, especially dealing with China ?

I thought JMSDF is strong enough, even dealing with China ? ... Is there any "law" to prohibit them to do so ?

Former Singaporean PM Lee Kuan Yew once opined why Taiwan is 'lost,' by postulating that even if the nuclear option is taken off the table, and superior US/Allied forces defeated China, it wouldn't be the end of it, because China will come back for a second, third, and fourth round. Eventually, China will win by attrition. The same could be said for Diaoyu islands, and that's why the US doesn't want Japan to drag her into a fight with China.
 

joshuatree

Captain
I have to correct you on two points one even if they were armed its not something the Chinese would have been able to tell without having a aircraft to confirm it, two if they had been armed its not like it would of meant much. B52s defenses are not going to do much against a armed fighter despite what the Dale Brown novels say. So there would have been little point unless the mission was to flatten the Senkaku back into the pacific. In which case it would have done the world a favor.

Well I didn't say the Chinese knew off the bat that the B-52s were unarmed. But the US opting for no weapons loaded and announcing it is a gesture in itself and that's what I was trying to get at.

Looks like Japan turned to the UN for support on China's ADIZ. It's probably a good gambit to internationalize the issue as much as possible. On the other hand, it's hard for Japan to maintain its "no dispute" fantasy when all they do is dispute.

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I wonder what type of action they seek? If they're asking the ICAO to somehow nullify China's ADIZ, it would be hypocritical for the ICAO to not nullify all ADIZs out there in the name of security for air travel.
 
It exists for its intended, primary purpose. To protect the Chinese mainland. It was never established (IMHO) to intercept every aircraft flying through it...particularly not military aircraft as that area is a place for exercises and normal military activities by several nations.

so the Chinese have now shown that they monitor the airspace to those ends.

Agreed. Originally when I heard of this, I have no idea of what's going on because I never heard of the ADIZ before, so I did a quick read on Wiki. It says ADIZ only applies to civil aircraft and mentioned nothing quite about military. B-52 entries into the ADIZ is much of a protest move, but from Washington's opinion, it was required. That said, it's not really a surprising thing. However, the move seemed to upset S.Korea, and that's unfortunate. It does make me how Beijing considers this issue as well. Furthermore, with the US instructing all flights to abide by Chinese ADIZ today, this also legitimized the Chinese move officially. Seemed like another scenario right off the book.
 
Not even close. Japan never intercepted any PLA or Chinese government air crafts over Diaoyu area. Both sides will probably scramble fighters that just happen to arrive on scene a few minutes too late to intercept. That's been the dance so far, and they'll likely stick to it.


Probably correct. Close enough for government work, anyway.


Bad PR? So what? America wants to be liked in the world, but China doesn't really care if other nations like her or not, as long as they do what she wants. China now has a new status quo in place, and will strengthen it over time. United States's de facto acceptance of the new ADIZ takes the wind out of Japan's protests. In addition, the 'kill a chicken to scare the monkeys' affect might cause some of the smaller claimants to think twice before taking actions in the future.

On balance, China probably won more than she lost. Time will tell.

I don't think that Beijing should ignore what the rest of the world thinks because we share the globe, and it means a lot. However, I think there should be a balance of dancing with diplomacy versus doing what you needed to do when required. Rounding up HIV patients within China and killing them all will solve China's HIV problems theoretically, but that will destroy China's image as genocidal, and that's why we can't say China can ignore the rest of the world. Same thing goes for here. The Chinese civilization is a culture of progress and achievement, not fear. If China wants to be included into the international community as a respected player, throwing hard power is not the point. We share this world and the purpose is to live peacefully together. There's no dialogue if everyone perceives you as draconian identity and you attempt to reinforce that.
 
At this stage I'd still like to wait if China will present and pictures or videos of any "interceptions" of US or Japanese aircraft, but even if they don't, that doesn't preclude a "non intercept" because like I said, is there a big difference between an intercept between aircraft at 100m away to 10km away?





I think this is the crux of it.

You are arguing that China's original ADIZ statement was insinuating that the PLAAF would enact military defensive measures against all military aircraft or even most military aircraft which do not comply with the zone.
Indeed, that particular part is all that the media have been focusing on.

That has led to the assumption that China must react very vigorously to make itself seem credible and keep face.

However that is the western media's interpretation of China's ADIZ rules.

My interpretation, and I believe the Chinese government's interpretation of its new ADIZ, is that it A: gives China the pretext to challenge Japanese sovereignty over the disputed islands. B: gives China the pretext to do more longer range flights and "interceptions" as they might be.


Furthermore, I believe the wording of the original statement does lend credence to the idea that they did intercept the US and Japanese aircraft. China is very wordy. They call the liaoning a "scientific and training vessel". Is it much of a leap of faith to believe they'd call interceptions "identifications"?






Actually it's just business and logical sense because the US knows complying with the ADIZ is easiest for their airliners.

Exactly. What's the point of challenging this? Urging civil flights to challenge this is equivalent of trying to stir up a major international conflict. I'm glad Washington acted responsibly to this matter.
 
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kwaigonegin

Colonel
Exactly. What's the point of challenging this? Urging civil flights to challenge this is equivalent of trying to stir up a major international conflict. I'm glad Washington acted responsibly to this matter.

The United States is the peacemaker in this case. They are trying their darnest and pulling every trick out of the book to pacify China while still showing unflinching support for a close ally. Generally this is counterproductive if not quite impossible which is why this situation requires top notch political maneuvering.

Sending in the slow lumbering unarmed B-52s with about as big an RCS is a very good move. To the layman (Japanese and some Americans) this may seem like a 'big screw' you to China however most do not realized that this move was actually like an out for Japan. US HAD to act first because JMSDF didn't know what to do and very likely have done something to really provoke China and open a can of worms that CAN'T be easily closed afterward.

