East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

[Blitzo]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

If that's the case China should have not issued this statement until they were 100% ready to defend their ADIZ;

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... And what makes you think they're not. Do we know how far the B-52s flew in? If they lingered only in the outer edge of the ADIZ over the disputed islands for a moment would Chinese fighters even bother to respond, and if they responded would the US bomber even still be there?

Fortunately for China, the wording of their public ADIZ statement means they can selectively deal with incidents with varying degrees of force. Interception, warning, forced landing, or simply nothing apart from radar contact.

 

[latenlazy]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

I don't see it as a brinkmanship on the part of China. Personally I think it is a smart calculated political move. The establishment of the ADIZ by China enables it to neutralize Japan's sole control of the airspace over the disputed islands. It may result in both countries challenging each other over the same airspace but if there is no further escalation it is merely a Mexican standoff but by default Japan will have lost sole control of that airspace.

Neither of you are wrong here. It's both brinksmanship and a smart calculated move. China needs to test how serious Japan is, just like Japan will need to test how serious China is (if Abe's intention is to increase Japan's security presence), but these tests have an intrinsic escalation effect with the risks that come with that. Both countries recognize that the other will need to get used to the other's posture, hence them trading military responses, and both countries recognize there is a greater risk for incidents. However, that's what countries do. They make calculated risks.

That's also what makes this B-52 incident interesting. By reinserting itself into this conflict the US is essentially restoring the old status quo. No one seriously thinks the B-52 flyby indicates that the US would go to war with China for these islands on Japan's behalf, but a reminder of US power does as much to pull back Japan as it does to caution China. It neutralizes the immediate need for either side to posture, which can encourage both sides to postpone this escalated testing of each other's military responses. If there's one thing China has historically appreciated US power for, it's been it's dampening effect on Japanese military strength, and how the US can sometimes serves as a more effective avenue to get what it wants from Japan than the direct relationship. I'm of the notion that China's non-response to the US was precisely out of an appreciation for this specific role. There's a scenario China recognizes where it can live with the US in East Asia if the US doesn't get tangled up in the South China Sea or Taiwan.

I absolutely must caveat that I could be entirely wrong about this conjecture, but one test to see if I'm right is if Japan and China both cool down a bit after this incident (but especially Japan). Even a nominal lax of tensions and return to normalcy over the dispute would do much to give either side headroom to open a channel of dialogue again, and I think for China a short term "loss of face" is well worth this possibility.

 

[kroko]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

If that's the case China should have not issued this statement until they were 100% ready to defend their ADIZ;

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I think that its becoming clear that they should had studied very well the creation of their first ADIZ. Clearly they blundered. Requiring something from foreign military planes flying in international waters is not realistic. if they dont do what you want, then what? shoot them? It really reflects their inexperience in dealing with these issues.

Certainly their next ADIZ will be set up better.

As for the question of chinese warplanes flying over the "islands", they had a full year to do that. They never did. Why would it happen today? PLA no longer have the political power in china they had in the 90´s, IMO. The Taiwan missile crisis was a long time ago. Besides, the reality is that it is just a bunch of rocks.

This is essencialy a political dispute, spilling over into the economic realm. But not really a military one.

 

[Blitzo]

Re: First US incursion in new chinese ADIZ: no reaction from china

No. Not all of American ADIZ is American territorial airspace. But the requirement to file flight plans and maintain two way air traffic communication is enforced only over the part of ADIZ that actually is part of American territorial airspace. America does not require foreign air flights in American AZID but outside US territorial airspace to do anything unless it Enters or intends to enter American territorial airspace.

I am a pilot, I know.

America does of course harass Russian bombers that enter us ADIZ. There are bilateral "runs of the road" agreements between the US and USSR on how Russian bombers ought to behave in US AZID, but outside US territorial airspace, to avoid unintended incidents. But that is not a generalized American requirement on any foreign flight in American ADIZ outside American territorial air space. Since America requires nothing, it stands to lose nothing if the foreign aircraft doesn't do anything. AFAIK, no Russian bomber ever actually entered American territorial airspace without following generalized American ADIZ rules.

Okay, you're a pilot, so can you elaborate on which US ADIZ rules apply to military aircraft and where?

Because your statement is counter to what I've read, that is to say, the US does demand flight plan, two way radio contact, active transponder, position reporting etc, of all aircraft within contiguous ADIZ areas which also protrude out of US territorial airspace.

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I expect the Russians don't provide all the above to the US when it enters alaskan ADIZ, and Chinese aircraft definitely don't when they enter Japanese ADIZ (which probably has similar rules), so therefore it will follow that this isn't a loss of face.

So I suppose the question is whether US (and other nation's) ADIZ demands within its ADIZ are similar to China's.

We can break it down into two sub sections:
How large/where is the US ADIZ? (I'm basing this off the maps I've posted)

And,

In what parts of the ADIZ does the US impose various ADIZ demands?

China imposes an requirement on any foreign aircraft in its self declared ADIZ outside its territorial airspace. Since china explicitly requires something, china stands to lose face at least if foreign aircraft does nothing and china can't do anything about it.

Practically it means only military aircraft, not civil (as China has made it relatively clear on), but let's continue.