If the US really wanted to do that they would not have send unarmed B-52s on 'regular flight path' from Guam and skirted the ADIZ. They would've send fully armed B-2s from my home state with Raptor escorts and loiter in the ADIZ before buggin out if or when spotted. That would obviously be a very provocative and assinine move and would achieve nothing positive at all.

Now the US is advising civilian airlines from the US to adhere to the ADIZ rules of notification to further calm things down in the hopes that Japan will follow suit since JAL etc has been advised NOT to do so a few days ago.

The Obama admin has a LOT of things going on right now and they LAST thing he and his admin wants is to have to deal with a curveball like this that can potentially escalate into something very very major and significant if not properly handled. He has way too much going on in the domestic front and neither he nor anyone else for that matter wants to be the POTUS either directly or indirectly responsible for Japan and China going to war by making a mistake or poorly calculated political move.
 

port_08

Junior Member
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...
"The biggest concern is the overlapping of Chinese and Japanese air zones, including the airspace above the disputed Diaoyu Islands … that implies the risk of a clash between both sides' fighter jets increasing," said Professor Liu Jiangyong , an expert on Sino-Japanese relations at Tsinghua University.

"To reduce such risk, it has became more pressing for both sides to sit down and negotiate the dispute over the Diaoyus," Liu said. "That has been all along what China asked for: Japan has to acknowledge there is a sovereignty dispute."

Xu Guangyu , a retired People's Liberation Army general, agreed.

"The eventual purpose is to force Japan to sit down with China, to avoid miscalculation and escalation," Xu said.

Japanese news agency Kyodo has reported that Tang Jiaxuan , a former state councillor overseeing foreign policy, put forward the proposal during a meeting with Japanese politicians in Beijing on Wednesday.

"Similar to the established bilateral crisis-management mechanism by Chinese and Japanese defence departments at sea, management for aviation activities is necessary, and this issue should be discussed," Tang reportedly told his guests.

But the proposal apparently was not well received in Tokyo.
..
 
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Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Port_08, only mods are allowed to use red font.


--

Anyway, I hate to brag -- but I called it. The entire point of this ADIZ covering the islands was to bring Japan to the negotiating table.
 

i.e.

Senior Member
The United States is the peacemaker in this case. They are trying their darnest and pulling every trick out of the book to pacify China while still showing unflinching support for a close ally. Generally this is counterproductive if not quite impossible which is why this situation requires top notch political maneuvering.

Sending in the slow lumbering unarmed B-52s with about as big an RCS is a very good move. To the layman (Japanese and some Americans) this may seem like a 'big screw' you to China however most do not realized that this move was actually like an out for Japan. US HAD to act first because JMSDF didn't know what to do and very likely have done something to really provoke China and open a can of worms that CAN'T be easily closed afterward.

If the US really wanted to do that they would not have send unarmed B-52s on 'regular flight path' from Guam and skirted the ADIZ. They would've send fully armed B-2s from my home state with Raptor escorts and loiter in the ADIZ before buggin out if or when spotted. That would obviously be a very provocative and assinine move and would achieve nothing positive at all.

Now the US is advising civilian airlines from the US to adhere to the ADIZ rules of notification to further calm things down in the hopes that Japan will follow suit since JAL etc has been advised NOT to do so a few days ago.

The Obama admin has a LOT of things going on right now and they LAST thing he and his admin wants is to have to deal with a curveball like this that can potentially escalate into something very very major and significant if not properly handled. He has way too much going on in the domestic front and neither he nor anyone else for that matter wants to be the POTUS either directly or indirectly responsible for Japan and China going to war by making a mistake or poorly calculated political move.

US is not the peace maker in this case.

if it were really a peacemaker, first it would gone back and public and say that it made a mistake in transferring the administration of rocks back to Japan. Second. would not encourage japan by saying US-Japan Alliance covers a territory Japan has clearly has a dispute on, while at same time saying that it is neutral in this dispute. If you lend your buddy the a gun and promise to come to his aid if he is in trouble, while same time saying you are not in his argument with his neighbor, is, by all stretch of common sense, a bald face lie. And it should called so, and subsequently lose all of its moral high ground in this case.

A peace maker does not intimidate one side while give the other side a blank check grantee. a good peacemaker would absolve itself of all interest in the dispute (in which clearly US in this case is not the case because preserving a strong japan vs a weak china is clearly in US short term interest, hence all the bullshchit about Preserving the Status Quo, which a code word for the current absolute and supreme dominance of Western Pacfic air and sea space by the US-Japan Military Alliance ), a TRUE peace maker would go back to the merit of the issue, and judge and act base on the merit and merit alone not politics. Clearly US is not in the condition to do so. Simply the echos of NSC-68 and Dean G. Acheson's famous speech at the National Press Club on 12 January 1950, which was seen as putting Taiwan and South Korea outside of US defensive parameter, would prohibited US from even a slightest waiver in its position less it is seen as analogous to the historic "Appeasement"... So sadly, Chinese aspirations would suffer instead, and merely a delaying of inevitable would ensure. simply put it, US-Japan is writing checks its grandkids would not be able to cash...

The Core of the problem is that, it is trying to preserve its own disproportionate interest vis-a-via a power in Asia by preserving its alliance with a country governed by the most notorious nationalistic government since 1945. by doing so I found it very hard to convince history that It is doing the right thing. It has let go of all but thinnest veils of universal values covering a grotesque body of naked national interest and may be even racial hatred.

P.S.
I would find it surprising that all the media lynching of china on this issue lately is not with out an active spin by the US government or interest groups in and around it.
 
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