There is actually nothing unreasonable per se in china's demand that foreign aircraft obey its rules in Chinese declare ADIZ outside Chinese territorial airspace. Other countries (but not the US) also does it. But being reasonable and being smart are two different things.

It is not smart to declare an intention to enforce an ADIZ outside your territorial airspace, then fail to do so when foreign aircraft flaunt your rules and you can't do anything about it.

Again, this depends on the answer to my query above.

 

[Brumby]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

If that's the case China should have not issued this statement until they were 100% ready to defend their ADIZ;

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Your assumption is premise upon the notion of a broad enforcement of the ADIZ as practiced by the US. However I believe China's main objective of the ADIZ is more targeted and primarily towards the airspace over the disputed islands. The ADIZ gives China coverage to incur into airspace currently claimed by Japan and thus effectively contesting Japan's sole authority over it.

Maybe the US suspected a similar motive and tested the ADIZ and China's lack of response basically supports this theory. I don't think it is case of China's inability to enforce it but rather that it was not the objective of the establishment in the first place. We are just seeing ADIZ from the lens of the way the US might enforce it.

What would be interesting to observe is the airspace over the disputed islands in the days and weeks ahead.

 

[Schumacher]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

If that's the case China should have not issued this statement until they were 100% ready to defend their ADIZ;

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I sure hope China won't waste precious jet fuel just to show they can intercept all flights into ADIZ even none threatening ones just for propaganda. These can be handled thru other channels & fuel saved for real stuffs.
All we have now is an official's words.
US could have notified China thru other non ADIZ channels, something like 'you had your fun, now let me have mine so I won't lose face. Biden will be there soon, he'll make it up to you in other ways.'

 

[Blitzo]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

I think that its becoming clear that they should had studied very well the creation of their first ADIZ. Clearly they blundered. Requiring something from foreign military planes flying in international waters is not realistic. if they dont do what you want, then what? shoot them? It really reflects their inexperience in dealing with these issues.

Oh. My. God.


Is everyone simply ignoring the fact that the US has similar rules for its own ADIZ? I've literally posted the FAA guidelines

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The Russians don't abide by those US ADIZ rules, which include transponders, two way radio, flight plan filing, so why should China expect the US to abide by theirs?



A better question is -- who here seriously believes the Chinese government expected the USAF, USN and JASDF to give them their flight plans and activate transponders and respond to Chinese radio calls?
Of course nobody. That's unrealistic. The Chinese government didn't expect it, but somehow people believe they did.

So the next logical question, is what did China expect to do about aircraft that do not comply?

Well naturally that would differ on the situation, wouldn't it? If those aircraft are deep in the ADIZ they'll be intercepted. If they're barely skimming the edge, fighters might be deployed, but if they're already on a vector out they'll leave them there. No air patrol has a 24/7 presence, and it's impossible to intercept another aircraft in your ADIZ if they poke in for a few minutes and then fly out, because by then your aircraft will only be up in the air.

 

[latenlazy]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

Oh. My. God.


Is everyone simply ignoring the fact that the US has similar rules for its own ADIZ? I've literally posted the FAA guidelines

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The Russians don't abide by those US ADIZ rules, which include transponders, two way radio, flight plan filing, so why should China expect the US to abide by theirs?



A better question is -- who here seriously believes the Chinese government expected the USAF, USN and JASDF to give them their flight plans and activate transponders and respond to Chinese radio calls?
Of course nobody. That's unrealistic. The Chinese government didn't expect it, but somehow people believe they did.

So the next logical question, is what did China expect to do about aircraft that do not comply?

Well naturally that would differ on the situation, wouldn't it? If those aircraft are deep in the ADIZ they'll be intercepted. If they're barely skimming the edge, fighters might be deployed, but if they're already on a vector out they'll leave them there. No air patrol has a 24/7 presence, and it's impossible to intercept another aircraft in your ADIZ if they poke in for a few minutes and then fly out, because by then your aircraft will only be up in the air.

I think what it comes down to is that the politics from establishing/extending an ADIZ into disputed territory creates a burden for China to back up its escalated posture. I myself think that the significance of China's move to establish an ADIZ was overblown by the press, but I think that the US being the first to test this new posture and not Japan definitely changed China's calculus on the matter, especially if it was seen to also have an effect on Japan's calculus (which I think it has). In other words, I think the predominant interpretation over China's non-response is accurate in the level of significance it places, but inaccurate over the reasons why it was significant.

 

[SteelBird]

Re: US military news thread

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Wow. ^^^. I wonder what the Chinese response will be if these missions continue? The Chinese stated they would not tolerate violations of that airspace..

Another thing both Nimitz & George Washington CSG with complete air wings are operating in a area just west of this zone.

Just wish that there would not be any "擦枪走火" (swipe the gun and cause a misfire; accidentally spark a conflict) accident. As the ADIZ is newly established, this is very sensitive. Continue to observer.

 

[aquauant]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

Intrusions are just normal part of ADIZ business; some are challenged, some not and some not even detected (e.g. drug planes flying into US from border). No big deal. But it is amusing to see Americans behave like this, especially the media, self-patting for such trivial actions. Our media also do that but at least most of us are level-headed enough to see beyond the headline.